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College Football Picks - Profiles

Nov 21

Kent State at Temple 1:00pm EST
Selection:  KENT STATE +11 (L)
Profile:  Temple has shocked the college football world with their vastly improved season this year and are in position to play in the MAC Championship Game.  However, they have a game next week against Northern Illinois that they will have to win in order to clinch their half of the MAC.  This game is a potential huge look ahead spot for a young team that isn’t used to being in this position before.  The Owls have several wins this season that have been decided by 10 points or less, even against weaker teams.  Ball State and Miami of Ohio played them very tight this season, despite being the worst teams in the conference.  Meanwhile, Kent State has quietly covered in six of their last seven games.  They have also played well against the better teams in conference such as Bowling Green, Western Michigan, and Ohio.  Kent State’s good rush defense should be able to contain Temple’s rush based offense as well.  The Golden Flashes have an offense focused on the pass game, while Temple has given up some yards through the air this season.  Look for this game to be close and come down to the wire.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Wisconsin at Northwestern 3:30pm EST
Selection:  NORTHWESTERN +7 (W)
Profile:  Wisconsin is coming off of a big home win last week and now has to go on the road and play a Northwestern team that they won’t be taking as seriously.  The Badgers also have a trip to Hawaii in two weeks to look forward too as well.  They are kind of caught in no mans land here, as they have secured a good bowl, but they are out of contention for a BCS bowl or Big 10 title.  This game is a classic letdown spot for the Badgers.  To make matters worse, Northwestern’s defensive coordinator was fired from the same job at Wisconsin by head coach Bret Bielema, so there is no doubt that the Badgers will face a more focused defense than they otherwise would have.  Throughout the season Northwestern has done a fairly good job in slowing down opposing rushing attacks.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin has struggled against quick pass spread offenses like Northwestern.  Indiana almost won straight up against them just a few games ago, putting up 28 points against them.  Northwestern has also been playing better and better throughout the season.  Look for the Wildcats to keep this game close and have a chance to win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Air Force at BYU 3:30pm EST
Selection:  AIR FORCE +10 (L)
Profile:  BYU is in a very tough spot in this game, as they have their huge in-state rivalry game against Utah next week.  The Cougars also aren’t going to qualify for a BCS bowl at-large bid, so they really don’t have too much to play for in this game.  Their lack of focus was evident last week against a winless New Mexico team, barely escaping with a five point win.  Air Force is arguably the worst team that BYU could have drawn before the Utah game.  The Falcons option offense and tough defense are going to give an unmotivated Cougars team a huge challenge.  In addition, Air Force’s offense is really clicking since starting quarterback Tim Jefferson returned to the line-up.  They have put up 114 points total in their last 3 games, and I expect them to have a good performance against a defense that has given up 20 or more points to teams like San Diego State, UNLV, and Colorado State.  Air Force has played very well on the road this season, while BYU is 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 home games.  Look for this game to be very close, and Air Force has a chance to at the outright win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Baylor at Texas A&M 3:30pm EST
Selection:  TEXAS A&M -5 (W)
Profile:  I feel there is excellent value here based on recent performances of these teams.  Texas A&M is better than they have looked recently and has suffered through a brutal stretch of playing four road games in five games, including games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  The Aggies have played much better at home this season, going 4-1 while just 1-3 on the road.  There is good value to this selection after A&M was absolutely destroyed last week against Oklahoma.  I expect the Aggies to bring a strong effort in this game with an offense that is still fairly potent, especially against weaker teams.  Meanwhile, Baylor still is not a quality team, especially since they are without star quarterback Robert Griffin.  The Bears have been dominated by every conference team they have faced this season, besides their lone win against a Missouri team that just didn’t show up for that game.  A&M will bring their maximum effort in this game, and I expect them to get a dominant win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

California at Stanford 7:30pm EST
Selection:  STANFORD -7.5 (L)
Profile:  Most experts are predicting a huge letdown here for Stanford after two big wins over Oregon and USC.  However, most people thought that the Cardinal were destined to get blown out last week against USC after their big home win against Oregon.  I feel that last week’s dominating performance shows that the betting public just doesn’t have a grasp on how good this team is.  The Cardinal are truly one of the better teams in college football, especially with their balanced potent offense.  Toby Gerhart should be included in talks for the Heisman Trophy, as he is a physical and agile runner, capable of punishing opposing offenses.  The biggest change in Stanford though has been the play of freshman quarterback Andrew Luck.  He is deceptively fast and makes accurate throws and good decisions.  California is the team poised for a letdown, not Stanford.  The Bears beat Arizona last week in a game that they should have lost if not for several mistakes by the Wildcats.  I feel that California is a soft team that isn’t mentally tough, and they are still without their star running back Jahvid Best.  Kevin Riley is not a good quarterback, and I don’t think the Bears will be able to keep pace with the high scoring Stanford offense.  Look for Stanford to dominate this team from start to finish.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Kansas State at Nebraska 7:45pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 45 POINTS (W)
Profile:  Nebraska’s defense is vastly improved under second year head coach Bo Pelini.  They have held seven of their last ten opponents to 12 points or less, and they completely shutdown Oklahoma’s offense, limiting them to three points.  Meanwhile, Nebraska’s offense has really struggled throughout the season, especially when they can’t run the ball.  They are going to struggle to run the ball in this game against a Kansas State defense that has limited opposing rushing attacks to an average of 120 yards over the last three games.  Meanwhile, Nebraska will have no problem shutting down a Kansas State offense that primarily runs the ball.  The strength of the Huskers defense is defending the run.  Eight of Nebraska’s last ten games have gone under the total as well.  Look for this game to be low scoring and stay well under the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Kentucky at Georgia 7:45pm EST
Selection:  KENTUCKY +9.5 (W)
Profile:  Georgia has done very little to warrant being this high of a favorite against an under-rated Kentucky team.  The Bulldogs only wins by 10 points or more have come against Vanderbilt, Tennessee Tech, and an Arkansas team that they were trailing throughout the game.  This spot is also a little tough for Georgia, as they face in-state rival Georgia Tech next week.  The Bulldogs are looking for revenge in that game after they suffered an embarrassing and rare loss to the Yellow Jackets.  Meanwhile, Kentucky is the healthiest they have been all season, and they have been a great road team all season, going 4-0 against the spread.  One of those wins came at Auburn, which shows they can beat a quality opponent away from home.  Kentucky’s running based offense has put up 20 points or more in every game this season except against Florida.  They should have no problem moving the ball in this game against a questionable Georgia defense.  Look for Kentucky to cover this number and challenge for the outright win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oregon at Arizona 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 60 POINTS (W)
Profile:  Look for this game to be a high flying shootout.  Oregon’s offense is just unstoppable right now, putting up 40 points or more in all but one Pac-10 game this season.  That’s not good news for an Arizona defense that got torched by the best offenses on their schedule like Stanford, Oregon State, and Washington.  All of those teams were able to put up over 30 points against them.  Last season’s game saw Oregon put up 55 points in high scoring shootout that combined for 100 points.  Arizona’s offense is missing some playmakers from last year’s offense, but they are still able to move the ball effectively.  Last week a horrible Arizona State offense was able to put up 21 points against them, and I expect Arizona to be forced into a shootout similar to last year.  Nick Foles is a very capable quarterback and has been playing better and better throughout the season.  He will also be aided by playing at home and having his star running back Nic Grigsby back for this game.  Running back Keola Antolin is questionable for this game, but I expect him to play and be somewhat effective.  Look for this game to be high scoring and soar over the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Nov 20

Boise State at Utah State 9:30pm EST
Selection:  OVER 61 POINTS (W)
Profile:  Boise State’s offense has been unstoppable this season, and they won’t get slowed down in this game.  The Broncos absolutely torched Idaho last week, putting up 63 points in their highest output of the season.  Boise has scored 45 points or more in their last 4 games as well.  Meanwhile, Utah State’s offense has been playing fairly well this season.  The Aggies have put up 23 points or more in their last 5 games, and their offense has been improving steadily throughout the season.  The main reason for their improvement is quarterback Diondre Borel.  He has completed 58% of his passes and has a 13/3 touchdown to interception ratio on the season.  Boise State has to be slightly motivated to have style points for the rest of the season, as they try to get one of the at-large BCS bids.  Because of that I expect Chris Peterson to keep his starting offense on the field the entire game.  Look for Boise to score between 40 and 50 points, while Utah State will score over 20 points.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Nov 18

Buffalo at Miami (OH) 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 51 POINTS (W)
Profile:  These offenses match up very well against their opposing defenses in this game.  Miami has incorporated a pass first offense under freshman quarterback Zac Dysert.  The Redhawks offense has been fairly productive over the last few weeks before stalling in the 2nd half of last week’s game.  They put up 14 points in the 1st half but were shutout in the 2nd half.  However the Bulls have given up an average of 310 yards per game through the air to opposing offenses.  Meanwhile, Buffalo’s offense is primarily a rush based offense, averaging almost 200 yards per game on the ground.  They should have no problem running through a porous Redhawks defense that has given up about 200 yards per game recently to opposing rushing attacks.  Look for this game to be higher scoring with both teams having approximately 30 points.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Nov 14

PAC 10 GAME OF THE YEAR
Arizona at California 3:30pm EST
Selection:  ARIZONA -1 (L)
Profile:  Oddsmakers have overvalued California all season, and the betting public hasn’t caught on yet.  The Bears got totally outplayed last week against Oregon State, even before Jahvid Best went out of the game.  Their defense let Sean Canfield and the Beavers offense do whatever they wanted in moving the ball up and down the field.  I don’t like saying if Team A beats Team B and Team B beats Team C then Team A will automatically beat Team C.  However, Arizona proved to be the better team when they faced Oregon State a few weeks ago.  They moved the ball up and down the field and did a decent job containing the Beavers offense, despite giving up points late in the game.  Arizona has quietly improved throughout the season.  In addition, they are in a great spot in this game.  The Wildcats faced lowly Washington State last week and had a bye week before that game.  Meanwhile, California has to be demoralized entering this game.  They probably have lost their All-American tailback Jahvid Best for the season because of his freakish injury last week.  It was clear that the offense wasn’t the same after he left the line-up.  Best is the centerpiece of everything they do, so I look for the offense to struggle again.  The Bears are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games.  They have been dominated by the best teams in the PAC-10 and have struggled to beat the weakest teams in the conference.  California doesn’t have a strong homefield advantage either this season.  Look for Arizona to come in and get an easy road win.
5 UNIT SELECTION

Clemson at N.C. State 12:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 56.5 POINTS (W)
Profile:  Clemson’s defense is still missing their best player in defensive end Da’Quan Bowers, and his absence was felt last week.  N.C. State’s offense should be able to move the ball enough against a Tigers defense that has struggled on the road this season.  Clemson has given up 37, 24, and 30 points away from home this season, and Russell Wilson, who is the best quarterback in the ACC, should be able to put points on the board.  The Tigers are also coming off of a big home win against Florida State, so I don’t expect the intensity to be there on the defensive side of the ball.  Meanwhile, N.C. State’s defense is horrible.  They have given up 30 points or more to every Division I opponent this season, except South Carolina.  That side of the ball is just riddled with injuries and simply can’t stop anyone.  Florida State, Boston College, and Duke put up a combined 147 points against them in the last month.  They simply won’t slow down Clemson’s gifted athletes, most notably C.J. Spiller.  N.C. State will be trying to match scores throughout.  Look for this game to be high scoring and easily fly over the total.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Michigan State at Purdue 12:00pm EST
Selection:  MICHIGAN STATE -3 (T)
Profile:  Michigan State is flat out the better of these two teams.  They need this game to secure a bowl spot, as they have Penn State looming next week to close out the regular season.  Look for a focused effort out of the Spartans as a result.  Purdue is coming off a big road win last week at Michigan, so they won’t be focused for this contest.  The Spartans have won and covered against the Boilermakers the last two seasons as well.  With this point spread, all Michigan State has to do is get the win to get the cover, and I expect that to happen.  Purdue has one of the worst defenses in the Big 10 as well, which will allow Michigan State to move the ball up and down the field.  Look for the Spartans to get the win and point spread cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Michigan at Wisconsin 12:00pm EST
Selection:  WISCONSIN -8.5 (W)
Profile:  Michigan has given up 30 points or more in their last 4 games against Division I opponents.  Their defense is absolutely horrendous right now.  Now they have to go on the road to play one of the best teams in the Big 10 after suffering a bad loss last week to Purdue, in a game that they were winning handily.  Wisconsin has plenty to play for, as they are sitting at 7-2 on the season.  They have also played well at home against Purdue and Michigan State, the only real conference games they have played other than Iowa.  In fact, the Badgers were even leading that game after the 1st half as well.  Michigan also has the Ohio State game looming next week, so this is a horrible spot for them.  Last season Michigan lost outright at home to Northwestern in the week before the Ohio State game.  Look for the Badgers to blow out an unfocused and demoralized Wolverines team.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Missouri at Kansas State 12:30pm EST
Selection:  KANSAS STATE +1 (L)
Profile:  Missouri is a wreck right now.  They are coming off of a disappointing home loss to Baylor, in a game that they were controlling early on.  The spot is a little tough for Kansas State as well because of their win over in-state rival Kansas last week.  However, I feel that head coach Bill Snyder will keep them focused in this game.  The Wildcats are playing better and better with each passing week, while Missouri is regressing.  There are also reports of a great deal of in-house fighting between the team and coaches.  Look for Kansas State to be the much more disciplined and focused team.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Stanford at USC 3:30pm EST
Selection:  OVER 56.5 POINTS (W)
Profile:  USC has been struggling lately, but most people don’t realize that they were missing two key pieces on offense.  They haven’t had their starting fullback the last few weeks, and their starting tight end has been banged up and didn’t play last week.  These two players are key parts of the offense and both are returning this week.  Starting wide receiver Damien Williams isn’t expected to play, but I expect USC’s offense to play well enough.  I expect the Trojans to run the ball a great deal in this game with their explosive running game, mainly because they have their starting fullback back this week.  Stanford’s defense has been horrendous recently but has been shielded by their vastly improved offense.  Freshman quarterback Andrew Luck is no longer a freshman after playing almost the whole season.  USC is dealing with a banged up and struggling defense, and I expect Stanford to move the ball all day.  The Cardinal offense has played well against the Trojans the last two seasons, and I expect them to have no problem putting up close to 30 points in this game.  Look for this team to be high scoring and go over the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Fresno State at Nevada 4:00pm EST
Selection:  NEVADA -7 (W)
Profile:  This game is all about match-ups.  The Wolfpack have one of the best rushing attacks in college football, and they have been playing better and better.  Meanwhile, Fresno State also loves to rush the football, and their offense is primarily focused on the running game.  They don’t throw for more than over 150 yards very often.  That doesn’t match up well against Nevada’s good rush defense.  The way to exploit Nevada is through the air, not on the ground.  The Wolfpack have a tremendous deal of momentum heading into this game.  Last season Nevada absolutely hammered Fresno State, and the game wasn’t as close as the 41-28 score indicated, even though the game was at Fresno State.  In that game the Wolfpack out gained them by a 600-322 margin, and one of the Bulldogs scores came on a kickoff return.  Look for Nevada to get a blowout win at home.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh 8:00pm EST
Selection:  NOTRE DAME +7 (W)
Profile:  This game is a classic over-reaction by people to recent results.  Notre Dame is coming off of an embarrassing loss to Navy, while Pittsburgh has started the season very well and could be undefeated if not for a late game collapse to N.C. State.  However, people forget that last season’s game between these two teams was very close and Notre Dame was one play away from winning 24-17.  The Fighting Irish are a better team this season, with a much better offense.  Pittsburgh is a good team too, but they don’t have the urgency that Notre Dame has entering this game.  The media is already predicting that Charlie Weis will get fired, so I expect his team to rally around him in this game.  I don’t think Pittsburgh’s head coach Dave Wannstadt is particularly good in this role of a home favorite expected to win.  His teams are much better as an underdog that no one expects to win.  The Panthers also don’t have a strong home field advantage either.  The city is an NFL town, so Notre Dame should have no problem playing in the Steelers stadium.  The Irish always play up or down to their opponents, which is how they lost to Navy but almost beat USC.  I expect this game to be back and forth with Notre Dame having an excellent chance to win outright or lose by just a field goal.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Nov 13

West Virginia at Cincinnati 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 54.5 POINTS (L)
Profile:  Cincinnati’s offense was unstoppable against Connecticut last Saturday, as they were able to score on almost every possession.  I feel that quarterback Zach Collaros is a significant upgrade over starting quarterback Tony Pike because of the combination of his mobility and accuracy.  Collaros is expected to start in this game, although Pike will likely take over duties after this game.  I think that move is a mistake, but at least Collaros will play in this game.  West Virginia has a better offense than Connecticut and should be able to get some big scoring plays with their fast athletes and spread offense.  Cincinnati’s defense looked very vulnerable last week against Connecticut, and I expect this game to be back and forth throughout.  Jarrett Brown and Noel Devine are going to play as well.  Weather will not be a factor either, as temperatures are expected to be in the 40’s with no precipitation or wind.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Nov 12

Bowling Green at Miami(OH) 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 57.5 POINTS (L)
Profile:  Oddsmakers set this total too low and the betting public is pouncing all over it.  These two offenses are quietly explosive, as both teams have good quarterbacks capable of throwing down the field and lighting up the scoreboard.  Bowling Green has scored 30 points or more in 4 out of their last 5 games.  Meanwhile, Miami’s quarterback Zac Dysert has been getting better and better with each week.  The Redhawks have scored over 30 points in the last two weeks, and there is no reason why they can’t do the same against a Bowling Green defense that has given up 24 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games.  Look for this game to be back and forth with each team scoring around 30 points or more.  Weather also will not be a factor in this game, so both teams should be airing the ball out the entire game.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Nov 11

Toledo at Central Michigan 8:00pm EST
Selection:  CENTRAL MICHIGAN -17 (W)
Profile:  Central Michigan comes into this game off of a tough blowout loss at Boston College, in a game that they thought they had a chance to win.  However, they were in a tough situation in that game.  That was their third straight game and hadn’t had a week off all year.  However, they haven’t played a game in ten days and have used the extra time to heal and rest.  Meanwhile, Toledo’s defense has been horrendous this season.  They have given up 30 points or more to every team this season except one, and now they have to face one of the best offenses on their schedule.  Central Michigan quarterback Dan Lefevour is expected to be at 100% for this game, so the Chippewas should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard.  The Rockets first and second string quarterbacks are banged up for this game, but starter Aaron Opelt is expected to play but not be at 100%.  Toledo also has a history of losing teams this season by this high of a point spread.  Temple, Western Michigan, Purdue, and Ohio State all beat the Rockets by around this point spread, so Central Michigan should have no problem covering as well.  They also have the motivation to have a convincing win, as they stumbled down the stretch last year and don’t want a repeat performance.  Look for the Chippewas to get a blowout home win and point spread cover.  It should also be noted that the sharpest sportsbook was one of the first books to move this line from -17 to -17.5.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Nov 7

Illinois at Minnesota 12:00pm EST
Selection:  ILLINOIS +7 (W)
Profile:  Minnesota is without their star wide receiver and best player Eric Decker for this game.  They were without him last game in their win against Michigan State, but I look for a letdown here as a result.  The Golden Gophers only need one more win to get bowl eligible, but they have South Dakota State looming next week.  Because of that, I don’t expect a huge effort here, as they know that they are basically bowl eligible with a win next week.  Meanwhile, Illinois has been a disaster all season, but they have played well the last two weeks, which resulted in a blowout win over Michigan last week.  The Illini rushed based offense should do well against the Gophers porous rush defense.  Illinois is still fighting this season, and they should be able to catch Minnesota in a letdown spot after a big win last week.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Northwestern at Iowa 12:00pm EST
Selection:  NORTHWESTERN +15.5 (W)
Profile:  Iowa did have a scare against Indiana last week, so most people think that they will be focused for this game.  However, I feel that they will come out nervous in this game, as it is a horrible situation for them.  They have all of the pressure of staying undefeated, but they also have a road game at Ohio State looming next week.  In addition, they have to hear from their friends and family all week about staying undefeated.  Northwestern’s quick passing offense will cause Iowa’s defense fits, just like Indiana’s quick passing offense did last week.  In fact, the Hoosiers would have covered that game if not for having a severe disadvantage with the wind in the 4th quarter.  Northwestern has played well against good competition this season, and were very close to getting a point spread cover against Penn State before falling apart in the 4th quarter.  Starting quarterback Mike Kafka will play as well.  Iowa simply doesn’t beat teams by margin, and I don’t expect them to in this game either given all of the factors that they have to deal with.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Kansas at Kansas State 12:30pm EST
Selection:  KANSAS STATE +3 (W)
Profile:  This game is between two teams going in different directions.  Kansas is reeling now, losing three straight, and quarterback Todd Reesing is banged up.  The Jayhawks defense has just been horrendous in conference play giving up an average of 36 points per game, even against weaker teams like Iowa State and Colorado.  Kansas State has dramatically improved this season under new head coach Bill Snyder, and they almost got a comeback win against Oklahoma last week.  He knows the importance of winning this in-state rivalry, so I expect his team to be very focused and prepared.  The Wildcats rush based offense should have a great deal of success against Kansas, and I expect them to play a ball control style of offense, keeping the ball out of Reesing’s hands.  Look for Kansas State to get the win against a slumping Kansas team.
3 UNIT SELECTION
***MAKE SURE TO SHOP AROUND AND GET THIS LINE AT +3***

Texas A&M at Colorado 1:30pm EST
Selection:  TEXAS A&M -3 (L)
Profile:  Texas A&M’s offense is just too potent for Colorado to keep up with.  The Aggies quarterback Jerrod Johnson has posted a ridiculous 20/3 touchdown to interception ratio this season and is in full command of the offense.  They should have no problem moving the ball against Colorado’s defense that gave up 36 points to an average Missouri offense.  The Buffalo players know that they have a lame duck coach in Dan Hawkins, who will be fired at the end of the season.  They didn’t show fight in their last game, and I don’t expect a strong effort here either.  Texas A&M has shown steady improvement this season, and I expect them to have no problem beating Colorado, even with a lackluster effort.  The spot is not good for A&M with Oklahoma looming next week, but I don’t think it will matter because of Colorado giving up on the season.  Weather will not be a factor either, so the Aggies pass happy offense will move the ball at will.  Look for Texas A&M to get the road win and cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oregon at Stanford 7:30pm EST
Selection:  OVER 58.5 POINTS (W)
Profile:  I don’t expect a focused effort from Oregon at all in this game because of their big win over USC last week.  However, I feel that their lack of effort will be on the defensive side of the ball, as their offense is simply too potent for a questionable Stanford defense to slow down.  The Ducks have one of the best offenses in the country right now, evident by their dominance over the Trojans last week.  However, USC did move the ball against them for the first half of the game, before having difficulties late.  Freshmen quarterback Andrew Luck has almost a full season under his belt now and has been playing better and better with each week.  He is arguably the best freshman quarterback in the country right now, and he should have a big game with the aid of running back Toby Gearhart.  Stanford’s offense has quietly been very potent lately, and I expect this game to be a back and forth high scoring game.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Duke at North Carolina 3:30pm EST
Selection:  DUKE +10 (L)
Profile:  Duke matches up well against North Carolina.  The Blue Devils have almost a completely pass oriented offense, which should fare well against a North Carolina defense that can be exploited through the air while being stout against the run.  Florida State showed that the Tar Heels secondary is questionable.  Meanwhile, North Carolina doesn’t have an explosive offense, which will make it harder for them to cover a double digit number.  The Tar Heels are primarily a rush based offense, but the Blue Devils have limited opponents on the ground this season.  Duke is one of the best coached teams in the ACC under 2nd year coach David Cutcliffe, who had turned around Mississippi’s program during the Eli Manning years.  Duke beat North Carolina outright last year as well.  North Carolina is coming off of a big road win at Virginia Tech, so their focus won’t be 100% in this game.  Look for Duke to take this game down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oregon State at California 7:00pm EST
Selection:  OREGON STATE +7 (W)
Profile:  Oregon State is being severely disrespected by the betting public in this situation, while California is getting too much credit.  The Bears barely pulled out a win last week against a mediocre at best Arizona State team, now they are a full touchdown favorite against a very good Oregon State team.  The Beavers have a good rush defense, so they should be able to contain Cal running back Jahvid Best.  Oregon State’s offense is more than capable of keeping this game close, as they have scored 26 points or more in Pac-10 games.  The Beavers have a very balanced offense this season, as Sean Canfield has done a good job managing the offense from the quarterback position.  California simply isn’t a very dynamic offense, as Kevin Riley isn’t able to produce big plays or consistently lead the offense with his arm.  Look for the Beavers to cover this spread or win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Florida State at Clemson 7:45pm EST
Selection:  FLORIDA STATE +8.5 (L)
Profile:  Florida State has some good advantages in this game.  Their defensive coordinator, Mickey Andrews, has announced that he is retiring after this season.  Several of his players have said that they want to come out with a strong effort in this game as a result.  They will also be aided by some players getting healthy as well.  Seminoles starting quarterback Christian Ponder is going to play in this game, despite having sore ribs.  He was able to play well through the injury last week, and I expect him to be fine in this game.  Clemson loves to pressure the quarterback on defense, but Florida State’s offense matches up well against them with their quick, screen passing offense.  They use a lot of misdirection as well, which should keep the Tigers pass rush on guard the whole game.  The Tigers don’t have a high scoring offense, which makes it much harder to beat a Florida State team by margin, especially since the Seminoles have been gaining momentum over the last few games.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oklahoma at Nebraska 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OKLAHOMA -4 (L)
Profile:  People talk about buying low and selling high with sports betting, and this game is an ideal case of that.  No one wants to back the Sooners now, and they are coming off of a point spread loss last week against Kansas State.  However, the oddsmakers and betting public have adjusted this line way too much.  Oklahoma will come in with a focused effort in this game because of losing three games already this season.  People fail to realize that this team is still one of the most talented line-ups in the country, but they have played a very tough schedule.  They could very well be undefeated right now, even without Sam Bradford, as they have led in all three of their losses this season.  Their defense matches up very well against Nebraska’s weak rush based offense, and the Cornhuskers have lost their last two games at home as well.  Landry Jones and the Sooners have shown an ability to play well on the road and should have no problem getting a point spread covering win here.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Connecticut at Cincinnati 8:00pm EST
Selection:  CONNECTICUT +17.5 (W)
Profile:  Cincinnati is a quality team, no doubt, but they are getting way too much credit with this inflated point spread.  The Bearcats have beat up on two of the worst teams in the Big East the last two weeks in Syracuse and Louisville.  As a result they look much better than they truly are, resulted in this inflated line.  Meanwhile, Connecticut could very well be the best 4-4 team in the country, as they have lost their four games by a total of 13 points.  What is even more remarkable is that the Huskies have led in all four games, only to let them slip away in the final seconds of the 4th quarter.  Connecticut will bring their maximum effort in this game, as they truly believe that they have a chance to knock off the only undefeated conference team.  Cincinnati is the hunted in this contest, and they may overlook the Huskies because of their remaining schedule.  The Bearcats have games against West Virginia next week, Illinois, and Pittsburgh to close out their schedule.  Cincinnati is more of a grinding team, as they don’t usually completely blowout teams.  This spread is too high, and the Huskies will be able to take this game down to the wire against a Bearcats team looking ahead to the next few weeks.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Nov 5

Miami(OH) at Temple 7:30pm EST
Selection:  MIAMI(OH) +17.5 (W)
Profile:  Temple is coming off of a big win over Navy as a touchdown underdog, and now they face conference bottom feeder Miami(OH).  The Owls more than likely secured a bowl berth with that win, as they now have six wins on the season.  It will be hard for them to get up for this game with short preparation, especially since the players have probably been hearing nothing but praise from people around them over the last few days.  Miami(OH), while having a horrible outright record, have kept games much closer recently.  The Redhawks have quietly gone 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games, including winning outright last week against Toledo.  Freshman quarterback Zac Dysert has been playing better, and he should be able to put up enough points to keep this game relatively close.  Temple is not a high scoring team, so covering this spread after such a big win is going to be tough for them.  The Owls have scored 27 points or less in 6 out of their last 8 games this season, and I look for them to have problem scoring against a decent Miami(OH) defense.  Look for this game to be close and the Redhawks will get the point spread cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 31

Temple at Navy 3:30pm EST
Selection:  TEMPLE +7 (W)
Profile:  The biggest game that Navy plays all year, other than their rivalry game against Army, is the Notre Dame game.  It’s not surprising that the Midshipmen have struggled tremendously the week before facing the Fighting Irish.  Usually they have a week off to prepare for the game, but this year they do not.  Temple is a bad draw for Navy in this situation for a few reasons.  First, the Owls played them tough last year, losing the game in overtime.  Temple has also faced Navy four years in a row, so all of their players will be familiar with the triple option offense.  The Owls have also won five straight games and shown steady improvement throughout the season.  This game is also a brutal scheduling spot for Navy, as they are coming off of a win against Wake Forest, in addition to the previously mentioned Notre Dame game looming next week.  I look for Temple to keep this game close and have a chance to win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Iowa State at Texas A&M 3:30pm EST
Selection:  TEXAS A&M -6 (W)
Profile:  This spot is horrible for Iowa State, as they are coming off a very emotional road win at Nebraska.  In addition, the Cyclones starting quarterback is dealing with a bruised throwing hand and their starting running back is banged up with an injured groin.  Several Iowa State players are also dealing with a serious case of the flu this week, which has hindered their ability to practice.  Texas A&M’s offense is very explosive and capable of putting up points quickly.  Their passing game should be able to exploit Iowa State’s secondary as well.  Texas A&M hasn’t had a win in front of their home fans in over a month, so I expect them to come out very fired up after their road win at Texas Tech last week.  Look for the Aggies to get a dominant home win.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Air Force at Colorado State 4:00pm EST
Selection:  AIR FORCE -6.5 (W)
Profile:  Colorado State has been playing worse as the season has progressed.  The Rams are coming off of a 42-28 home loss to San Diego State last week.  Air Force is getting their starting quarterback, Tim Jefferson, back this week, and he appears to be very motivated to make a statement in this game.  His return should help the Falcons offense, which has struggled somewhat lately.  Their offense should have no problem getting going against a Colorado State defense that has been horrendous this season.  Air Force’s strength this season has been their defense.  The Falcons have one of the best defenses in the Mountain West Conference and has held every team on their schedule to 20 points or less in regulation.  I expect Air Force to dominate this game with their defense and an offense that should be play better with their starting quarterback returning.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Wyoming at Utah 8:00pm EST
Selection:  WYOMING +18 (W)
Profile:  Utah is a step below from last season’s Sugar Bowl winning team that beat Alabama.  However, they are still being priced at a similar level.  The Utes are just 2-5 against the spread this season, including several close wins over mid to lower level teams this season.  Utah simply hasn’t been able to blowout the weaker teams they have faced this season.  Wyoming has improved this season, and their freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels has made an impact on an offense that struggled at the beginning of the season.  Wyoming is a well coached team and will benefit from having two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Cowboys also played Air Force two weeks ago, the same team that Utah faced last week.  Wyoming played them very tough, losing by 10 points on the road, while Utah only beat them in overtime.  I expect the Cowboys to hang out in this game, as the Utes simply have no reason to win this game by margin.  Even if they wanted to though, I don’t think they have the offense capable of winning this game by more than 18 points.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Texas at Oklahoma State 8:00pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 54 POINTS (L)
Profile:  Texas has one of the most under-rated defenses in the country.  The Longhorns have only given up more than 20 points once this season, and they held Oklahoma to only 13 points.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has faced several easy defenses this season, which has allowed them to put offensive statistics that make them look much better than they truly are.  The Cowboys put up only 24 points against a Georgia defense that has played poorly this year and been gashed by several SEC teams.  I expect Texas to hold Oklahoma State to less than 20 points in this game.  Meanwhile, I also expect a motivated effort from the Cowboys defense because of playing at home.  Overall, the Longhorns have an over-rated offense in my opinion.  Colt McCoy has thrown 14 touchdowns but also 8 interceptions this year.  Texas relies on the run more than most people think, and Oklahoma State has only given up 73 yards per game on the ground over the last 3 games.  Look for this game to be very emotional and physical.  Take the under.
3 UNIT SELECTION

USC at Oregon 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 48 POINTS (W)
Profile:  USC has become a great over team the last few games, but oddsmakers have been slow to adapt to their change.  The Trojans lost several starters on their defense to the NFL draft, but they returned several play makers on offense and one of the best offensive lines in the country.  Quarterback Matt Barkley has half of a season under his belt and has been playing much better lately.  The Trojans have put up 30 points or more in their last three games.  Those contests have been against Notre Dame, Oregon State, and California as well.  Oregon’s defensive statistics have looked good recently, but they have come against several weaker opponents.  The Ducks offense has been very explosive lately as well, putting up 31 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games.  USC’s defense will have a tough time stopping them, and I expect this game to be back and forth throughout with each team matching each other score for score.
5 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 30

West Virginia at South Florida 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 47.5 POINTS (W)
Profile:  West Virginia’s defensive statistics look much better than they appear because of their relatively weak schedule.  They have played teams like Colorado, Marshall, Syracuse, East Carolina, and Liberty which have padded their stats.  However, Auburn and Connecticut had a great deal of offensive success against them.  I expect both defenses to give up plays and several plays in this game.  West Virginia has a big play offense, capable of putting points on the board quickly.  Their spread offense is also very hard to stop.  I don’t expect the Bulls to slow down West Virginia at all.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineer defense has given up several big plays this season, including to Connecticut and Colorado.  I look for this game to be back and forth throughout, with several quick scores that will send it over the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 24

Georgia Tech at Virginia 12:00pm EST
Selection:  VIRGINIA +5.5 (L)
Profile:  This spot is horrible for Georgia Tech, as they have go on the road to play Virginia, a team that not many Yellow Jacket players will get excited to face after getting a home win over Virginia Tech.  However, Virginia has dramatically improved from the first few games of this season.  They have three straight wins, as well as four straight point spread covers.  The key to the Cavaliers improvement is their stout defense.  That group has held opposing offenses to 6 points per game and 265 yards over their last 3 games.  In addition, Al Groh’s defense did very well against Paul Johnson’s triple option offense last year, holding them to only 17 points per game.  They have an athletic defensive front, which makes it easier for them to defend the option offense.  Meanwhile, Georgia Tech’s defense has been horrible this season.  They have given up an average of 450 yards and 32 points over their last three games.  Because of that poor defense and Virginia’s good defense, as well as a huge letdown situation for Tech, I expect Virginia to keep this game within the number or win outright.  Also starting quarterback Jameel Sewell is listed as probable for Virginia.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Penn State at Michigan 3:30pm EST
Selection:  MICHIGAN +4.5 (L)
Profile:  I feel that Penn State was over-rated entering this season, and they are still over-rated now.  The Nittany Lions showed their true colors in their double digit home loss to Iowa in primetime.  Penn State usually has a strong home field advantage, and they were pumped up for their rare primetime game against Iowa.  They also had a motivational edge in that game because the Hawkeyes ruined their undefeated season last year.  However, Penn State showed that they just weren’t good enough in that contest.  This game will be Penn State’s first true road test of the season, as their only other road game was at a horrendous Illinois team.  Meanwhile, I feel that Michigan is better than the betting public is giving them credit for.  The Wolverines played very tough at Michigan State and at Iowa, with a chance to win both of those games outright.  I expect the Wolverines spread offense to cause the Penn State defense problems.  In addition, Penn State’s schedule has been very weak to start the season with games against Eastern Illinois, Syracuse, Temple, Akron, and Minnesota.  However, despite facing those weak teams, they really haven’t had too many dominant wins.  Meanwhile, Michigan is battle tested with tough road games against Michigan State and Iowa, including an impressive home win over Notre Dame.  Look for Michigan to win this game outright at home.  
4 UNIT SELECTION

Boston College at Notre Dame 3:30pm EST
Selection:  BOSTON COLLEGE +7.5 (W)
Profile:  The weather for this game is expected to be in the mid 30’s with rain and wind.  Those kinds of weather conditions aren’t good for Notre Dame’s pass based offense, but they are good for Boston College’s run based offense.  The Eagles have a rushing attack capable of dominating the line of scrimmage, and the poor weather conditions are going to help them.  Other sharp bettors have jumped all over Boston College this week, driving the line down from 9.5 to 7.5.  Notre Dame is infamous for having letdown games under Charlie Weis over the last few years.  Last season they suffered an outright loss at home to lowly Syracuse as almost a three touchdown favorite.  They are in an ideal spot for a letdown in this game, as they are coming off of a devastating loss to USC.  Notre Dame put everything they had into that game and were just one play away from tying it and going to overtime.  Now they have to bounce back and play a Boston College team that they will likely not be up for.  The Eagles started the season with two wins against weak competition, and then proceeded to get dominated at Clemson.  Boston College also got blown out at Virginia Tech just two weeks ago.  However, that blowout is not a good indicator of this team’s true ability.  The Eagles offense has been getting better and better since they established David Shinskie as the starting quarterback.  He has done a good job taking care of the football with a 9/4 touchdown to interception ratio.  Look for Boston College to cover the number and have a chance to win outright.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Louisville at Cincinnati 3:30pm EST
Selection:  LOUISVILLE +18 (L)
Profile:  Cincinnati is in a situation that they haven’t done well in from a point spread perspective.  They failed to cover as big favorites against Miami (OH) and Fresno State this year.  Now they are favored by 18 points against a Louisville team that is capable of staying within this number.  The Cardinals showed a great deal of fight in their last game against Connecticut, which is what enabled them to keep the game closer than it should have been.  Louisville’s offense has been playing better lately, scoring 25 points in their last two contests.  Quarterback Adam Froman is getting more comfortable with the offense and is making fewer mistakes.  Cincinnati is coming off of their big road win against South Florida, so they won’t likely be up for Louisville.  In addition, starting quarterback Tony Pike is questionable for this game with an injured forearm, so even if the Bearcats get a lead in this game, it is unlikely that they will try to win by a bigger margin.  Look for Louisville to hang around in this game, staying within the point spread.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oregon at Washington 3:30pm EST
Selection:  WASHINGTON +10 (L)
Profile:  Oregon will be missing three members of their starting secondary today, which is a huge problem for them against Washington’s star quarterback Jake Locker.  This game is a huge potential look ahead spot for Oregon, as they have a home game against USC next week.  The Ducks are also dealing with their starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli being banged up. Washington has played hard in every game this year, and they have a fairly strong home field advantage this year.  The Huskies have also covered against the spread in three out of their last four home games this year.  Their best performances have come against the hardest teams on their schedule as well, with point spread covers as underdogs against Arizona, USC, and LSU.  I expect Locker to exploit a banged up Oregon secondary and have a chance to win this game outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Wake Forest at Navy 3:30pm EST
Selection:  WAKE FOREST -2 (L)
Profile:  Navy will be without their starting quarterback Ricky Dobbs for this game.  Usually the loss of a starting quarterback isn’t significant for them, but in this case it is.  Sophomore Kriss Proctor will be making the first start of his career today.  I look for him to struggle against a decent Wake Forest defense.  Navy’s offense has done so well this year because of Dobbs’ passing ability.  Usually they don’t have a quarterback who is able to throw, but Dobbs is an exception.  He has been able to stretch the field and keep defenses more honest against the run.  I expect the offense to struggle without him in the line-up.  Proctor will have a steep learning curve today because of his inexperience.  He hasn’t played much this year, and that will cost Navy today.  In addition, Wake Forest’s veteran quarterback Riley Skinner should be able to exploit a weak Navy secondary.  The Demon Deacons have played Navy three times in the last two years, so they are very familiar with the triple option offense.  Look for Wake Forest to get the win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Idaho at Nevada 4:05pm EST
Selection:  IDAHO +15.5 (L)
Profile:  Idaho continues to be disrespected by the betting public, who bet this line up to its current spread.  However, the Vandals are 7-0 against the spread this season, including several outright wins as underdogs.  Idaho matches up well against Nevada also.  The key to having success against Nevada is a good passing attack and a good rush defense.  The Wolfpack offense is almost solely based on running the ball.  The Vandals have only given up an average of 96 yards per game on the ground this season.  Meanwhile, Nevada’s pass defense has been horrendous this season, and their defense overall has given up 28 points or more to every opponent except Louisiana Tech.  However, that team is primarily a rush based offense, so they were unable to exploit Nevada’s weak pass defense.  Idaho has a good quarterback in Nathan Enderle, who has thrown for over 1700 yards this season, including several games of over 300 yards.  Last week Nevada failed to cover against Idaho because their defense was unable to stop Utah State.  In addition, the Vandals are trying to get to a bowl game, and they know that these games against beatable opponents are critical.  Idaho also has a great deal of momentum and confidence heading into this game.  I look for the Vandals to keep this game close throughout.
3 UNIT SELECTION

UCLA at Arizona 6:30pm EST
Selection:  OVER 51.5 POINTS (L)
Profile:  Arizona’s offense has shown it’s potency over the last few weeks.  Quarterback Nick Foles looks very comfortable running the offense.  The Wildcats have averaged 35 points and 415 yards of offense in their last 3 games.  UCLA’s defense has been lit up by the better offenses they have faced this season, and I expect the same result in this game.  Meanwhile, UCLA’s offense has quietly scored more points with the improvement of quarterback Kevin Prince.  Arizona’s normally stout defense has given up 106 points in their last 3 games.  I expect the Wildcats to continue to score throughout the game, while UCLA will be forced to air the ball out playing catch up.  Look for this game to soar over the total.  Other sharp bettors have agreed, as they have bet this total up from the opening number.  Weather won’t be a factor either.
4 UNIT SELECTION

TCU at BYU 7:30pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 51 POINTS (W)
Profile:  This game is going to be fiercely contested, as it features two of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference.  TCU’s trademark is a stifling defense and less than stellar offense.  The Horned Frogs are primarily a rushing team with a successful passing attack against weaker teams.  BYU has a very good defense and will be fired up to play in a featured primetime home team.  Their defense has been their strength this year, especially against the run.  I expect the Cougars to limit TCU’s rushing attack in a similar manner to what Air Force did against them a few games ago.  Meanwhile, I don’t expect BYU’s offense to do much against the speed of the Horned Frog defense.  TCU shut them down last year, only giving up 7 points.  These featured games are traditionally low scoring, as teams don’t want to make mistakes and defenses come out fired up.  This total is inflated, take the under.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Auburn at LSU 7:30pm EST
Selection:  AUBURN +7.5 (L)
Profile:  Road underdogs have been point spread monsters in the SEC this season, going 11-2 against the spread.  I feel that the road dog has some good advantages in this game, especially getting over a touchdown.  LSU’s offense has been absolutely anemic this season.  They have really struggled against every team on their schedule.  Their 30 point performance against Mississippi State is misleading because they got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game.  Auburn’s defense is not very good, but they are good enough to contain LSU somewhat.  Auburn is also a very dynamic spread offense, and they are capable of putting up points in bunches with quick scores.  If they get any kind of lead in this game, I expect the LSU offense to really struggle because of pressing.  LSU has been off for two weeks, and they are coming off of their game against Florida.  Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off two straight losses and will want this game badly as a result.  Look for Auburn to keep this game close and have a chance to win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

SMU at Houston 7:30pm EST
Selection:  SMU +16.5 (L)
Profile:  SMU is somewhat of an under-rated team this season.  June Jones has made an impact on a team that looked horrible last year.  The biggest improvement with the Mustangs has been on the defensive side.  SMU is only allowing an average of 393 yards per game this season, which is a vast improvement from a year ago.  In fact, their defense is giving up over 50 yards per game less than Houston’s defense.  The Cougars will likely not be as motivated for this game as SMU will, especially since June Jones is trying to make his team look as good as possible to in-state high school recruits.  The Mustangs offense is improved this season also, as they have scored 28 points or more in every game except against TCU, which has one of the best defenses in the country.  SMU also has much more of a balanced offense now, as they are finally able to have some success on the ground.  Last season SMU only lost to Houston by six points as well.  The Mustangs have a potent enough offense to keep this game within two touchdowns.  Houston has been able to play well against the best teams on their schedule, but they have not shown an ability to beat lesser teams by margin.  I expect SMU to take this game down to the wire and get the point spread cover.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Oregon State at USC 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OREGON STATE +21 (W)
Profile:  The betting public feels that USC is primed to blowout Oregon State in order to get revenge for last season’s loss in Corvallis.  However, the Trojans aren’t the same team from the last few seasons.  They don’t have an explosive offense, and they don’t have a defense loaded with 1st round NFL draft picks like last year.  USC is loaded with talent and top recruits, but they lack the experience of previous years.  Oregon State head coach Mike Riley knows the USC systems inside and out, which has allowed his team to play very well against the Trojans over the last few years.  The Beavers have confidence and a swagger when they play USC that no other team in the PAC 10 has shown.  USC only has one win by over 21 points this season against BCS conference teams, and that win was only a 27 point victory over a slumping and struggling Cal team.  Oregon State’s offense only has to score about 10-14 points to cover or tie this number because the Trojans offense has been sluggish this season, averaging only 27 points over their last 3 games.  In addition, USC is coming off of an emotional road win against Notre Dame, so they might not be fully up for this game early on.  The key in taking these big underdogs is finding teams that are capable of putting up points late to get back door covers.  The Beavers starting quarterback, Sean Canfield, has moved the ball down the field very well this season, and I expect his arm and Oregon State rushing attack to keep them in this game and inside the number.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 17

Iowa at Wisconsin 12:00pm EST
Selection:  WISCONSIN -2.5 (L)
Profile:  Iowa has played several close games this season, but this game will arguably be their toughest test so far.  The Hawkeyes are now the hunted in the Big 10, and this contest is their first road game that they are now expected to win.  There was no pressure on them to win their game at Penn State, which made it much easier for them to pull the upset.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin is not being respected by the betting public because of last week’s point spread loss at Ohio State.  However, the score is very misleading because Wisconsin moved the ball up and down the field and shutdown Ohio State’s offense.  However, the Buckeyes were able to get two interception returns for touchdowns and a kick return for a touchdown.  Wisconsin has a very balanced offense as well.  However, I expect one of the biggest factors in this game will be the mistakes that Iowa’s quarterback Richard Stanzi will make.  He has thrown 8 interceptions already this season, and he could have had several more picked off.  I expect the Wisconsin defense to cause him problems all day and to convert his mistakes into points.  Look for a motivated Badgers team to get the win and point spread cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Northwestern at Michigan State 12:00pm EST
Selection:  NORTHWESTERN +14 (W)
Profile:  Michigan State is being grossly overvalued here.  Michigan State is only 3-3 on the season with their only wins coming against Michigan, Illinois, and Montana State.  They also have losses to Wisconsin, Central Michigan, and Notre Dame.  Michigan was playing their first road game and over confident, yet the Spartans needed overtime to beat them.  In addition, they were only able to beat lowly Illinois by 10 points last week.  Michigan State also has a look ahead spot, as they face undefeated Iowa next week.  The Spartans are dealing with injuries to their starting quarterback and running back, but both are expected to play.  Their weakness on defense is the secondary, as they have given up 226 yards through the air this season.  Northwestern has a quality quarterback in Mike Kafka, who has led a good passing offense this season.  The Wildcats have averaged 225 yards per game through the air in their last three games.  Before last year’s game, Northwestern had covered for three straight years in this series as well.  Also home field advantage hasn’t been an edge, because the road team has covered the last four years.  Northwestern had a letdown game last week against Miami (OH), but I expect them to be ready for this game as a result of last week’s poor performance.  The Wildcats scored 24 points or more in every game before last week, and I expect their offense to keep this game close.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Wyoming at Air Force 2:00pm EST
Selection:  WYOMING +10.5 (W)
Profile:  Wyoming’s offense has been completely different since inserting freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels as the starter.  The Cowboys have averaged 32 points and 400 yards of offense per game since he has become the starter.  Meanwhile, Air Force’s offense has really struggled lately, scoring only 30 points in their last two games.  One of those games did come against TCU, but the Falcons offense has had problems all season, even against lowly San Diego State.  In addition, their starting quarterback Tim Jefferson is dealing with a serious ankle injury and is questionable for the game.  Air Force’s defense has played well this season, but Wyoming just has to score about 13 points to cover this high of a spread because of the Falcons struggling offense.  In addition, the Cowboys defense matches up well against the Falcons offense, as Wyoming is fairly stout against the run.  They have allowed less than 100 yards on average over their last three games.  Look for this game to be very close and don’t be surprised if Wyoming wins this game outright.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Nevada at Utah State 3:00pm EST
Selection:  NEVADA -8 (L)
Profile:  Nevada has quietly rebounded from a horrible start to the season.  There is good value on this game because of that poor start though.  The betting public is not respecting Nevada as a result.  They are coming off two straight blowout wins over UNLV and Louisiana Tech because of an offense that is finally clicking.  Because of the Wolfpack’s poor start to the season, they will not overlook this game.  In addition, they have Idaho next week, so Nevada has no reason to look ahead to next week.  Utah State has a bad match-up situation with Nevada’s offense.  The Aggies have been torched on the ground this season, giving up 190 yards per game.  They have also given up well over 200 yards to the rushing attacks of Utah and BYU.  I look for Nevada to run all over Utah State and give a dominating defensive effort as well.  Utah State doesn’t have a strong home field advantage either, which gives even more value to Nevada.  Look for the Wolfpack to get the double digit win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

USC at Notre Dame 3:30pm EST
Selection:  OVER 50 POINTS (W)
Profile:  Notre Dame’s defense has been porous against some lesser quality teams this season.  They have been torched by Washington, Michigan State, and Michigan this season.  These teams moved the ball at will against them with the Irish doing little to stop them.  In fact, Notre Dame has given up an average of 426 yards over their last three games, despite not playing a top 25 team.  I feel that this total is not being priced correctly because of USC’s struggles on offense this season.  However, they were without starting quarterback Matt Barkley against Washington, and he played his first road start at Ohio State to start the season.  The Trojans offense finally started clicking in their last game against California.  They were able to rack up 457 yards of total offense against the Golden Bears.  Meanwhile, Jimmy Clausen and the Notre Dame offense are vastly improved this season.  The Irish offense has easily put up over 30 points in every game except the Purdue contest; however Clausen didn’t play a bulk of the game.  In addition, if Notre Dame falls behind early, they will be forced to keep throwing and trying to score points.  The only reason selection is not a top play is because of USC’s under-rated defense.  However, I feel that Notre Dame will be able to put up enough points to send this game over the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Colorado State at TCU 4:00pm EST
Selection:  COLORADO STATE +22.5 (L)
Profile:  Colorado State is being severely disrespected here.  The Rams are a well coached team under Steve Fairchild, and they have shown the ability to play the best teams in the Mountain West Conference very tough.  They should have covered at BYU and played them basically even after giving up a few quick scores to start that game.  The Rams were able to play Utah very tough last week, losing a close game by a touchdown in a point spread cover.  TCU is in a situation that they struggle in from a point spread perspective, a big favorite.  The Horned Frogs have a dominant defense but a lackluster, grinding offense.  TCU is 1-3 against the spread this year as a double digit favorite, failing to cover in the last three games as a big favorite.  Meanwhile, this is a huge look ahead spot for TCU, as they have their toughest test of the season looming next week in BYU.  It is unlikely that they will want to run the score up in this game, even if they do start to get a lead.  The Horned Frogs will be happy enough to just win this game while not revealing too much before next week’s game that will likely decide the Mountain West Championship.  Look for Colorado State to keep this game close and cover the point spread.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech 6:00pm EST
Selection:  VIRGINIA TECH -3 (L)
Profile:  Georgia Tech’s offense has been very good this season, but the betting public is not paying attention to how much the defense has struggled.  The Yellow Jackets have been gashed defensively, giving up an average of almost 400 yards and 27 points over their last three games.  Luckily, they have been able to outscore their opponents, taken a big early lead, or faced poor offenses.  Everything has worked out for them in most of their games in order for them to get a 5-1 start to the season.  However, Virginia Tech has the athletes on defense to slow down Georgia Tech’s triple option offense.  Miami and North Carolina were both able to contain Georgia Tech’s offense with their athletic front seven, and Virginia Tech has a better defense than both of those teams.  In addition, the Hokies offense is playing their best football of the season, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor finally feels comfortable in the offense.  He has already thrown eight touchdowns on the season to only one interception.  Virginia Tech is also a tough, grinding team that is able to win conference games on the road.  Look for the Hokies to win this game by margin.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Navy at SMU 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 53.5 POINTS (W)
Profile:  Navy’s offense can put up points in bunches, and they put up 34 points against SMU last season.  Quarterback Ricky Dobbs is finally in rhythm with the offense.  SMU struggles stopping the run as well, and they have given up 30 points or more to Washington State, TCU, and UAB, hardly offensive juggernauts.  Meanwhile, SMU's offense is playing much better this season, as second year quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell is becoming very comfortable with June Jones offense.  Navy's weakness is stopping the pass, as their rush defense is very good and under-rated.  The travel spot is horrible for Navy, as they have to go back out to Texas after playing Rice on the road last week.  In addition, this is a bad look ahead spot for them, as they face Wake Forest at home next week, which is a big revenge game for them.  As a result, I expect their defense to be sluggish and allow SMU to throw all over them.  Look for this game to be back and forth with each team matching scores throughout.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 14

Boise State at Tulsa 8:00pm EST
Selection:  BOISE STATE -9.5 (L)
Profile:  Boise State is a well coached and disciplined team with a high scoring and balanced offense, as well as an under-rated defense.  Tulsa’s offense is not as explosive as in year’s past, and they are coming off of only a 27 point performance against lowly Rice.  Rice’s defense has given up more points to every other team on their schedule.  In addition, Tulsa has put up some decent offense numbers against some bad teams this season.  Their schedule has consisted of Rice, Sam Houston State, New Mexico, Tulane, and Oklahoma.  In fact, they got completely dominated against the Sooners, losing 45-0 in game that Oklahoma was playing with back-up quarterback Landry Jones playing his first full game against a Division I team.  Boise State has a history of covering on the road as an underdog under the guidance of head coach Chris Peterson.  In addition, the Broncos are coming off of a sloppy performance at home against UC Davis, which means they will be focused for this game.  Boise State got a dominant blowout win at Bowling Green earlier in the season as well.  Tulsa also doesn’t have a strong home field advantage either.  Look for the Broncos to get the road win and point spread cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 10

TODAY'S FREE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTION

Wisconsin at Ohio State 3:30pm EST
Selection:  WISCONSIN +16.5
Profile:  Wisconsin has started the season 5-0, but several experts do not have much respect for the Badgers based on their weak opening schedule.  However, they have two quality wins over Big 10 opponents Minnesota and Michigan State.  The Spartans are a decent team this season, with a win over Michigan State and a close defeat at Notre Dame.  I feel there are two main reasons why Wisconsin can stay within the number.  First, their starting quarterback, Scott Tolzien, is a senior that has been in the program for several years now.  He is not a typical first year starter and it has shown with the experience he has displayed.  Tolzien makes several references to managing the offense, playing within himself, and avoiding mistakes.  These are keys that are critical to quarterbacks playing well on the road.  Also, Wisconsin has a dominant running game, averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground with their bruising tailback John Clay.  While Ohio State does have a dominant rush defense, I expect Wisconsin to put enough points on the board to keep this game close.  In addition, Ohio State does not have an explosive offense, which makes it much harder to cover this of a spread against quality opponents.  Look for this game to be closer than expected.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 8

Nebraska at Missouri 9:00pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 54 POINTS (W)
Profile:  One of the reasons for Nebraska fans to be excited this season is their vastly improved defense.  They have given up an average of 284 yards and 7 points per game.  Head coach Bo Pelini is an excellent defensive coach and has done a great job in turning around a horrible defense.  However, the Cornhuskers schedule has been weak, with only Virginia Tech being the only BCS conference team that they have faced.  Their offense has been able to rack up big numbers against these weaker defenses, but they really struggled scoring against Virginia Tech.  Meanwhile, Missouri is off to a 4-0 start, but their offense hasn’t been as potent as last season.  The Tigers scored less than 40 points against teams with weak defenses such as Bowling Green, Nevada, and Illinois.  It’s especially notable that they looked sluggish against Nevada, as they have one of the worst pass defenses in the country.  Overall, oddsmakers are telling you something with this total being set about 14 points lower than last season.  Missouri’s offense isn’t anywhere near the same group as last season.  Nebraska’s offense isn’t explosive, as they prefer to play a physical ball control offense predicated on the running game.  That means that the clock will run more with the game being shorter.  In addition, both starting quarterbacks are inexperienced, which means they probably won’t play as well in this featured primetime weekday game.  Both defenses have also had about four extra days to prepare for the opposing offenses as well.  Look for this game to be lower scoring than expected.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 3

Arkansas State at Iowa 12:00pm EST
Selection:  ARKANSAS STATE +22 (W)
Profile:  Iowa is coming off of a huge win at Penn State on national television.  Now they have to play an Arkansas State team that the Hawkeyes will likely not be excited to face, especially before continuing Big Ten play next week.  Iowa now is being asked to win by over three touchdowns with an offense that isn’t known for its explosiveness.  They also showed that they have the potential for letdown performances with their very close win over Northern Iowa to start the season.  Arkansas State has played several games against quality BCS conference teams over the last few years, including this season against Nebraska.  They failed to cover the spread in that game by only nine points, but the Cornhuskers have been motivated to run up the score against weaker opponents.  Iowa has absolutely no reason to win this game by margin.  Their highest offensive production on the season came against Iowa State where they only scored 35 points.  Arkansas State just has to score around 10 points to cover this spread.  Look for this game to be closer than expected.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Northwestern at Purdue 12:00pm EST
Selection:  NORTHWESTERN +8 (W)
Profile:  Purdue comes into this game off of a very tough home loss to Notre Dame in primetime television.  The Boilermakers were one play away from getting a marquee win over a ranked opponent but couldn’t stop Jimmy Clausen late in the 4th quarter.  Now they are being asked to cover a spread of over a touchdown against an opponent that is relatively equal in talent.  This spread is too high considering that Northwestern is coming off of two poor performances with their losses against Syracuse and Minnesota.  The Wildcats have been a good point spread team on the road, going 3-1 ATS to end the season before their ATS loss at Syracuse.  I expect this game to go back and forth, as both teams have defenses that have struggled.  Even if Purdue gets a lead, Northwestern is more than capable of coming back and keeping the game within one score.   Look for this game to come down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Michigan at Michigan State 12:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 56 POINTS (L)
Profile:  This game features two surprisingly good offenses, and as a result this total has stayed relatively low.  Both teams have put up 30 points or more in every game this season, expect for Michigan State’s 27 point performance against Central Michigan.  In addition, both defenses have been struggling this year.  In fact, six of the seven lined games that these teams have had this season has gone over the total.  Michigan’s offense is explosive this season, as Rich Rodriguez finally has athletes capable of running his offense effectively.  Meanwhile, Michigan State has developed into a passing team under new quarterback Kirk Cousins.  Cousins has been very effective this season, averaging 320 yards per game through the air.  I expect this game to be back and forth, with each matching each other score for score.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Washington at Notre Dame 3:30pm EST
Selection:  WASHINGTON +13 (W)
Profile:  Notre Dame got a blowout road win over Washington last year, but the Huskies are a vastly better team than last year.  They have been very good against the pass this season, giving up only 183 yards through the air.  That quality pass defense is critical to this selection, as the Fighting Irish are mainly a passing team.  Overall, Washington is still not being priced right, as it will take oddsmakers several more games to adjust them properly after last season’s debacle.  However, they have a fully healthy Jake Locker back as quarterback, something that they didn’t have for most of last season.  In addition, new defensive coordinator Nick Holt has done a great job with a defense that returned almost every starter from last season.  Notre Dame is also dealing with a banged up Jimmy Clausen, who couldn’t even play for most of the game last week.  In addition, their star wide receiver, Michael Floyd, is done for the season.  His absence is significant to this offense.  Look for Washington to take this game down to the wire with a legitimate chance to win outright.
4 UNIT SELECTION

N.C. State at Wake Forest 3:30pm EST
Selection:  OVER 47.5 POINTS (W)
Profile:  This total is set relatively low; despite both teams have outstanding quarterbacks.  N.C. State’s Russell Wilson has a 12/0 touchdown to interception ratio and has been dominant this season.  Wake Forest’s Riley Skinner is an experienced quarterback and will be aided by playing at home.  He has led the Demon Deacons offense in scoring at least 21 points in every game this season.   N.C. State’s defense has been dominant this season, but those statistics were really boosted by playing Gardner Webb and Murray State.  They allowed Pittsburgh to move the ball all over them last week, as they gave up 31 points.  I feel that N.C. State’s deceiving defensive statistics are keeping this total low.  I expect this game to be back and forth with each matching each other score for score.  Take the over.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Georgia Tech at Mississippi State 7:30pm EST
Selection:  MISSISSIPPI STATE +6 (L)
Profile:  Mississippi State was embarrassed last season in a blowout road loss at Georgia Tech.  However, the scheduling spot was bad for the Bulldogs in that game, and they had no experience against the triple option offense.  In addition, that team’s offense was absolutely anemic last year.  Basically they had everything going against them.  However, Mississippi State’s offense is vastly better this season, and they almost got a home upset win over LSU last week.   In addition, their defense is playing well, and the team as a whole has out gained their last two opponents, LSU and Vanderbilt, by a combined 295 yards.  In fact, the Bulldogs outplayed LSU last week, as the Tigers needed a few big plays to pull out the win, even though Mississippi State still had a chance to get a late touchdown inside the five yard line.  Georgia Tech is also coming off of a very physical game against North Carolina.  Their starting quarterback Josh Nesbitt is not listed on the injury report, but he was severely banged up after that game and could barely finish it.  I expect a revived Mississippi State team to win this game outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M 7:30pm EST
Selection:  OVER 66.5 POINTS (L)
Profile:  Both of these offenses have been very prolific this season, while the defenses have been suspect.  Each team’s starting quarterback has combined for outstanding touchdown to interception ratios.  Bobby Petrino coached teams have always had explosive offenses and questionable defenses.  His starting quarterback, Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet, has one of the strongest arms in college football.  He is also able to effectively stretch the field vertically, which has produced big plays and kept defenses honest.  Meanwhile, Texas A&M has developed a very potent offense under quarterback Jerrod Johnson.  They have put up big numbers in every game this season.  However, one of the biggest reasons for this selection is the Razorback’s horrible defense.  They missed several tackles last week against Alabama, which allowed the Crimson Tide to get numerous big plays.  They simply cannot stop anyone on defenses.  Opposing offenses have been able to routinely drive the ball down the field effectively, only interrupted if the offense ends the drive quickly by getting a big play for a score.  Look for this game to fly over the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oklahoma at Miami 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OKLAHOMA -7.5 (L)
Profile:  Other sharp bettors are jumping all over Oklahoma and for good reason.  People are over looking the fact that this game is a huge mismatch of conferences.  The ACC is one of weakest BCS conferences, while the Big 12 is the 2nd strongest conference in the country.  The ACC was absolutely destroyed in non-conference games just a few weeks ago.  Miami also does not have a strong home field advantage in their new stadium, and Oklahoma is used to playing in much more hostile environments.  The Sooners will not have Sam Bradford back for this game, but back-up quarterback Landry Jones has done an excellent job in leading the offense.  He was a blue chip and highly touted recruit, so he’s more than capable in running an efficient offense.  However, the biggest reason for this selection is Oklahoma’s defense.  They have one of the best defenses in the country and are coming off two straight shutouts.  Those games were against weaker teams, but they did blank a Tulsa team that is typically known for an explosive offense.  These two teams also met just two years ago with Oklahoma absolutely destroying Miami.  The Hurricanes are better now, but they aren’t even close to being in the same class as the Sooners.  The oddsmakers are telling you that by making Miami such a big underdog, despite Oklahoma being without Sam Bradford.  Sharp bettors are telling you that by moving this line up from 6.5 and are already at 8 in some spots.  Look for Oklahoma to win this game in a blowout behind a dominant defense.
4 UNIT SELECTION

USC at California 8:00pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 47 POINTS (W)
Profile:  This game has several factors pointing to the under.  USC’s starting quarterback Matt Barkley is still not 100% due to his injured shoulder and is not able to make every throw.  Therefore the offense is not able to stretch the field vertically as well.  They are also dealing with the horrible injury to running back Stafon Johnson and will be without him as well.  Meanwhile, California is still without their star receiver Nyan Boateng.  His absence was noticeable last week in the blowout loss to California.  The Bears were unable to keep Oregon’s defense from keying on the run, as they absolutely shutdown star running back Jahvid Best.  USC has one of the best defenses in the country and will no doubt make sure Best doesn’t have success.  The last five match-ups between these teams have gone under the total, and this game should as well given the struggles and injuries that both offenses are dealing with right now.
4 UNIT SELECTION

New Mexico State at San Diego State 8:00pm EST
Selection:  NEW MEXICO STATE +18 (W)
Profile:  San Diego State has no business being this high of a favorite against any Division I team.  They are an absolute mess right now and last week’s final score in their game against Air Force does not properly represent how much they got outplayed.  San Diego State didn’t score any offensive points until very late in the 4th quarter during garbage time.  In addition, their rush defense is not very strong, and they have to face a rush based offense in New Mexico State.  The Aggies are a win last weekend against their in-state rival New Mexico, and I expect them to carry that added confidence into this game.  San Diego State simply does not have a good enough offense to cover this high of a number, and New Mexico State’s rushing offense will have enough success on the ground to cover this number and keep the game close.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Washington State at Oregon 9:15pm EST
Selection:  WASHINGTON STATE +35 (L)
Profile:  The scheduling spot here for Oregon is horrible, as they are coming off of their blowout home win against California.  Washington State played fairly well last week against USC, even though the Trojans were probably not bringing their best effort.  However, I don’t feel that the Ducks are a well disciplined team, evident by their meltdown at Boise State.  Oregon will have no motivation to play against lowly Washington State after a blowout win against their biggest rival.  However, the biggest reason for this selection is the Cougars new starting quarterback Jeff Tuel.  He was labeled the starter heading into that game and played very well given the limited ability of the offense around him.  He moved the ball effectively and was able to gain yards with his feet nothing else was available.  Washington State’s defense has also played much better than last year.  They have yet to allow a team score over 40 points despite playing USC, Stanford, Hawaii, and SMU, all teams capable of putting up big offensive numbers.  The Cougars could cover this game with just one touchdown because of the high spread.  Look for Washington State to cover this inflated spread.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 2

Pittsburgh at Louisville 8:00pm EST
Selection:  LOUISVILLE +7 (L)
Profile:  Louisville is a much better team than last season, despite starting the season 1-2.  However, two of those losses were at Utah and to their in-state rival Kentucky.  They covered the number against the Wildcats as well.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has started the season 3-1, but those wins were against weaker teams like Youngstown State, Buffalo, and Navy.  The Panthers weren’t able to win last week against the best team they had faced so far, as N.C. State got a comeback home win.  The Panthers defense was really gashed by the Wolfpack in that game as well, giving up 38 points.  Louisville will be motivated for this game, as it will be nationally televised on ESPN.  I also expect the Panthers to take the Cardinals lightly based on their supposed bad start to the season.  Louisville’s head coach Steve Kragthorpe is under intense pressure for his team to perform well this season, as people are already starting to call for his firing.  I expect him to have his team ready to play as a result, because he cannot afford for Louisville to play poorly in a nationally televised weekday home game.  Pittsburgh is also in a tough scheduling spot, as they have to go back on the road in a short week after playing a road game last Saturday.  Look for the Cardinals to cover the number or win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Utah State at BYU 9:00pm EST
Selection:  UTAH STATE +24 (W)
Profile:  Utah State is a much better team this season than in previous years, evident by their point spread covers at Utah and at Texas A&M.  Meanwhile, BYU seems to be getting too much respect based on their season opening win over Oklahoma.  However, this team still has questions all over the field.  That was apparent in their blowout home loss to Florida State.  The Cougars are coming off of a close point spread cover against Colorado State last week, but that result is deceiving.  The Rams played the Cougars very tough after a 1st quarter that had BYU get a few scores off broken plays.  BYU got all of the bounces go their way in that game, yet Colorado State still should have covered in that game.  BYU has no reason to get up for this contest, while this game will arguably be the biggest of the season for Utah State.  The Aggies are not being properly priced here, and I expect for this game to be much closer than expected.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Oct 1

Colorado at West Virginia 7:45pm EST
Selection:  WEST VIRGINIA -17 (L)
Profile:  Colorado is a very undisciplined team and has routinely lacked consistency and motivation throughout the season.  They laid a complete egg when traveling across the country to face Toledo this season.  The Buffaloes were coming off of an embarrassing home loss to Colorado State, and head coach Dan Hawkins faced immediate criticism and questions of a possible firing at the end of the season.  However, they allowed a very mediocre Toledo team to absolutely embarrass them at home in a primetime nationally televised game.  Colorado was finally able to get a win last week at home against Wyoming.  However, now they have to travel across the country once again and face a West Virginia team that wants revenge for last year’s game.  The Mountaineers suffered a tough loss to the Buffaloes last year in a primetime Thursday night game in Boulder, CO.  West Virginia’s offense is very potent this year, as they have added a pass threat to an already strong rushing attack.  They should have no problem moving the ball against a Buffaloes defense that has given up an average of 410 yards per game to Toledo, Colorado State, and Wyoming.  Meanwhile, Colorado’s offense has looked absolutely anemic, as they don’t have a good quarterback capable of making plays down the field.  West Virginia has given up 100 yards less this season than Colorado, while averaging 140 yards more on offense.  With the extra motivation and Colorado’s lackadaisical team, I expect West Virginia to win this game in a blowout.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 30

Hawaii at Louisiana Tech 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 56 POINTS (L)
Profile:  This total is relatively low for this series considering that just two years ago and before the total was set in the 70’s.  The biggest for the significant change is the theory that Hawaii doesn’t have an explosive offense anymore.  Last season the total was set at 48 when these two teams met, and that game easily went under.  However, the Warriors offense is vastly improved this season.  Quarterback Greg Alexander is much more comfortable in the offense, and he is one of the nation’s best statistical quarterbacks.  Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech will look to get their offense going after it sputtered in losses to Auburn and Navy.  They should have no problem moving the ball in this game, as the Warriors defense, specifically their pass defense, has struggled this season.  They allowed UNLV and Washington State to move the ball rather easily against them, even though most of the Cougars offensive success came after the game was a blowout.  Hawaii also has a few injuries on defense which will make things easier for Louisiana Tech to move the ball.  I expect this game to be back and forth throughout, with each team matching the other score for score.  Even if either team falls behind a significant margin, they both have an offense capable of putting points on the board in bunches.  Look for this game to fly over the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 26

North Carolina at Georgia Tech 12:00pm EST
Selection:  GEORGIA TECH -2.5 (W)
Profile:  Georgia Tech has gone from being everyone’s “up and coming team” to in everyone’s doghouse after their blowout loss at Miami.  However, after watching Paul Johnson for several years at Navy, I truly feel that he is one of the best coaches in college football.  He is a great tactician and motivator, and he looked truly embarrassed after the televised road loss at Miami last week.  I expect for him to have his team really prepared for this game, especially with two extra days to prepare.  This game is also a big revenge factor for the Yellow Jackets, as they were blown out 28-7 last year at North Carolina.  However, a closer look at that game shows another story.  Georgia Tech actually moved the ball very well on the ground, and they even out gained the Tar Heels by over 100 yards!  North Carolina’s offense has looked very anemic this year, as it appears that they really miss their play maker wide receivers from a year ago.  Even though I’m not high on this Georgia Tech defense this season, I still think that they will be motivated enough to shut down the North Carolina offense.  The Yellow Jackets have a good home field advantage as well, and their fans will be hyped for this home game as well.  Look for Georgia Tech to get the home win as a small favorite.  Be sure to get this number under a field goal as well. 
3 UNIT SELECTION

LSU at Mississippi State 12:20pm EST
Selection:  MISSISSIPPI STATE +13 (W)
Profile:  Significant home underdogs in SEC games have been a great point spread bet over the last few seasons.  There is a great deal of parity in this league, as every team has athletes capable of beating any other in the league.  However, there are a few key facts in this game that will enable Mississippi State to keep this game close.  The Bulldogs new spread offense must be able to move the ball on the ground, as head coach Dan Mullen has installed his Urban Meyer style offense.  While LSU has played well this season, they have given up yards on the ground.  Washington moved the ball fairly well against LSU in week one also.  Meanwhile, the Tigers don’t have an explosive offense either, which makes covering a double digit spread on the road even tougher.  This game also has an early start, so I could easily see LSU come out very sluggish against a charged up LSU team.  Dan Mullen’s spread offense gave LSU’s defense trouble last year at Florida, as they simply had no answer to it.  I look for this game to be very close and come down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

San Diego State at Air Force 2:00pm EST
Selection:  AIR FORCE -16.5 (L)
Profile:  San Diego State is a complete mess right now.  They were blown out last week by lowly Idaho on the road, as well as being dominated by UCLA in week one.  To make matters worse, Air Force has dominated San Diego State the past two years, both at home and on the road.  In addition, the Falcons will have their starting quarterback Tim Jefferson for this game, after he left the last game due to injury.  However, even if he is too banged up to play, his back-up is more than capable to move the offense down the field.  This game might be a look ahead spot for Air Force, as they have their arch rival Navy on the schedule next.  However, they have gone 2-1 against the spread over the last few seasons in the games preceding the Navy game.  In addition, I don’t expect the Aztecs to put up much of a fight either.  Both UCLA and Idaho ran very well against San Diego State, averaging about 150 yards per game and 3.5 yards per rush.  Look for Air Force to put up around 40 points and easily cover this spread.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Central Florida at East Carolina 3:30pm EST
Selection:  CENTRAL FLORIDA +10.5 (W)
Profile:  This game has gone under the radar because it doesn’t feature a top tier team.  In addition, these two teams are being priced according to last year’s results.  East Carolina was a public darling after getting upset wins over West Virginia and Virginia Tech.  However, the luster isn’t there this year, as they already have straight up and against the spread losses to West Virginia and North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are not an impressive team either, so that ATS loss is fairly significant.  The Pirates also barely beat Appalachian State at home.  Meanwhile, Central Florida has played well to start the season with an ATS and straight up win against Buffalo last week, as well as a close loss at a very good Southern Mississippi team.  This game has been fairly tightly contested over the last four years, with the underdog covering in three of those games.  The Pirates don’t have an explosive offense which makes it much more difficult to cover a large point spread against a quality conference opponent.  Central Florida is a better team this year, and I expect them to challenge East Carolina for the outright win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Miami at Virginia Tech 3:30pm EST
Selection:  VIRGINIA TECH +3 (W)
Profile:  How many times have we seen a supposed up-and-coming team in college football be praised by the media after a few games only fall flat on their face?  Miami’s team is loaded with talented but inexperienced players.  Starting quarterback Jacory Harris has played well, but this game will be his toughest test of the season so far.  He did play well at Florida State, but Virginia Tech has a very strong home field advantage.  In addition, I feel that Harris is too confident heading into this game, as there is even talk of him being a possible Heisman Trophy candidate.  Virginia Tech showed a great deal of toughness in their comeback home win over Nebraska last week, and I expect them to have a chip on their shoulder in this game because of all the talk about Miami.  The line adjustment is way too much in this game, as Miami has become the new public darling.  I expect this game to be lower scoring, so getting three points is important.  I look for Virginia Tech’s defense to bring pressure the entire game, which will cause Harris to make some poor decisions.  Look for the Hokies to get the outright home win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Arkansas at Alabama 3:30pm EST
Selection:  ARKANSAS +17.5 (L)
Profile:  I feel that Arkansas will be an excellent point spread team this season as a large underdog.  They showed last week that they probably are going to be a pass as a small favorite this year based on their defense.  The Razorbacks gave up numerous big plays last week against Georgia.  Meanwhile, Alabama simply isn’t an explosive team offensively.  They prefer to pound the ball and play ball control offense.  Last season and this season they have only covered about half of their games as a double digit favorite.  They thrived when they played teams going in the tank and teams that can’t match up physically against them, such as Sun Belt Conference teams.  Arkansas has a potent enough offense and a very good quarterback that could even get a late 2nd half cover if they significantly fall behind.  Look for Arkansas to keep this game close and cover the large point spread.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Idaho at Northern Illinois 3:30pm EST
Selection:  IDAHO +16 (W)
Profile:  Northern Illinois is coming off of huge outright win at Purdue last week, now they are coming home to play lowly Idaho as a big double digit favorite.  They also have a tough conference game against Western Michigan next week.  In addition, the Huskies had a close loss at Wisconsin to open the year, so it is unlikely that they will have any motivation for this game.  Idaho’s defense matches up well against Northern Illinois’ rush based offense.  They Vandals are allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground, and the held Washington to only 121 yards on the ground.  They are going to be a great point spread team this season because the betting public does not realize they are a team with experience that has shown improvement.  The Huskies are a quality team, but covering this large of a spread is a challenge for their offense, especially against a decent rush defense.  In addition, Idaho does have a decent offense, which will make it easier for them to get a back door cover if they fall behind by more than the spread in the 2nd half.  Look for the Vandals to play the Huskies very tough and keep this game within single digits.
2 UNIT SELECTION

California at Oregon 3:30pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 55.5 POINTS (W)
Profile:  This game has been one of the biggest rivalries in college football over the last few years.  As a result, each team brings their best effort into this game and is one thing that must be considered.  These emotional rivalry games have a way of leveling the playing field sometimes, even though one team may come into the game with a seemingly significant advantage.  With these types of games, I like to look at the series history because the quality of athletes usually stays the same over the years at schools, unless a significant change is brought on, good or bad, by a new coach.  First thing I noticed is that the home team has won outright in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.  However, Cal has won four out of the last five meetings between these two teams, including a win at Oregon in 2007.  Also, the Ducks haven’t had a convincing win over the Bears since 2001, as their 2005 win came in overtime.  Another trend I noticed is that this meeting has gone under the total in six of the last eight meetings, including last year’s 26-16 win by the Bears.  Next, I looked at the current state of each team heading into this game.  California has looked good so far this season, but they really haven’t been tested.  Last week’s win at Minnesota was somewhat of a quality win, but they allowed the Golden Gophers to keep the game tied until the 4th quarter.  The Bears did suffer a bad injury in that game, as their star receiver, Nyan Boateng, will be out for several weeks with a foot injury.  He really opened the offense and was a favorite target of Kevin Riley.  Meanwhile, Oregon comes in having played much stiffer competition, with a road game at Boise State and home games against Purdue and Utah.  However, the Ducks offense looked absolutely anemic against a Boise State defense that didn’t look particularly impressive last week at Fresno State.  They will also severely miss star running game LeGarrette Blount for the rest of the season.  Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has not looked either, completing only 45% of his passes with two interceptions.  The close home win by Oregon over Purdue is much more telling to me than the loss at Boise State.  The Ducks should have dominated the Boilermakers in that game, as they had all of the motivation of rebounding from the Boise State game, as well as playing their first home game of the season.  However, Purdue, not a particularly good team, kept the game close down to the wire.  That outcome is very telling about Oregon.  Overall I would love to have a reason to take Oregon with the points.  However, they have not looked good so far this season, and they have a first year head coach.  The Ducks must be able to run the ball in order have success on offense, but California has a very good rush defense, yielding only 62 yards per game on the ground.  I expect Oregon’s defense to play very motivated as well though, and the injury to Boateng will severely impact the Cal offense.  I feel that this total is inflated based on the misconception that both teams have explosive offenses.  However, I expect this game to be fiercely contested and lower scoring than people think.  My recommendation is to take a two unit play on the under.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Western Kentucky at Navy 3:30pm EST
Selection:  1ST HALF NAVY -18 (L)
Profile:  I completely ignored this game because of the large spread, however I read an article yesterday about how Navy’s coach said this game is the biggest of the year for them.  They are coming off of two losses in three games against Ohio State and Pittsburgh, and coach Ken Niumatalolo is concerned over the offense.  He said Ricky Dobbs is not running the offense very well and wants to correct that today.  Dobbs should have no problem tearing apart a Western Kentucky defense that has never faced the triple option and is giving up 275 yards on the ground.  I like the 1st half selection here today because Navy’s intensity will be high for the first two quarters, so I expect their offense to put up several touchdowns in the 1st half.  Meanwhile, Western Kentucky has only put up 27 points through 3 games this year.  I expect the Navy defense to be fired up and for the Midshipmen to be leading by 20 or more points at halftime.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Florida at Kentucky 6:00pm EST
Selection:  KENTUCKY +21.5 (L)
Profile:  Florida enters into this game in a very tough spot.  They are coming off of the over-hyped Tennessee game where their offense didn’t look particularly impressive.  In addition, head coach Urban Meyer is still dwelling in the media this week on the closer than expected win.  He clearly was not entirely focused on Kentucky this week.  Also, several Gator players are dealing with flu symptoms, and the medical staff has gone to great lengths to seclude these players from the rest of the team.  Meanwhile, Kentucky is improved from last year’s team that got absolutely embarrassed in The Swamp.  This time the Gators have to travel to Kentucky in a game that is unlikely to get them excited.  The Wildcats offense is capable of putting up enough points to get a point spread cover here, especially with the added motivation of making up for last year’s embarrassing loss.  Look for Kentucky to keep this game much closer than expected.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Colorado State at BYU 6:00pm EST
Selection:  COLORADO STATE +17 (L)
Profile:  BYU was over-hyped after their win against an Oklahoma team with a very inexperienced offensive line and an injured Sam Bradford.  The talk of BYU crashing the BCS this season came to a screeching halt after Florida State embarrassed them last week.  That game was a huge deflator for a team that thought they had serious hopes of making it to a BCS bowl.  How many times have we seen these Cinderella teams lose a regular season game only to come out very flat the next week, especially against a less than exciting team?  Colorado State is very well coached and is an up-and-coming team coach Steve Fairchild.  He has this team well prepared every week and was impressive in their wins over Nevada and Colorado this season.  They have also played BYU tough in recent years.  The Cougars are not a dominant enough team to cover this spread, even without being deflated by last week’s result.  Look for Colorado State to have a chance to win this game outright, as they will really hammer BYU physically.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Boise State at Bowling Green 7:00pm EST
Selection:  BOWLING GREEN +17 (L)
Profile:  Bowling Green has an under-rated offense, and I feel that they aren’t being priced correctly based on last week’s loss to Marshall.  Boise State is obviously priced high here based on this season’s success, as well as the last few years.  However, the Falcons are a good MAC team won outright against Troy as an underdog and played Missouri tough on the road.  I feel that they had a letdown performance last week in their loss to Marshall.  They have an excellent passing offense, which should do well against the Boise secondary.  Boise State hasn’t been this high of a favorite when traveling this far across country.  They are coming off of a big road win at Fresno State last week as well.  Bowling Green played the Broncos tough last year on the road, losing by only 13 points on the blue turf.  Boise State has no reason to run up the score on Bowling Green, and MAC teams have traditionally played very well in these non-conference night home games.  Look for Bowling Green to cover this high number with their explosive passing offense. 
3 UNIT SELECTION

Arizona at Oregon State 7:45pm EST
Selection:  OREGON STATE -2.5 (L)
Profile:  Arizona’s quarterback situation is a complete mess right now, which makes it very hard to go on the road and win outright.  It was clear last week that their offense couldn’t even put together an effective drive against Iowa throughout the game.  Now they have to go back out on the road and play at an Oregon State team which is coming off a loss.  Oregon State has the much better offense with Jacquizz Rodgers as an explosive running back.  While the Beavers Sean Canfield isn’t a quality quarterback, he is effective enough to lead the offense.  Oregon State has dominated this series as well, covering in nine of the last ten years.  In addition, the Beavers won outright at Arizona last year despite the Wildcats having their best team in years.  Arizona’s offense also seems to be feeling the effects of not having their All-American tight end Rob Gronkowski.  His loss is significant for the Wildcats considering that they are breaking in a new quarterback this season.  Look for Oregon State’s better offense, motivation, and home field advantage to be the differences in this game.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 24

Mississippi at South Carolina 7:30pm EST
Selection:  SOUTH CAROLINA +4 (W)
Profile:  I feel that Mississippi is one of the most over-rated teams coming into this season.  They do have some talented players, especially at the quarterback position, but they are being ranked as a top five program in the country.  The Rebels struggled for most of the game against Memphis a few weeks ago, and their only other game was against a weak opponent last week.  South Carolina appears to be better than in previous years as well, as quarterback Stephen Garcia is doing a better job at running the offense than the previous Gamecock quarterbacks.  In addition, South Carolina has been tested already this season with games against N.C. State and Georgia.  They also played a better Sun Belt Conference team in Florida Atlantic.  Meanwhile, Mississippi’s star defensive end, Greg Hardy is banged up for this game and will his snaps very limited.  He’s presence makes a huge difference for the Rebels defense and having his snaps limited is a huge problem for them.  South Carolina has done very well at home as an underdog over the last few years.  They seem to get up for these big home games, while having a letdowns against the weaker SEC teams.  I look for them to have a huge homefield advantage tonight as well.  South Carolina doesn’t even have to win to cover this point spread either.  Look for the Gamecocks to get the point spread cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 19

California at Minnesota 12:00pm EST
Selection:  MINNESOTA +14 (T)
Profile:  This game reminds me of last season when California traveled across the country to play Maryland.  They weren’t motivated for that early start game and suffered an outright loss as a double digit favorite.  This Saturday they have to play another early start game against an opponent that they will likely not be motivated to play.  The Bears have a huge Pac-10 game looming next week at Oregon, so there isn’t motivation for the Cal coaching staff to do more than just win the game.  Minnesota, while not a dominant team, is playing in their new stadium for only the second time, so they will be up for this game.  The Bears players will be forced to play this game at 9am PST, so I look for them to be very sluggish and start slow.  Look for Minnesota to keep this game close and take it down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Louisville at Kentucky 12:00pm EST
Selection:  KENTUCKY -14 (L)
Profile:  This rivalry is very intense for both teams.  Even though Kentucky starts SEC play next week with Florida, this game is very important to the Wildcats.  Head coach Rich Brooks teams have done very well during his career in these rivalry games, even when he was the coach at other schools.  Louisville seems poised to be a dumpster fire this year, as they lost half of their team from last year.  That team wasn’t very good, and it doesn’t look like this team is going to be better.  Kentucky’s defense should be strong once again, but their offense should be able to move the ball much better than they did last year.  They return eight starters on that side of the ball, and they should have a good balance between the run and pass.  The Wildcats showed their dominance over the Cardinals last season in a 27-2 blowout win.  There is simply too much of a difference in size, athleticism, and talent between these teams for Louisville to keep this game close.  In addition, it is being played at Kentucky’s stadium, which means the Wildcats should get a huge emotional boost through the entire game.  Look for Kentucky to win this game in a double digit blowout. 
3 UNIT SELECTION

Eastern Michigan at Michigan 12:00pm EST
Selection:  EASTERN MICHIGAN +24.5 (L)
Profile:  Michigan has the difficult task of facing a supposedly weak Eastern Michigan team after a huge win over Notre Dame, as well as facing Big 10 play starting next week.  The Eagles should consistently improve throughout the season under new head coach Ron English.  Their performance was much better last week against Northwestern, as they should tremendous resiliency in the 2nd half.  Eastern Michigan’s offense has a tremendous deal of experience, and they are getting a better grasp of the new pro-style offense.  English also has the defense playing better.  Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez didn’t want to run the score up in their first game of the year against Western Michigan, so the Eagles could still get a back door cover even if Michigan jumps out to a big lead.  Look for Eastern Michigan to cover this large number.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Michigan State at Notre Dame 3:30pm EST
Selection:  NOTRE DAME -10 (L)
Profile:  Notre Dame lost last week to Michigan, despite outplaying the Wolverines.  Charlie Weis absolutely cannot afford to have his team play poorly in this game.  The Fighting Irish offense is very explosive this season, and they should have put up more points last week.  Meanwhile, Michigan State’s defense has not looked good this season, and that side of the ball is the main reason why they lost to Central Michigan last week.  The Spartans also struggled to move the ball against a Chippewas defense that they should have had a dominant advantage against.  In addition, Michigan State has dominated this series recently, a fact that Charlie Weis and his team have heard all week.  They will be very focused in this game to avenge previous losses to the Spartans, as well as to take out their aggression from last week’s tough loss.  Look for the Fighting Irish offense to have a huge game and get a blowout win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

USC at Washington 3:30pm EST
Selection:  WASHINGTON +20 (W)
Profile:  This play is just as much about Washington being an improved team this season as it is based on USC having a letdown game.  I feel that I would not go against USC this week if they were playing a truly weak team from a lesser conference.  The media has been talking all week about how this could be a letdown game because of the injury to Barkley and the emotional comeback road win from last week.  However, Washington returns several starters from last season, including their star quarterback Jake Locker.  Obviously new head coach Steve Sarkisian will be motivated for a strong showing against his former team.  Huskies defensive coordinator Nick Holt, who was the coordinator last year for USC, will have his defense ready.  Aaron Corp hasn’t had many snaps either this season, so the Trojans will have to deal with an inexperienced quarterback as well playing in a hostile environment.  USC’s head coach Pete Carroll is good friends with Sarkisian and Holt as well, so it is unlikely that he will run up the score if the opportunity arises.  Look for this game to be close throughout.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Arizona at Iowa 3:35pm EST
Selection:  ARIZONA +4 (L)
Profile:  Arizona’s head coach Mike Stoops is a former Iowa football player and returns to his old stomping grounds this weekend.  Despite both head coaches publicly stating that they aren’t happy with the scheduling of this game before conference play, it is likely that Stoops is taking it more serious than Kirk Ferentz.  In addition, Arizona returns several starters from last year’s team.  They are without their former star quarterback Willie Tuitama, but they still have a strong ground game, as well as a solid defense.  Iowa’s offense still isn’t very good, and they struggle to put points on the board against quality opponents.  Arizona was a good road team last year, and I look for them to play well in this game.  They have a significant advantage in athletes compared to Iowa, which should be the difference in this game.  The Hawkeyes offense simply doesn’t have enough fire power to beat a good BCS conference team by margin.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Connecticut at Baylor 5:00pm EST
Selection:  BAYLOR -10.5 (L)
Profile:  Baylor outplayed Connecticut last season, despite losing a close contest in Storrs.  The Bears played that game early in the season when they were still developing their younger players, including speedster quarterback Robert Griffin.  There was a clear advantage in athleticism for Baylor in that game, despite Connecticut having several NFL caliber players.  Baylor showed just how good of a team they are this season by their dominant win at Wake Forest to start off the season.  In addition, the Bears have had two weeks to prepare for this game, while the Huskies suffered a demoralizing home loss to North Carolina last week.  Their starting quarterback also got injured, which means that back-up Cody Endres will get the start.  Connecticut’s passing game is absolutely horrible, so I expect them to really struggle to move the ball.  Look for this game to get ugly in a hurry, as Baylor has the better offense, a revenge factor, and more time to prepare against a much weaker team.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Cincinnati at Oregon State 6:45pm EST
Selection:  CINCINNATI -1 (W)
Profile:  Cincinnati’s offense proved just how explosive they can be in their dominant road win at Rutgers.  The Bearcats return almost every starter back on offense this season.  That offense improved throughout last season, and quarterback Tony Pike is in full control of the passing game.  The Bearcats also have NFL caliber players throughout that group as well.  It looked as though Cincinnati’s weakness this year would be the defense, but head coach Brian Kelly is one of the most under-rated coaches in college football.  He puts his defense in great situations to succeed, and he has recruited great talent on that side of the ball.  Oregon State’s offense isn’t very good, as they struggled to move the ball in both games this season, despite playing weaker competition.  The Beavers must be able to the run the ball in order to score points.  However, Cincinnati has traditionally had a very good rush defense.  Oregon State begins conference play next week at home against Arizona, so I don’t look for them to be motivated at all to play this game.  Look for an upstart Cincinnati team to come in and throttle Oregon State.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Northwestern at Syracuse 7:00pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 47 POINTS (L)
Profile:  Syracuse’s defense has played very well this season.  They shutdown Minnesota after the first quarter in their first game, and they limited Penn State’s first team offense to only 28 points last week.  What is even more staggering is the way they dominated Penn State’s rushing offense.  Meanwhile, Northwestern’s defense has improved over the last few seasons and was supposed to be a strong point this season.  They shut down Eastern Michigan in the 1st half last week but let them come back in the 2nd half.  However, that poor effort has Pat Fitzgerald very upset with his defense, and he said they are going to focus on that side of the ball in this game.  Syracuse’s offense has just been horrible this season, as they have only scored 7 points in their last 6 quarters.  They simply do not have the ability to stretch the field with their passing game, which allows teams to key on the run.  Syracuse’s defense played very motivated in their first home game, and I expect another strong effort from that unit in this contest.  Look for a low scoring game.
3 UNIT SELECTION

West Virginia at Auburn 7:45pm EST
Selection:  AUBURN -7 (W)
Profile:  I am not high on this West Virginia team this year; as they lost several of their best players from a season ago, including the heart and soul of the team, quarterback Pat White.  I feel that Bill Stewart was the worst hire in college football last year, and he will start to show it this year in this game.  This game sets up perfectly for a big play on Auburn, as West Virginia has played two easy home games.  They haven’t been tested yet this season as a result.  Auburn’s offense has really exploded under new head coach Gene Chizik, especially their running game.  The Tigers have better athletes than the Mountaineers, and I expect their offense to put up bunches of points because of a successful running attack.  This game is also a revenge situation for Auburn, as they got embarrassed at West Virginia last year in a game that they didn’t get up for.  Look for the Tigers to get a blowout home win.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Georgia at Arkansas 7:45pm EST
Selection:  ARKANSAS -2.5 (L)
Profile:  Georgia is coming off of a tough two game stretch, playing at Oklahoma State and home to South Carolina in two consecutive weeks.  Now they have to go back out on the road and play against an up-start Arkansas team.  The Razorbacks have almost every starter back from last year’s team that showed improvement throughout the season.  Head coach Bobby Petrino also has a quarterback capable of running his style of offense.  Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet seems fully ready to lead the Razorbacks offense, as he has plenty of playmakers and offensive line to help him out.  Georgia is also banged up and having to play in what should be a very hostile environment.  Look for Arkansas to get the win and make a statement in this nationally televised home game.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Texas Tech at Texas 8:00pm EST
Selection:  TEXAS -17.5 (L)
Profile:  Texas has seen clips of that infamous game at Texas Tech played over and over again over the past year.  Now they have a chance to avenge that devastating loss that kept them out of the BCS Championship Game last year.  Texas was leading that game late, as well as controlling it early on, before that well publicized touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree.  The Longhorns biggest problem last year was their pass defense, so facing Texas Tech’s pass happy offense on the road was a huge challenge.  In addition, that game was the Red Raiders Super Bowl for them last season, as they got a rare home nationally televised game against their in-state rival.  However, this season the game is in Texas and is once again in primetime.  Graham Harrell, the starting quarterback for Texas Tech last year, and Crabtree are gone, and the Red Raiders still have some questions on defense.  Texas Tech still got dominated last season by some of the best teams on their schedule, despite having one of their best offenses ever.  Oklahoma, Missouri, and Mississippi all easily handled the Red Raiders, despite all of the hype surrounding them.  In addition, the Longhorns defense is much better this season, especially their secondary, as they have more overall experience on that side of the ball.  Look for Texas to make up for last year’s embarrassing loss and absolutely destroy Texas Tech at home.
5 UNIT SELECTION
***BUY THE EXTRA HALF POINT TO GET THE LINE AT -17***

San Jose State at Stanford 9:00pm EST
Selection:  STANFORD -17 (W)
Profile:  San Jose State is playing their third straight BCS conference team this weekend.  In addition, their previous two games were against USC and Utah, two of the better teams in the country.  They had a tough loss last week against Utah, in a game that they were in until the end.  However, I expect them to run out of gas this week, as they face an angry Stanford team.  The Cardinal blew a big lead last week at Wake Forest.  Jim Harbaugh’s defense was porous in the 2nd half, prompting him to question the toughness of his team.  Stanford will be focused for this game as a result, which isn’t good news for a tired San Jose State team.  The Cardinal have absolutely dominated this series over the last few years from a straight up and point spread perspective.  The Spartans rush defense has been horrible the last few weeks, and I expect Stanford to fully exploit that problem on Saturday enroute to a blowout.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 17

Georgia Tech at Miami 8:00pm EST
Selection:  MIAMI -5.5 (W)
Profile:  Underdogs in ACC games around this price range have been strong against the spread selections over the last year, but I feel that this game is not going to follow that trend.  Miami was blown out by Georgia Tech last season, but Miami was in a tough situational spot in that game.  In addition, the Yellow Jackets were very focused for their nationally televised primetime home game, and they took advantage of the inexperienced Miami defense.  The Hurricanes and head coach Randy Shannon didn’t have much experience against Paul Johnson’s triple option offense heading into that game, and they were on a short week of practice.  However, they have had extended time to prepare for this game and do not want a repeat performance of last year’s blowout.  Miami also has a brutal schedule after this game, so they cannot afford to lose this contest.  Georgia Tech’s win last week against Clemson is somewhat misleading because they used several gadget plays and turnovers to get a win over them.  However, the Tigers moved the ball rather easily against them from the 2nd quarter on, which almost resulted in a huge come back win.  Georgia Tech’s problem this year is their inexperienced defense, evident by Clemson’s offensive success with a new quarterback last week.  Miami’s starting quarterback Jacory Harris looked fully comfortable against Florida State with the new offense that the Hurricanes installed, especially since that game was on the road.  I look for Miami to come out and get a dominant home win in primetime.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 12

North Carolina at Connecticut 12:00pm EST
Selection:  NORTH CAROLINA -4 (L)
Profile:  This game features two teams that both want to pound the football on the ground.  North Carolina absolutely dominated Connecticut last season, despite the Huskies having one of the best rushing attacks in the country.  The Huskies offense only put up 23 points against Ohio, a very weak MAC team, last week.  Quarterback Zach Frazer struggled as well, throwing for only 127 yards with 3 interceptions.  The Tar Heels having a much better offensive and defensive lines and should control the line of scrimmage throughout.  North Carolina also has an experienced quarterback in T.J. Yates, who won’t get rattled from playing on the road.  The Tar Heels won in a blowout against the Huskies last season, and I expect them to have a repeat performance.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Eastern Michigan at Northwestern 12:00pm EST
Selection:  NORTHWESTERN -20 (L)
Profile:  Northwestern did have a blowout win over I-AA Towson in the first game of the season, but they played poorly in the second half.  That poor performance made head coach Pat Fitzgerald very upset, and he said that his team will not have a similar letdown this week.  He wants his team to come out strong and really dominate the game throughout.  Not good news for an Eastern Michigan team that got hammered by Army.  Army completely controlled that game, as both Eastern Michigan’s offense and defense struggled.  New head coach Ron English installed a pro-style offense, and his players have expressed their frustration with new system.  I expect the Wildcats to really hammer the Eagles, as they will bring a constant effort until the end.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Notre Dame at Michigan 3:30pm EST
Selection:  OVER 47.5 POINTS (W)
Profile:  One of the reasons why this total is set so low is because both defenses played well against their opponents last week.  However, Notre Dame’s offense did put up 35 points against Michigan last year, and their offense looks much better this season.  Meanwhile, the Wolverines finally have quarterbacks and playmakers that can effectively run Rich Rodriguez’s offense.  Denard Robinson and Tate Forcier will make plays in this game and put points on the board.  Playing at home will also help the young quarterbacks.  Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen is used to playing on the road, so having the game at Michigan won’t affect the Irish offense.  I look for Michigan to have to play catch up the whole game with these teams matching each other score for score throughout the contest.
4 UNIT SELECTION

SMU at UAB 4:00pm EST
Selection:  ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM -12 (L)
Profile:  UAB proved last week that they are going to be a very good team this season.  However, the Blazers are still slightly flying under the radar.  Their offense is going to be very tough for opposing Conference USA defenses to stop.  Last week they dominated Rice from start to finish, and I expect them to do the same against SMU.  The Mustangs are still mostly the same team that has been one of the worst programs in Division I over the last few years, despite June Jones in his second year as head coach.  His spread offense is still a work in progress, and they didn’t have a strong showing last week.  The Mustangs defense is absolutely porous, so it will not be hard for UAB to get out to an early lead and break away from SMU in the 2nd half.  The Blazers proved last week that they are a team to back while there’s still value on them.  Look for UAB to get the home blowout and point spread cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

UCLA at Tennessee 4:00pm EST
Selection:  TENNESSEE -10 (L)
Profile:  Tennessee has Florida next week, so one would think that the Volunteers are in a good fade situation here.  However, Lane Kiffin knows that he cannot afford to let his team have a poor performance in front of their home fans, especially in a revenge game.  UCLA beat Tennessee last year at home in the opening game of the season, however the Volunteers had a clear edge in athleticism.  Neither starting quarterback puts fear in opposing secondaries, but Lane Kiffin’s offense allows Jonathan Crompton to be effective.  UCLA’s Kevin Prince is playing his first game on the road as well, so look for the freshman to have problems dealing Tennessee’s hostile home crowd.  Kiffin obviously proved last week that he will blatantly run up the score on people, so I expect him to continue throwing and attacking the UCLA defense even if they are leading.  Look for Tennessee to win this game by a significant margin.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Central Florida at Southern Mississippi 7:00pm EST
Selection:  SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI -14.5 (L)
Profile:  Southern Mississippi is going to be a great team to back this season while there’s still value on them.  This game is the first lined contest for them.  They return four starters on the offensive line, as well as their starting quarterback and running back.  Their offense is going to be even more explosive than the one that finished 31st in the country in scoring, as well as 20th in the country in yards.  They showed how good they are going to be last year in their bowl win over a very good Troy team.  They dominated UCF last year as well, winning 17-6 on the road.  That win was part of a five game winning streak to close the season.  I am not high on UCF this season, as I feel that the program is floundering under coach George O’Leary.  They finished 4-8 last year and didn’t show much promise, losing five out of their last seven games.  Look for the Golden Eagles to get the win and cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Florida International at Alabama 7:00pm EST
Selection:  FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +34 (W)
Profile:  Alabama is coming off of an emotional win over Virginia Tech in the biggest game of last weekend, so this is an obvious letdown spot for them.  While I don’t think that Florida International will win this game outright, I still think that they will be able to keep it within this point spread.  Panthers head coach Mario Cristobal has done a great job with this team, as they have shown a steady improvement over the last few seasons.  In addition, Cristobal has recruited several athletes from the state of Florida, so there won’t be as significant of a drop off in athleticism as most people would think.  Alabama doesn’t have an explosive offense either, and their starting quarterback still only has one start under his belt.  This game is FIU’s Super Bowl this season.  They didn’t have a game last week, so they have been preparing for this game all off-season.  Alabama’s program is also dealing with a flu problem as well.  Their star running back Mark Ingram is just another Tide player who has dealt with the virus this week.  Look for this FIU to get a point spread cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Kansas State at UL Lafayette 7:00pm EST
Selection:  UL LAFAYETTE +7 (W)
Profile:  New head coach Bill Snyder inherited a mess from fired head coach Tom Prince.  Kansas State tried the quick fix solution by bringing in tons of junior college players, instead of trying to build a strong recruiting foundation.  As a result, the problem lacks depth and quality at key skill positions.  Last season UL Lafayette played Kansas State very tough on the road, losing by only eight points in 45-37 shootout.  However, the Cajuns return almost every starter on both sides of the ball, while the Wildcats lost their star quarterback Josh Freeman.  Kansas State showed how much they could struggle this season, and they are going into a very tough battle here.  This game is the biggest for UL Lafayette this season, as they have a very good chance at beating a BCS conference team outright at home.  Look for the Cajuns to get the outright win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Ohio at North Texas 7:00pm EST
Selection:  NORTH TEXAS +3 (W)
Profile:  North Texas dominated a better MAC team last week, as they defeated one of last year’s Cinderella teams in Ball State.  What was even more impressive is that they were controlling that game throughout, even with it being on the road.  Their offense was dominant as well, rolling up chunks of yards on the ground and through the air.  Head coach Todd Dodge is under tremendous pressure to perform this year.  His hire was questioned by many because he was only a very successful high school coach, without proving himself in college.  However, he has now assembled a very good offense, filled with athletes across the field.  His freshman son is now the starting quarterback and has proven to be effective at getting the ball to the skilled players around him.  Ohio is a step down from Ball State, so I don’t expect them to stop North Texas.  The Mean Green’s win over the Cardinals last week was much more dominant than the final score indicated, as they controlled that game from start to finish.  The Bobcats meanwhile let Connecticut absolutely pound them last week.  I look for North Texas to come out as the much more motivated team in order to get a win in front of their home fans.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Hawaii at Washington State 7:00pm EST
Selection:  WASHINGTON STATE +2.5 (L)
Profile:  Washington State was absolutely horrible last season, and they aren’t going to be significantly better this year.  However, they did show improvement last week, as they were fairly competitive against Stanford.  That game was much closer than the result from last season’s game against the Cardinal.  WSU finally showed some offensive capability last week, as they showed flashes of being able to move the ball.  Hawaii is not the team that dominated the WAC with Colt Brennan a few seasons ago, which is why June Jones took the pay day to take advantage of his run.  They struggled last season as a result.  The Warriors have never played well when coming over to mainland for road games either.  Washington State head coach Paul Wulff knows that this game is probably one of the best chances he has of getting a win this season, so he will have his team focused for this game.  Look for the Cougars to win outright.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 11

Colorado at Toledo 9:00pm EST
Selection:  COLORADO -3.5 (L)
Profile:  The Buffaloes offense matches up very well against Toledo’s defense.  The Rockets defense was absolutely horrible against the run last week, giving up 315 yards per game on the ground to Purdue.  What is even more staggering is that they gave up 8.1 yards per rush to the Boilermakers.  That defensive performance is even worse considering that Purdue only returned two starters on their offensive line, as well as a completely new quarterback, running back, and wide receivers.  Colorado’s offense is mainly a run based offense, so I expect them to have a great deal of success against Toledo’s weak rush defense.  In addition, the MAC is one of the weakest conferences in major college football.  I feel that the Big 12 is the second best conference, so Colorado should have a significant advantage in athleticism and size.  Last week Toledo quarterback Aaron Opelt did put up some impressive passing numbers, but the bulk of those were once Toledo was getting blown out.  Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins is already being labeled as being on the hot seat after his embarrassing home loss to Colorado State.  He cannot afford to let his team have a poor showing here, especially with this game being the only contest on Friday.  The Buffaloes have the ability to dominate the Rockets if they’re motivated as well.  Look for Colorado to get a dominant road win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 7

Miami at Florida State 8:00pm EST
Selection:  FLORIDA STATE -6.5 (L)
Profile:  Last season Florida State dominated their game against Miami, despite the final score indicating that the game was close.  The Seminoles averaged 5.2 yards per rush while racking up 283 yards overall on the ground.  However, Florida State committed 4 turnovers in that game, which allowed Miami to stick around.  The Seminoles were also up 24-3 at halftime before letting the Hurricanes come back.  This year Florida State returns 7 starters on offense, including all of their offensive line and quarterback Christian Ponder.  Ponder played the entire year last year, so he is expected to have a great season this year.  Miami has a new offensive and defensive coordinator this season, and those changes create a lack of consistency in systems.  New offensive coordinator Mark Whipple has installed a new pro style system, but I expect starting quarterback Jacory Harris to struggle with it in the first few games of the season.  This game will be the first true road game for Harris, so he has to deal with the hostile environment of Florida State’s stadium, which isn’t good news for a new young quarterback learning a new offensive system.  The Seminoles defense will be their weak point this season, but they have a great deal of athletes and quickness.  Their defense should be solid enough to shut down an inexperienced quarterback at home learning a new system.  In addition, Harris has been talking a lot leading into this game, so the Seminoles players and fans will be out to make sure that his words don’t come true.  This is a rivalry game, so taking the favorite is somewhat risky.  However, Florida State has too many advantages in this game.  Other sharp bettors increased this line in August, which has caused it to be at the 6/6.5 level.  Florida State’s Bobby Bowden will have his team ready to play, as he is expecting big things out of this team.  Look for the Seminoles to get a blowout home win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 5

Minnesota at Syracuse 12:00pm EST
Selection:  MINNESOTA -6.5 (L)
Profile:  Minnesota is poised to have a breakout year under coach Tim Brewster.  He returns 15 starters overall, most notably his outstanding young quarterback Adam Weber.  Also returning is All-Big 10 receiver Eric Decker, who is a tremendous weapon for this offense.  Brewster enters his third season as the Gophers coach and is extremely excited about this season.  He has steadily improved Minnesota over the last two seasons, going from 1-11 to 7-6 and a bowl appearance last year.  However, the Gophers finished the season on a 5 game losing streak, so they are anxious to come out strong in this game.  Last season Minnesota played very well on the road as well.  They won outright at Illinois, Purdue, and Bowling Green with a 42-17 win.  They also covered the spread at Ohio State and at Wisconsin.  Meanwhile, Syracuse is a complete mess entering this season under new head coach Doug Marrone.  First year head coaches inheriting teams with a poor record from last season have done horribly both straight up and against the spread.  Overall the Orange only had two wins against Division I competition last year, but both of them were games in which their opponent didn’t take them seriously at all.  Things are so bad for their offense that they named former Duke basketball player Greg Paulus the starting quarterback.  He hasn’t played a down of college football and hasn’t taken a snap in a game in over three years.  Minnesota’s defense dramatically improved last year, and they will cause Paulus tremendous problems by disguising coverages and mixing things up.  Syracuse has little to no homefield advantage as well.  This game has flown well under the radar in the off-season, yet it is the strongest play in the first week of college football.  Look for Minnesota to win in an absolute blowout.
5 UNIT SELECTION

Georgia at Oklahoma State 3:30pm EST
Selection:  GEORGIA +5 (L)
Profile:  All of the hype is on Oklahoma State this season, while no one is talking about Georgia.  The Bulldogs lost three playmakers on last year’s offense with Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno, and Mohamed Massaquoi all going to the NFL.  However, Georgia quietly returns 12 starters, including one of the best offensive lines in the country.  Left tackle Trinton Sturdivant missed last season due to injury and will be an absolute beast on the left side.  They also return all four starters on the rest of the line from a season ago.  Meanwhile, senior Joe Cox takes over as quarterback, and he knows how to effectively run this offense.  He will not feel the normal jitters that a freshman starter will.  The Bulldogs also have a potential All-American at wide receiver with A.J. Green.  Georgia’s defense should also be very good this year, as they return six starters, including four players on the front seven.  The Bulldogs have excellent depth and speed all over that side of the ball.  Oklahoma State is receiving a great deal of press entering this year, but they really didn’t play well last season.  The Cowboys lost four out of their last six games, including three of those games by double digits.  Their only quality win was against Missouri, in a game that Chase Daniel played horrible.  In addition, Georgia head coach Mark Richt’s teams have been an absolutely dominant road point spread team during his tenure.  Look for the Bulldogs to cover the spread and possibly win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Missouri vs. Illinois 3:30pm EST
Selection:  ILLINOIS -6.5 (L)
Profile:  This selection is somewhat of a public play because everyone knows that Missouri lost starting quarterback Chase Daniel and 1st round draft pick Jeremy Maclin at wide receiver.  Those players were very key parts of the Tigers success the last few years, but they also lost seven starters on a defense that wasn’t very good last year.  Missouri’s defense gave up 186 total points last year in their 4 losses, averaging out to about 47.5 points per game to opposing offenses.  In fact, the Tigers also gave up 42 points to Illinois last year, as they simply could not stop their big plays.  Luckily though Missouri was able to outscore Illinois throughout the game.  However, I don’t see them having that same luxury against the Illini this year.  Illinois had a very disappointing end to last year, losing four out of their last five games and failing to make a bowl game.  They also return senior quarterback Juice Williams on offense, as well as NFL prospect wide receiver Arrelious Benn.  Illinois has three starters back on the offensive line.  Overall the Illini have a much better and experience offense returning, as well as two strong motivational factors heading into this game.  They want to avenge last year’s loss to Missouri, as well as redeem themselves after a poor ending to the season.  Look for Illinois to win this game straight up and against the spread.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Army at Eastern Michigan 7:00pm EST
Selection:  EASTERN MICHIGAN -5.5 (L)
Profile:  New head coach Ron English takes over an Eastern Michigan team that needs to be turned around.  However, his intensity is undeniable, and he made an immediate impact on the Louisville defense last year.  He should have an easier time improving the Eastern Michigan defense, as eight players return from that side of the ball.  They weren’t very good on defense last season, but that unit should be good enough to stop an Army offense that is trying to install the triple option.  The Golden Knights first year head coach Rich Ellerson announced that freshman quarterback Trent Steelman will get the start.  Overall, English knows that this game might be the best chance for the Eagles to get a win over the first two months, as they have road games against Northwestern, Michigan, Central Michigan, and Arkansas in September and October.  Their first few home games are against Ball State and Kent State, so look for English to have his team fired up and prepared for this game.  Eastern Michigan also has an entire preseason to prepare for Army’s new triple option offense.  The Eagles will get the win and cover.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Louisiana Tech at Auburn 7:00pm EST
Selection:  LOUISIANA TECH +13 (L)
Profile:  Louisiana Tech is poised to be a contender in the WAC this season after finishing second last year.  Head coach Derek Dooley has done a great job in building this program.  He returns nine starters on offense, including all five offensive linemen, starting quarterback and running back.  However, the Bulldogs strength is once again going to be their defense.  Dooley has really done a good job at building depth and versatility with that side of the ball.  The Bulldogs return three starters on the defensive line, as well as several players with playing experience at every other position.  Meanwhile, Auburn made a horrible hire in bringing in Gene Chizik as head coach.  He didn’t win at Iowa State, and I don’t expect him to win against other SEC coaches like Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Les Miles, Bobby Petrino, and Houston Nutt.  The Tigers are trying to install a spread offense under new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn.  Auburn simply doesn’t have the personnel to run this offense, and it is unlikely that it will click in this first game.  Oddsmakers have sent a message to bettors by making this line so low.  The Tigers need to be careful in this game, as the Bulldogs have the personnel to pull off a huge upset.  Louisiana Tech beat an SEC team last year with a 22-14 win over Mississippi State, and that game gives them confidence to believe that they have a chance against Auburn.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
2 UNIT SELECTION

BYU vs. Oklahoma 7:00pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 68.5 POINTS (W)
Profile:  This game is a perfect opportunity to take advantage of last year’s results skewing this total.  These two teams had explosive offenses last season, led by quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Max Hall.  Both players are back this season, but they won’t have the luxury of experience on the offensive lines.  Oklahoma and BYU each return just one starter on the offensive line, despite having both their starting quarterback and running back returning.  Last year’s Clemson team can tell you how hard it can be with an inexperienced line despite having playmakers back on offense.  The strengths of these teams are going to be on defense though.  Oklahoma returns one of the best defensive lines in college football, and they return six out of seven starters back on the front seven.  Meanwhile, BYU returns eight starters back on defense, including six on the front seven.  The Cougars had a decent defense last year, and they should be one of the best in the MWC this season.  I expect this game to be dominated by defenses, especially with inexperienced offensive lines going against veteran and dominant front sevens on defense.  Look for this game to fall well under the inflated total.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Stanford at Washington State 8:00pm EST
Selection:  STANFORD -17 (W)
Profile:  Stanford is poised for a breakout year this season after posting a 5-7 mark last year.  Coach Jim Harbaugh has done a great job in turning this program around and transforming them into a power running and strong defensive team.  Freshman quarterback Andrew Luck actually beat out two year starter Tavita Pritchard for the starting job.  He won’t be asked to do much in this game, as the Cardinal will use their dominant ground game to get a blowout.  Stanford beat Washington State 58-0 last year, and Washington State hasn’t said much heading into this game to think there will be a different outcome this year.  Stanford has a massive edge on the offensive and defensive lines, and they return 14 starters from last year’s team.  Washington State returns only two starters on their front seven on defense, which will spell trouble when facing a Stanford attack that will be much better than their 19th ranked rushing attack from last year.  The Cougars don’t have a homefield advantage, yet they are being priced as if they do.  Look for this game to get ugly.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama 8:00pm EST
Selection:  ALABAMA -6.5 (W)
Profile:  How many times do people have to see the same thing before they’ll learn?  The SEC is absolutely dominant in these big games against the Big 10, ACC, and Pac 10.  Last year Georgia destroyed Arizona State, Alabama crushed Clemson, and LSU routed Georgia Tech in a bowl game.  Now we get the same scenario…a seemingly quality ACC team going up against another SEC powerhouse.  Alabama did lose some players from last season’s BCS bowl team, but Nick Saban is one of the best recruiters and coaches in the country.  This team is reloaded enough to dominate Virginia Tech.  They will also more than likely have their two playmakers on offense, running back Mark Ingram and wide receiver Julio Jones.  They were in doubt because of a possible rules violation with the NCAA; however the person who allegedly gave them a trip has no ties whatsoever to the university.  Everyone seems to have this perception that Virginia Tech is a big time program, but they really haven’t done anything against the best teams in the country since 1999 and Michael Vick.  This line is way too small.  The Hokies will struggle on offense after losing their top running back in the off-season due to injury.  Tyrod Taylor is not a good passer, and Alabama has enough athletes to negate his elusiveness and speed.  Look for the Tide to win in what should almost feel like a home game for them.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Maryland at California 10:00pm EST
Selection:  CALIFORNIA -21 (W)
Profile:  California’s team is loaded heading into this season.  They return three starters on the offensive line, as well as starting quarterback Kevin Riley.  The Golden Bears also have their All-American running back Jahvid Best back.  Last year Cal was 29th in the country in rushing, averaging 186 yards per game.  That’s not good news for a Maryland team that only returns three starters on defense, with only one of those players being on the front seven.  The Terrapins will not be able to stop the Bears offense.  Last year Maryland beat California at home, scoring 35 points.  However, that was the second most points given up by the Golden Bears last year.  Look for their defense to be focused in this game, unlike last year.  Maryland has a mediocre offense at best and will not be able to jump out to an early lead like last year.  This game is a huge revenge situation for California, as they had to go out to the east coast last year and play an early start game against a team that they didn’t care about.  However, they remember that game heading into this contest.  California also has the advantage of facing Eastern Washington next week, so this game will get their full attention.  Look for Maryland to get blown out.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Sept 3

South Carolina at N.C. State 7:00pm EST
Selection:  N.C. STATE -4.5 (L)
Profile:  N.C. State was a completely different team in the second half of last year, as freshman quarterback Russell Wilson completely turned around the offense.  The Wolfpack finished the season on an 8-1-1 against the spread run, as well as winning four straight games straight up to finish the regular season.  An obvious concern though is the fact that South Carolina won the first game between these two teams last year 34-0.  However, the Gamecocks really struggled in the first three quarters of that game.  They were only leading 13-0 at the end of the third quarter, and their offense looked horrible.  South Carolina used several N.C. State mistakes and a good running performance to get the win.  In addition, the Wolfpack’s offense was absolutely anemic, as Wilson wasn’t the main quarterback at that point.  Obviously this game is a huge revenge situation for N.C. State as a result of that embarrassing road blowout.  In addition, South Carolina’s next game is their SEC opener at Georgia, so many of the players will be more interested in that game than this one.  Steve Spurrier is very high on Stephen Garcia; however he has yet to look good in a game.  He also doesn’t have much experience either.  Garcia’s main problem this year will be an offensive line that really struggled last year.  South Carolina couldn’t run the ball and gave up too many sacks.  That lackluster line will be their downfall in this game against an N.C. State defense that returns six starters, even with linebacker Nate Irving not being able to play this year.  The biggest key for that unit though is that they should have an outstanding defensive line and line backer group, which will spell trouble for South Carolina.  Look for N.C. State to get the home win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Oregon at Boise State 10:15pm EST
Selection:  OREGON +4 (L)
Profile:  This game is an obvious revenge situation for Oregon after losing at home to Boise State last year.  The Broncos were up 37-13 after the 3rd quarter, and Ducks starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was knocked out of the game early.  However, once Oregon became focused in the 4th quarter, the clear difference in athleticism was obvious.  Oregon scored three touchdowns against them in the 4th quarter, while shutting out Boise State.  Overall, I am not high on either of these teams this season, but I feel that Oregon has a huge motivational factor here because of being embarrassed at home last season.  The Broncos only return two starters on their defensive line and line backing group, and I look for them to have trouble stopping Oregon’s offense.  In addition, Boise State only returns four starters on offense.  Broncos quarterback Kellen Moore torched Oregon last year, so you can expect that they will have an excellent game plan against him this game.  He will have an entirely new wide receiver corps to throw to as well.  The Ducks have more experience returning on defense, with three returning starters on the front seven.  In addition, all of the starting front seven on defense are either juniors or seniors.  The biggest question for Oregon this year is their offensive line.  However, I feel that they will have an advantage here given the weakness of Boise’s defensive line coming back.  Overall the Ducks should be able to run the ball at will against the Broncos, as they have tremendous athletes Jeremiah Masoli and LeGarrette Blount at the quarterback and running back position respectively.  Boise State obviously has a huge homefield advantage, but almost all of those games have against very weak WAC and non-conference competition.  Oregon will not be affected by Boise State’s stadium, and I look for them to win this game outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION