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New! Posted on March 16th.
As the NCAA tournament is only four days away...

...let's look at handicapping tournament games. I am going to look at conference tournaments first to help us in our handicapping. Underdogs have had tremendous success in conference tournament play. In fact, many underdogs have won outright. One reason for these underdog outright wins is that these games are being played on neutral courts. Home teams win about 70% of all games played. When teams are placed on a neutral court, anything can happen, which explains why underdogs have done so well. When oddsmakers made spreads for games on neutral courts, they give a team that the public obviously thinks is better about a 3-8 point advantage. However, not many favorites have won by more than ten points. Many of these conference games have been close, but before you go crazy on underdogs in NCAA tournament play, let's look at a few other factors. Many of these teams have already faced each other twice this season, therefore there are no surprises and the underdogs are not shaken by the much better favorite. Also, some of the favorites already have NCAA tournament spots secured and have not been getting up for games against lesser opponents. On Tuesday I will discuss further on how to successfully handicap the NCAA tournament games.

Posted on February 16th.
Let's discuss college basketball...

...handicapping fundamentals. Many times you see the average taking large favorites both at home and on the road. Large road favorites, especially teams favored by dougle digits, are usually poor selections. For example, lets look at Oklahoma State at Texas A&M. Oklahoma State won the game outright as a 13 point favorite on the road!!! However, if I was forced to make a selection on this game, I would have leaned toward A&M. The Aggies entered this contest winning their last five games straight up and against the spread, including a three point win at Oklahoma State a few weeks ago. In addition, Texas A&M has a huge home court advantage, winning each home game by an average of twenty points. Certainly, Texas A&M has the ability to win by 13 points or more, especially since the Cowboys had not won on the road yet this season. However, A&M came out flat in this game, and they were never able to rebound. They let Oklahoma State hang out. The Aggies did not get up for this game at all and it showed. Before selecting a large favorite, there must be many reasons supporting the selection. The most important thing when looking at a large favorite is motivation. Did the team giving points just come off of a tough, emotional win? Do they have their next game against their biggest rival or best team in the conference? If any of these answers are yes, then chances are the favorite will not be motivated to blowout a much weaker team. Motivation is the explanation for Texas A&M beating Texas at home by 17 points but losing to Oklahoma State by 3 points. Motivation and let down games are critical to selecting winners in college basketball.

Posted on February 3rd.
I am going to once again discuss NBA handicapping, as I continue...

...my adventure to beat the books in pro basketball. First, it is essential to limit the number of games wagered on. Anytime I look at some of the so-called expert selections, the more games they select on a given night, the worse they do. The reason for this trend is that, like I said numerous times, bookmakers have the most accurate lines on NBA games, than other sport (college or pro). Look at any given night which features more than a handful of games. Very often you see most sides fall within five points or less of the number. Now totals are somewhat of a different story, but still very accurate. It is almost impossible to pick a bunch of random NBA games and win long term. Here are some of the things to look for that I have found successful. Look for recent trends that people may have not caught on to yet. For example, the Bulls have been without Ben Gordon and Luol Deng in four games recently. They proceeded to score 67, 77, 77, and 96 points. They were held to those low point totals by Phoenix, Minnesota (twice), and Charlotte, some of the worst defensive scoring teams in the league. All four games were easily under the total, and they were 1-3 against the spread, only beating Minnesota at home to cover. The books however did not adjust much at all, especially in totals. Another recent trend is the Trail Blazers slide the past few games, Seattle's three game win streak, and Utah's good performance of late. Now some of these trends I still wouldn't go with, but they are reasons not to pick the other team. A second way to beat the books, is to look for NBA games which feature totals which are closer to those two team's averages instead of what is accurate. A perfect example of that is today's game, Dallas at Detroit. According to each team's average points scored and given up, the final score today would have been about 97-93 for a total of 190 points. However, a closer look at each team showed that when they have played against good teams with decent defenses, the combined points scored have been much lower. Add to that fact that Dallas scored much less on the road and allowed less points, in addition to Detroit allowing less than 90 points per game at home. The books released a total of 186, only four points off what the average should be!!! Basically they only adjusted for the absences of Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse to injuries. These two examples are just a few of the ways to beat the books. However, you must find examples like these to be successful, as handicapping many games will not lead to success.

Posted on January 10th.
College basketball teams are about halfway through the regular season...

...now and beginning conference play. A number of teams have progressed/regressed since the start of the season. Noticing these changes is essential to being successful in college basketball. For example, New Mexico State lost their head coach, Reggie Theus, to the Sacramento Kings. As a result, they really struggled to start the season, adjusting to a new system. However, they have started to turn the corner, and they have been playing much better basketball. I feel they are still undervalued. Louisville and Wisconsin Milwaukee are also examples of teams who have begun to overcome previous personnel issues and are undervalued. Auburn does not have very much depth, and they will probably really struggle through the rest of the season. Louisville has turned a corner and have started to play up to their potential. This change is because of getting Juan Palacios and David Padgett back from injuries. NBA-Knowing which team is motivated for a given game is so crucial to successfully betting NBA games. A perfect example is tonight's Detroit at San Antonio game. Detroit was determined to overcome their two game losing streak and soundly defeated the Spurs. It is crucial to understand how much motivation a team has going to into a game, especially in a long regular season. Teams will have varying amounts of motivation throughout the season.

Posted on January 9th.
Dayton is a very good team this year...

...especially at home in big games. Iowa is going to struggle on the road in the Big Ten this year while they implement new coach Franklickliter's system. Try to look for letdown games. Clemson was coming off an overtime loss to UNC, and ended up losing their next game at home against a young Charlotte squad. St. Joseph's should be a good road play this season. LSU is really going to struggle this season, as they have a very young team. Mississippi and Drake have proven so far that they are for real. Minnesota and Arizona State have been surprising this year, especially at home. NBA-Seattle really struggles to score on the road, routinely scoring under 90 points. New York has had some success at home, so be careful of going against them at Madison Square Garden. Portland and the LA Lakers continue on their streaks. The Lakers have been an offensive machine, and Portland is a great play at home, but not so much on the road. Brandon Roy is the key to their success. Miami has really struggled this season with all their injuries and an aging Shaq. I cannot see them being a good play for awhile.

Posted on January 8th.
Southern Illinois is very tough at home...

...In fact, home court advantage is very significant in the Missouri Valley Conference. Brown is a very under-rated team. Florida will improve alot throughout the season, and they looked impressive with a big road win over Alabama. Marquette has struggled in their last two games, be cafeful of taking this team as a large favorite. NBA-Washington is an over-rated team, and Houston proved that they are under-rated and have been playing better without Tracy McGrady. Sacramento, Charlotte, Cleveland, and Utah are very dominant at home. Look for good plays to make with Charlotte at home, especially when they are an underdog.

Posted on January 7th.
Wisconsin Milwaukee has developed into a complete team...

...with the loss of some starters this season. They are focused and are playing very good basketball as a team. Colorado is still not a very good team with their blowout loss at home to Tulsa. NBA-Golden State plays very well at home, particularly in big games. When motivated, Phoenix can score alot and easily blow out teams.

Posted on January 6th.
Clemson proved they are for real this season....

...with their overtime loss at home to UNC. In fact, they were leading throughout the game, but the Tigers could finish the Tar Heels at the end. Clemson should finish the season near the top of the ACC. Illinois showed they are not as talented this season with a home loss to a scrappy Penn State team. Penn State may be a team to make some plays on this season, particularly as a home underdog or large road underdog to some of the better Big Ten teams. Xavier is the real deal this year. The loss of starting guard Levance Fields will hurt Pittsburgh, but they proved against Villanova that the injury will not stop them from playing tough. Villanova has not looked particularly impressive so far this season though. West Virginia will improve throughout the season with new head coach Bob Huggins.

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