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SpeculatingSports.com Sport Notes

ARE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES FIXED?
Evan Altemus

            When the average person loses a bet on a game a common response is that the game was fixed.  However, the average experienced bettor knows that almost every college and professional game isn’t intentionally influenced.  The Toledo football point shaving scandal of a few years ago and former NBA referee Tim Donaghy’s arrest and conviction of intentionally influencing games for gambling purposes are just two reasons why people wonder if some games are fixed.  Even further speculation is fueled with endings like the one in the San Diego/Pittsburgh NFL regular season game last year, where Troy Polamalu’s fumble return for a touchdown was falsely overturned.  That wrong call led to one of the most infamous endings to a football game, especially from a sports bettor’s perspective.
            To properly answer my question posed in the title, the answer is no, almost every college football game is not fixed.  So what is the point of this article?  Several undefeated teams have a lot on the line over these next few weeks, and the conferences that they are in could also benefit greatly from one of their teams going undefeated.  Teams like Iowa, Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State are all ranked high in the BCS, much higher than they are used to being at this point in the season. 
Taking that into consideration, it was not surprising to see the horrible officiating in the Indiana/Iowa game on Saturday.  The Big 10 officials, both on the field and in the replay booth, made several clear and obvious calls favoring Iowa, even though there was concrete video evidence supporting the call that would favor Indiana.  Early in the game, Indiana coach Bill Lynch challenged a ruling on the field that his running back was short on a 3rd down run.  Video replay showed that he had obviously gained the first down, yet the replay official said the spot of the ball was correct.  Another questionable call was the helmet to helmet hit called on an Indiana defender as he tackled an Iowa player toward the sidelines.  It was obvious that the Indiana defender used his shoulder to make the hit.  However, the biggest blown call was when a Hoosier touchdown pass was called incomplete by the replay booth, even though the catch was ruled a touchdown on the field and no video replays showed that the player had dropped the pass.  Usually referees are notorious for saying that there was no overwhelming evidence that supported a change to the ruling on the field.  However, in that case the replay official supposedly saw some kind of concrete evidence to clearly overturn the call, even though both commentators assumed the call on the field would stand.
A few other games this past Saturday had questionable calls made which favored undefeated teams.  Cincinnati was not called for an ineligible receiver downfield on their fake field goal, which resulted in a touchdown pass.  It was fairly obvious that several members of the offensive line were well past the line of scrimmage, yet no call was made.  In addition, Texas seemed to benefit from some generous calls in their road game against Oklahoma State.
Overall, I do not think that referees are directly told by conference officials to make calls favoring one team, but I think it’s understood by them that a conference team getting to a big time BCS bowl and/or staying undefeated could directly or indirectly affect them in some way.  One way of influencing referees is if one team is known to be a passing offense, then conference officials could tell the officiating crew to pay particular attention to pass interference penalties in the game.  I’m sure the referees understand what a subtle hint like that means.  I believe that the officiating crews in a few of this past Saturday’s college football games, especially the Indiana/Iowa game, purposefully gave certain teams preferential treatment with their calls. 

ESPN’S MISSOURI / NEVADA FREE ANALYSIS
Evan Altemus

            First thing that has to be taken into to account is the 69-17 beating that Missouri gave Nevada last year.  The Tigers offense moved the ball at will against the Wolfpack in the 2nd half.  I take two pieces of information from that game, Nevada is in a revenge situation but it was clear that they were severely outclassed by Missouri last year. 
            One of the more surprising things so far this season has been the poor play of Nevada.  Their offense was expected to be explosive this year, yet they have only put up 20 points total, despite having an entire off-season to prepare for Notre Dame and two weeks to prepare for Colorado State.  In fact, the Wolfpack were really dominated much more than the score suggested against the Rams, as the score was 35-6 late in the 4th quarter.  However, Nevada did gain 420 yards in that contest, but most of the yardage was gained in garbage time.
            Nevada’s poor performance in their first two games is what scares me here because if there is any game that they will get up for it will be this one.  They have a featured primetime game at home against a BCS team that absolutely embarrassed them last year.  Situationally this game screams Nevada, especially being an underdog of over a touchdown.
            However, Missouri has a very large advantage in athleticism and talent.  Over the last few years Nevada has a horrible point spread and straight up record when playing BCS conference teams both at home and on the road.  These power conference teams have just shredded their defense and put up tons of points.  Nevada’s defense looks to be horrible once again this year.  Missouri’s quarterback Blaine Gabbert is a very good quarterback, but this game will be his first true road start.  In addition, the Tigers have a bye week before they start Big 12 Conference play, so their motivation will at least be somewhat in question here.  It’s not likely that the Tigers players are excited to play to Reno, Nevada to play a team that they destroyed last year, especially with their rivalry game against Nebraska looming in two weeks.
            Overall I cannot recommend a play on this game.  If Missouri comes out and plays hard then they will probably cover this number.  However, if Nevada’s offense comes out strong and their defense gets turnovers then they could cover at home.  Match-up wise this game screams take Missouri, but situationally it screams Nevada.  Clear pass for me.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK FOUR KEYS
Evan Altemus

            Each week the college football schedule looks overwhelming considering the amount of plays available to bet on each week.  One of the best ways to breakdown the games are to organize the card into different categories.  Home underdogs are usually a good place to start, so let’s take a look which teams playing at home are getting points this week.

South Carolina +3 – The Gamecocks have been playing better, and Ole Miss came into this season rated highly based on last year’s results.

Nevada +7.5 – This game is very interesting, as the Wolfpack have really struggled this year and there’s not a better way to rebound than to beat a good BCS conference team in a home nationally televised primetime game.  However, this team really looked outclassed against Notre Dame and even Colorado State.

Mississippi State +12.5 – Some sharp bettors jumped all over Mississippi State +14 early in the week which drove this line down.  If want to bet the Bulldogs against LSU then you should probably wait until kickoff.  New head coach Dan Mullen seems to have this team playing much better in previous years, especially on offense.

Wyoming +5 – The Cowboys played Texas very well at home two weeks ago, while UNLV is coming off of a close home win against Hawaii.  I’m not sure if I would trust this soft Rebels team to cover a spread of more than a field goal in Laramie, especially in a place that has traditionally been tough for visitors.

Virginia Tech +3 – This spread is a ridiculous over adjustment based on the results of the last few weeks.  The Hokies never win pretty, especially not last week over Nebraska.  Meanwhile, everyone saw Miami win two nationally televised games against Florida State and Georgia Tech.  The Hurricanes are still a young team, and this will be their toughest road test so far this year.

Bowling Green +16.5 – The Falcons are getting a great deal of points here against a tough Boise State team.  This is their second straight road game, as they are coming off of a blowout road win at Fresno State.  The Broncos will also be without their best running back for this game due to injury.  Bowling Green can put points on the board, and MAC teams have traditionally really got up for these home games against better non-conference teams.  Remember what happened just a few weeks ago between Colorado and Toledo?

Purdue +7 – Notre Dame is in somewhat of a tough spot here, as they are coming off of two consecutive physically and emotionally draining games against Michigan and Michigan State.  However, last week’s game could be costly, as they lost their star receiver Michael Floyd for the year with a broken collarbone.  In addition, Jimmy Clausen suffered a foot injury, and he was clearly not playing as well in the 2nd half as a result.

Kentucky +21.5 – This game is an obvious letdown spot for Florida, as they are coming off of last week’s emotionally draining win against Tennessee.  Urban Meyer is still talking about last week’s game in the media this week.  This is a great spot to go against Florida, as they are going on the road to supposedly lowly Kentucky while several Gators are dealing with flu symptoms.  The Wildcats are also in a great revenge situation here after getting absolutely destroyed by Florida last year.
           

Another one of the biggest things I look for is big games from the previous week as well as in the next week as potential look ahead spots for some teams.  Some games that had a great deal of emotion from last week for one or both teams are:
Georgia Tech/Miami, Louisville/Kentucky, Northern Illinois/Purdue, Tennessee/Florida, Nebraska/Virginia Tech, Michigan State/Notre Dame, USC/Washington, and Texas Tech/Texas.
           

Also some potential look ahead games for next week are LSU/Georgia, Michigan/Michigan State, Oklahoma/Miami, Washington/Notre Dame, USC/California.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL LETDOWNS AND LOOK AHEAD SPOTS (WEEK 3)
Evan Altemus

            I am not too far removed from the college days, so I know some of the emotions that many of these young athletes are going through.  Playing in Division I athletics myself gave me even more insight into the ups and downs that these football players go through.  Consequently, I feel that looking for these spots where one team is going to be significantly up or down is critical to having success in handicapping college football.  Let’s take a look at which games from last week and which games looming could possibly have an effect on this week’s games.
September 12th – USC at Ohio State.  There is no doubt that the biggest game of last week was the primetime match-up between the Trojans and the Buckeyes.  USC has traditionally been dominant in these early season featured non-conference games, only to struggle in some early season conference games.  However, the media has been talking about a possible letdown this week, so the Trojans might actually focus on playing against their old coaches Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt when they face Washington this weekend.  Ohio State has dropped another game to a big time program, despite leading late in the 4th quarter.  It will be interesting to see if their players bounce back and hammer a Toledo team that will definitely be up for the Buckeyes.
September 12th – Notre Dame at Michigan.  The young Wolverines got a huge win on Saturday over Notre Dame, so it will be interesting to see if they bring a strong effort this week against Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles were horrible against Army and didn’t look much better in the 1st half last week against Northwestern, so Michigan should have no problem handling them if they bring a strong effort.  Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how Notre Dame rebounds after a demoralizing loss last week at Michigan in a game that they should have won and were leading with just a few minutes left.
September 12th – Hawaii at Washington State.  This game is well off the radar of most college football enthusiasts, but there is an important to take from it.  Hawaii is in the middle of a tough road trip, as they are staying on the mainland this week and until after their September 30th game at Louisiana Tech.  Hawaii’s coach is not letting their players gamble or take part in the Las Vegas lifestyle this week, as they prepare to face UNLV this weekend.  It will be interesting to see if the extended time away from home affects the Warriors.
September 26th – California at Oregon.  This game is one of the most important for each of these teams, so it will be interesting to see how much they get up for their games this week.  Oregon’s Chip Kelly cannot afford to have his team play poorly again against a team from a supposed weaker conference.  This week they have a difficult challenge against last year’s BCS Cinderella team, Utah.  California also has a tough task of traveling to Minnesota to play an early start (12pm EST) game.  The Bears should dominate the Gophers if they bring a good effort to Minnesota’s new stadium.

FREE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTION FOR NEWSLETTER MEMBERS
USC at Ohio State 8:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 45.5 POINTS
Profile:  Everyone loves to make a big wager in the biggest game on a Saturday of college football, even though there is much better value with lesser publicized games.  However, sometimes these featured primetime games do have a selection worthy of making a big wager on.  Tonight’s USC/Ohio State game isn’t one of them in my opinion.  I will give my analysis on tonight’s game, and then give a free premium selection on what I feel is the best play tonight.
The first thing that has to be considered is the dominance that Pete Carroll’s teams have had in these early season non-conference games, as well as bowl games against other non-conference teams.  His teams have shown the ability to fly across the country and blowout several teams, most recently Virginia, Nebraska, and Arkansas.  In fact over the last five seasons, USC’s against the spread record is 17-5 in games against non-conference opponents, including several road blowouts.  That mark is even more staggering considering that two of those ATS losses came in a home blowout of Idaho and a close win over Fresno State in a game that they didn’t take seriously. 
The second thing to consider is the line movement and value.  USC was initially put out as a 3 point favorite.  However, they had a huge blowout win over San Jose State last week, while Ohio State got a close win over Navy that was nationally televised.  Those games don’t tell the complete story though.  San Jose State’s coach Dick Tomey didn’t put much emphasis in the game in the 2nd half, as he kept sending back-ups in to get playing time against the Trojans.  Meanwhile, Ohio State was ready to get a three touchdown lead on Navy before they couldn’t convert a 4th down deep in Navy territory.  In addition, I’m pretty sure that Jim Tressel and his coaching staff spent the entire off-season game planning for USC, not Navy.  Navy’s offense is very tough to play against if the proper preparation isn’t put in, as Ohio State doesn’t have experience against teams with an option offense.  If you are a value bettor, then you would have already jumped all over Ohio State at 7.5 points because of the significant line movement based on last week’s results.
These two teams played last year with USC getting a 35-3 blowout win at home, and they even put the game on cruise control in the 2nd half.  They could have scored more than 35 points if they wanted to.  The only main difference between that offense and this one is freshman quarterback Matt Barkley.  Mark Sanchez was definitely a better overall quarterback last year than Barkley is right now.  In addition, he has to travel across the country and play his first road game in one of the most hostile environments in college football.  However, I am pretty certain that Pete Carroll will put him in situations that will ease him into the game and allow him to build confidence.  Barkley also has the luxury of playing behind the best offensive line in college football, while also having the best running back group in the nation as well.  Ohio State’s defensive line struggled in the trenches last week against Navy, and preparation or not, that’s a big concern here because they should have dominated last week because of the massive size and strength advantage.
The biggest x-factor for Ohio State is Terrelle Pryor.  He is a winner and a difference maker.  Ohio State’s offense was much difference last year against USC once Pryor entered the game.  He also showed his ability to make things happen in his comeback against Texas last season.  Pryor drastically improves everyone around him because of his play making abilities.  USC’s defense is very inexperienced after losing several of the best players in college football on that side of the ball.  I expect this game to be very back and forth, so Ohio State will be looking to make big plays throughout.
Ok, now time for my selection in this game.  I will not bet against USC and Pete Carroll in any non-conference game, especially given how Ohio State has performed against other top caliber BCS teams over the last few years.  LSU, Ohio State, Florida, and Texas all showed that they just have superior athletes and speed to the Buckeyes.  However, the line movement here is too much, especially for a freshman quarterback playing his first road game and a defense that lost several key starters from a season ago.  Since I think that this game could go back and forth or be a USC blowout, my selection is OVER 45.5 POINTS for a 2 UNIT SELECTION.  I probably would have released this play for sale as a premium selection if the total was 44 points or less.  However, I recommend buying a ½ point to get the total at 45 because that number is key for totals.  The game can end 24-21 for example and you would get a push instead of a loss.  Hope this analysis helps everyone and enjoy the game tonight; it should be a good one.
2 UNIT SELECTION

COLLEGE FOOTBALL QUICK HITTERS – SEPTEMBER 1ST
Evan Altemus

            Knowing several of the small stories is critical to having success in the first week of college football.  Also, these keys may prevent potential pitfalls that a bettor otherwise may not know about.  Let’s take a look at some of the recent news stories that may have an impact on a team you are looking to back/fade in the next few weeks.
DUKE BLUE DEVILS – The Blue Devils have had to deal with a strain of the H1N1 flu virus during their training camp.  At least half of their players were impacted by it and treated during camp.  It has affected some of what second year coach David Cutcliffe has wanted to do, but it shouldn’t have a significant impact on their season.  Luckily they have a weak opening schedule to start the season.
IOWA HAWKEYES – Iowa’s starting running back Jewel Hampton is expected to miss the entire season after suffering a knee injury.  Hampton’s injury is significant, as he was expected to be a good replacement for All-American running back Shonn Greene.  The Hawkeyes have a good offensive line, but they lack depth at the running back position.  Their offense is predicated on running the ball, so this injury is a significant problem.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE – Alabama has two major issues that they have had to deal with.  First, the statuses of star wide receiver Julio Jones and running back Mark Ingram are still unknown for the start of the season, as they face a possible four game suspension for a trip in the off-season.  Those two players are very important to the Tide offense.  In addition, several players have dealt with a strain of the swine flu, although it’s not expected to have a significant impact for their first game of the season against Virginia Tech.  They have been trying to quarantine affected players as much as possible.
USC TROJANS – Freshman Matt Barkley has been named the starter after having a good camp, as well as the injury to Aaron Corp.  Barkley hasn’t played like a freshman in camp so far, as he has impressed coaches/teammates with his football intelligence.  He will be aided by having one of the best offensive linemen/running backs in the country around him.  Look for head coach Pete Carroll to put him in situations that will enable him to succeed.  However, USC has been dealing with several injuries in camp, including to starting wide receiver Ronald Johnson, who broke his collarbone.  Carroll was very upset about the injury, much more so than normal.
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES – Much has been made about the violation allegations regarding practice time with Michigan’s football team.  It will be interesting to see if this issue brings the team together or causes them to be distracted.  Sharp bettors seem to think it will bring them together because the line on Michigan creeped up slightly for their opener against Western Michigan after the incident was reported.
BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES – The Eagles have a huge problem at the quarterback position this season after returning starter Dominique Davis decided to transfer after being suspended for academic reasons.  They will have to rely on a quarterback who has no previous snaps with their offense heading into this year.  Luckily they have two easy games to start the season until their ACC opener with Clemson on September 19th.  However, their offense really struggled last year, so it’s going to be interesting to see where the points are going to come from this season.
N.C. STATE WOLFPACK – N.C. State seems like they are going to have a good season, as they return several starters on both sides of the ball.  However, they will be without their best defensive player, line backer Nate Irving, after his car accident this summer.  He was an important part of their defense last season and will be missed this year.  Starting quarterback Russell Wilson must stay healthy and be effective in order for this team to make it back to a bowl game.

THE SQUARE SHARP THEORY
Evan Altemus

            A few weeks ago I had a chance to sit in on a meeting of some of the sharpest sports bettors/handicappers in the world.  I’m not afraid to admit when someone is a better bettor than me, so I’ll admit that these guys knew more than I did when it comes to actually betting on sports.  However, there is a difference between betting and handicapping, and I felt like I wasn’t too far behind these guys when it comes to handicapping skill.  Anyway, one of the things that was discussed and brought up several times was the idea of the square sharp.  I’m going to discuss this theory and maybe it might help some people to improve their handicapping by making an accurate self-assessment of their capping ability.
            In order to not plagiarize, I will give my definition of what a square and sharp bettor is.  In my opinion, a square bettor is the average guy who puts down $20 on five team teasers that consist mainly of large favorites.  He also mainly bets favorites either with the spread or moneyline, while also only betting totals to go over. A sharp bettor meanwhile will research their selections immensely and have concrete reasons for their plays.  Some of them make only a few bets, while others might make close to a hundred bets or more per week.  These guys only bet parlays when the side and total are related in a game, and they only do teasers when the lines are the most accurate and are getting the best value for their teaser, such as with NFL sides.  However, with explosion of the internet and sports information sites, the average bettor is becoming “sharper”.  This trend has led to a huge group of what why I think are square sharps.
            First of all I think at least 90% of the so-called pro handicappers are what I call square sharps.  I might have just made some more enemies with that statement, but it’s the truth and they know it.  I feel that I am a full fledged square sharp when it comes to baseball handicapping, maybe even worse.  I am still somewhat of a square sharp when it comes to basketball but am getting better.  However, I feel that I am an actual sharp when it comes to pro and college football betting/handicapping.  My results in various sports from last season seem to prove my thinking as well. 
So what exactly is a square sharp?  The average “wise guy” or supposedly “sharp handicapper” will always look to back home underdogs, teams with revenge angles, and letdown situations.  These guys are also the pro handicappers who claim they have a 25-4 ATS play, or a play backed by an 80% long-term winning rate, etc.  However, the lines are set to beat the wise guys and sharp bettors now, instead of the average $20, 5 team parlay bettor.  The sportsbooks know that the average bettor will find a way to lose the money in their accounts, so they don’t even bother with them. Oddsmakers already account for all of the old trends that supposedly sharp handicappers think about; therefore the value is diminished using them.  There are three differences between a square sharp and an actual sharp handicapper.  The first difference is the overall understanding of how much each factor/player truly affects the point spread and totals.  The second difference is the amount of work put into researching games, and the third difference is the depth of knowledge of each team.  I’ll briefly discuss what I mean by all three of the above theories.
First let’s take the Washington Redskins as an example.  The truly sharp bettor knows that a horrible injury for that team would be to lose their starting left tackle Chris Samuels.  He is an absolute key to that team, and it showed with the Redskins last year what happens to a team when their offensive line gets banged up and doesn’t have depth.
Second, the true sharp handicapper will not only look at box scores, stats, and scores from previous games.  They will look at drive charts, watch replays of games in-depth, sacks, turnovers, injuries, quotes/injuries from practices, etc.  Essentially they are trying to figure out what the true “power rating” of each team and compare it to the oddsmakers power rating, or what people refer to as a spread.  Finally, all of the extra studying and researching allows truly sharp bettors to have a better overall understanding of each team.  One example of this idea would be Georgia Tech from last year.  Sharp handicappers know that the key to stopping their option offense is a quick and athletic defensive line, which is what North Carolina had last year.  Consequently, they were able to shut down the Yellow Jackets.  Essentially truly sharp handicappers conduct more research; know what to look for, and have a much more accurate assessment of each team and how certain variables will affect them.
            Making an honest self-assessment of where you are as a handicapper will help you to develop and improve over time.  It is not bad to be a square sharp handicapper because it means you are close to becoming a true sharp.  However, there must be an understanding of what areas you are weak in and what is causing your losses.  Very few people can claim that they are actual sharp handicappers, so the process to get there is long but is worth it in the end.  My best recommendation is to keep track of your results using a spreadsheet and really look at your selections to see where you were right and wrong in your thinking, win or lose.  However, let me just say that there is a difference between handicapping and betting.  This idea will be looked at in an article to be released at a later date.

NFL PRESEASON QUICK HITTERS – AUGUST 23RD
Evan Altemus

            The average football fan and bettor doesn’t pay attention to the preseason, as they feel that these so-called meaningless games have no bearing on the outcome of regular season games.  However, they are dead wrong, as there are things to be taken from most preseason games.  Here are some quick pieces of information that I have noticed up through Saturday August 22nd.

DALLAS COWBOYS – Their first team offense really looked good against Tennessee and should be ready to come out firing at the start of the regular season.  They are very talented and deep at the running back position.  Remember, they didn’t have the services of potential star running back Felix Jones for a good portion of last season.  The question is will this team stay motivated and focused throughout the season.

DENVER BRONCOS – Everyone saw or heard about how bad Kyle Orton looked in week one of the preseason, but he looked vastly better in week two.  Remember he wasn’t all that bad for Chicago last year, and Josh McDaniels is a good offensive mind.  Everyone seems to want to fade them this year, but they might be better than most people think.  They have a very talented offensive line, which should make things easier for Orton and the running game.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS – I’ve been unlucky enough to watch both of Washington’s preseason games.  Needless to say their 1st string offense has been horrible.  Granted they played against Baltimore and Pittsburgh’s tough defenses, but still.  Their defense looks very strong again this year, and Brian Orakpo is going to be a force this season.  Look to take the Redskins under the total as much as possible early this season.

OAKLAND RAIDERS / TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – Don’t be fooled by these team’s offensive performances in the preseason.  They have good depth at quarterback, which has allowed for them to put up points against 2nd and 3rd string defenses.  However, both teams have issues at the starting quarterback position.  I expect Jeff Garcia to see some action as the starting quarterback at some point in the regular season.

ATLANTA FALCONS / GREEN BAY PACKERS – Both of these team’s starting offenses have been excellent in the preseason.  I look for big seasons from Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers.  These teams are going to be great point spread selections until the betting marketplace fully catches up to their true rating, as they are being under-rated in the NFC.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – Everyone is picking Philadelphia as their “dark horse” team this season.  However, they were in the NFC Championship game last year, so it’s ridiculous to label them as a dark horse.  The Eagles did add some great players to their offense, such as Jason Peters, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin, but they are dealing with several injuries, including four out of five starting offensive linemen banged up.  I could see the Eagles not meeting expectations this year if their offensive line doesn’t get enough reps together.  Philadelphia has been dealing with injuries for the last few seasons, and it seems like they might have the same problem this year.  Look for them to struggle if they can’t keep their key players healthy.

ARIZONA CARDINALS – Don’t be fooled by the Cardinals lack of scoring in the preseason.  This team’s first string offense has moved the ball effectively, despite not putting points on the board.  It appears that Ken Whisenhunt is not putting an emphasis on these scrimmage games either.

CHICAGO BEARS – Jay Cutler looked vastly better in his second preseason game, which is even more significant considering that it came against the Giants first team defense.  The Bears should be a great over team this year with Cutler, a strong running game, and an aging defense.

A UNIQUE AND WINNING APPROACH TO THE NFL PRESEASON
Evan Altemus

            The internet is flooded with articles about why you should bet on the NFL preseason and how to do it successfully.  Most of them state the same generic stuff like look at the quarterback rotations of each team, bet on first year head coaches, and take the under in the first week of the preseason.  However, blindly following all of those ideas last year would have left you with a winning percentage below 50% and a lower bankroll.  Were last year’s results just an anomaly?  If the listed strategies truly do not work, then how do you make a profit in the preseason?  Let’s answer these two questions and talk about some other NFL preseason ideas and strategies.
            Last preseason teams with legitimate quarterback competitions were around 50% against the spread.  This trend goes against what the average handicapper will tell you should happen, as usually active competitions lead to more aggressive play calling and more motivated quarterbacks.  Meanwhile, first year coaches last year also went about 50% against the spread, defying what the experts would expect.  Furthermore, the under went 7-9 against the spread in week 1 of the preseason, including the Hall of Fame Game.  In my opinion, there is one main reason for these rare outcomes.  With the increase in sports wagering and the love of the betting public in wagering on football, oddsmakers have been increasingly forced to put out sharper lines in these NFL exhibition games.  As a result, they accounted for these factors much more so than in previous years and over adjusted the lines as a result.  So if the oddsmakers are setting sharper lines by accounting for previous trends, then how is it possible to make a profit in the preseason?
            First and foremost, the most important thing I am going to use in my handicapping are quotes from the head coach.  These quotes in interviews and press conferences are so critical to making any kind of selection in the preseason.  However, there is so much more to using these quotes than just deciding if the team is going to play hard or not.  For example, if a coach says that he wants to work on the passing game, even though his quarterback rotation is horrible, they will probably not have success.  Also, if a coach says he wants to focus on running the ball or defensive packages, then the under would be worth a look.  Each preseason game requires a very unique approach from any other game in any other sport.  It is absolutely essential to try and figure out what each head coach’s goals are heading into the game.  If you are able to figure out what these factors are with confidence, then decide if they are strong enough to make a selection.  For example, one coach might state publicly that he wants his team to play well, but if that team is around a six or seven point favorite, then the play is probably not worth taking.  However, that team might be worth a look if they are a small favorite or an underdog.
            Coaches comments are the majority of what I base my selections on the NFL preseason, but there are a few other factors that are worth taking a look at.  These factors include scheduling situations, motivational factors, injuries, quarterback rotations, value, as well as anything else that might come along.  An example of a scheduling situation was last year when Dallas when straight to Denver, staying on the road, instead of going back home after their preseason week one game at San Diego.  Consequently, the Cowboys lost against the spread and straight up at Denver in week two.  Numerous injuries can also be a key to use.  A coach will be reluctant to play his better players as long if he’s already dealing with injuries.  Selections on large underdogs, as well as the over on a small total and the under on a large total are worth taking a look at.
            No matter how well you think you have a preseason game nailed down, these exhibition games always have more unpredictability to them than the average regular season game.  I will never recommend someone making a large selection on a preseason game, and I think the best strategy is to make a select number of small to average size plays in these exhibition games.
            Overall, the NFL preseason can be profitable if handicapped correctly.  However, using the typically strategies that the average professional handicapper will talk about isn’t going to allow for a very profitable preseason, as the lines makers fully incorporate them into making the lines.  The bottom line is to figure out what the coaches want to do, then decide if a selection is worth taking after accounting for some of the other factors listed above.

WHY YOUR NFL TEAM DOESN’T NEED A SUPER STAR WIDE RECEIVER

Evan Altemus

This NFL off-season has seemed to be dominated by stories about big name wide receivers.  These stories have either been off the field issues, mainly arrests and run-ins with the law, or trade demands.  Brandon Marshall, Donte Stallworth, Plaxico Burress, Terrell Owens, and Anquan Boldin have all made the headlines of various sports outlets due to their behavior or demands.  Let’s take a look at if these receivers are worth the trouble for the current team or if your team should go out and make a trade for one of these stars.
            Donte Stallworth and Terrell Owens have been in the headlines this off-season due to Stallworth’s DUI and manslaughter charge and Owen’s absence from some of Buffalo’s off-season workouts.  Stallworth has had nowhere near the troubles of other skilled receivers, but then he is not at the same skill level as Owens, Boldin, Burress, or Marshall.  Because of his lack of previous run-ins with the law, Cleveland is standing by him, especially after his huge plea deal.  Meanwhile, Terrell Owens is another issue, and he may be a ticking time bomb this season.  He wasn’t playing at as high of a level last year as in previous years, but now he has to go and play in the cold and windy conditions of Buffalo, which isn’t conducive to a potent passing game.  In addition, Buffalo arguably won’t be in the mix for a Super Bowl, which is what Owens wants to win badly.  Essentially, there is a perfect storm brewing for T.O. because he won’t be as involved with offense as he’s used to, he won’t be playing at his usual high level, and the Bills will struggle just to make the playoffs.  Look for another classic T.O. meltdown unless his agent Drew Rosenhaus can keep him under control.
            The bulk of the stories this off-season have been generated by the trio of receivers Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, and the most entertaining of them all, Chad Ocho Cinco, Johnson, Ochocinco, or whatever the hell he wants to be called.  Boldin definitely has the only valid complaint of any receiver.  He is one of the best receivers in the league, yet he continues to be disrespected by Arizona’s front office.  Boldin has also gone over 1,000 yards in receiving in 4 of his 6 seasons, and he is also only 28 years old.  He would arguably be very motivated if a team would show appreciation for him with an appropriate contract, and he would also be out to prove to the Cardinals what they were missing.  However, his downfalls are that he is injury prone, and his blowout on offensive coordinator Todd Haley was inexcusable. 
            Marshall has the most upside of any of the receivers because of his age and potential.  However, he is a head case, and he has already had several off the field issues in his young career.  Now Marshall is demanding to be traded because he senses the potential problems that the Broncos are in for this season.  Overall the young receiver would not be worth the risk because his off the field issues are likely to get worse as his career progresses, especially when he either isn’t getting the ball or his team isn’t winning, similar to Terrell Owens. 
            Burress is another case of a receiver that isn’t worth the problems.  Several players have said that he is one of the worst teammates they have ever seen, mainly because of his lackadaisical attitude toward practice and meetings.  The Giants were lucky to get one Super Bowl with him, but it is unlikely that he will show any kind of consistency for the rest of his career. 
            An analysis of the Super Bowl winners over the last several seasons shows that the key isn’t usually having a star wide receiver.  In fact, almost every champion was without a mega star pass catcher.  Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, and Tampa Bay won with defense, while other teams like Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Denver used a balanced passing offensive attack and a great quarterback to get their rings.  The best thing to hope for is that your team doesn’t get or have a problem ridden superstar wide receiver.

HOW I HANDICAP BASEBALL
Evan Altemus

            In the past few years baseball has been my weakest sport out of all.  In fact, I have had winning seasons in almost every season in pro/college football and basketball over the last three years but was just able to break even in baseball last year.  However, I feel that my performance was a major breakthrough because it was the third straight year in baseball that I have shown an improvement in total units at season end.  I am also very confident about this season, as I have already started off this baseball season winning eight of eleven selections.  This article will discuss most of the things I look at when handicapping the most popular summer sport.
INTIAL SCAN – The first part of my process is to scan the entire baseball card for things that stand out to me, most specifically pitching match-ups.  Also, I look for teams to back or fade because of winning/losing streaks, line-up changes, and teams with hot hitting or slumping line-ups.  This initial scan will generate a list of about one to four selections around Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, the days which have the first game of each series.  This list grows as the series’ between teams gets to the third and fourth game, so Wednesday and Sunday’s lists usually have most selections after the initial scan.  This list is around five to eight plays.  However, further research must be done to whittle down the card.
PITCHING MATCH-UPS – The first piece of in-depth research is on the starting pitchers.  I look at the current state of each pitcher but don’t put a ton of weight into it, as pitchers have various ups and downs throughout the season.  However, it is important to notice if a pitcher is struggling against everyone or is in a consistent rhythm.  Next, I’ll look at the past history of both starters against their opposing line-ups, as well as their performance at that specific ball park.  Some pitchers have publicly stated that they love/hate pitching at certain stadiums because of the mound, lay out of the park, etc. 
BULLPENS – The bullpen of each team is probably most over-looked aspect of handicapping baseball games.  However, the pen can have the biggest effect on the outcome of the game.  One of the best examples of this point is a game where the starting pitchers are excellent and have had success against the opposing line-ups.  However, both teams have horrible bullpens and good hitting line-ups.  This game could have a total in the 10-11 range and still fly over the total, even with the starting pitchers giving up just a few runs combined.  In addition, one team could be dominating the entire game, but if their bullpen was overused the night before and lack depth, then they can still lose the game despite having the lead throughout.  It’s important to stay away from games where the starting pitcher will have to have a dominating performance to overcome a struggling bullpen.
HOME/ROAD PERFORMANCE – Baseball is a fickle sport sometimes and is hard to predict by just looking at numbers and statistics.  Some divisional match-ups, for example, always have the home team dominating the series, regardless of the pitching match-up.  One of the best examples of this has been the Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox match-up.  Each team has dominated the series on their home field over the past few years, regardless of the starting pitching match-ups.  These kinds of trends are critical to notice and can produce very consistent profits, while these games can yield very poor results if analyzed incorrectly. 
TRENDS – I think that one of the biggest factors in baseball handicapping is looking at short-term trends, specifically series trends.  I very rarely like to go against trends that have been consistent throughout an entire series heading into the last game.  These tendencies are either teams going for a series sweep, or hitting streaks/slumps.  I will also use these short term results to look for situations with excellent value, specifically with underdogs that the betting public is still severely fading.
VARIOUS OTHER FACTORS – Some of the final factors that I look at are things like wind/weather conditions, umpire, and possible line-up changes due to rest/injury.  These small pieces of information can have a significant impact on the game.  Wind has a huge effect in a ballpark like Wrigley Field, where the wind direction can have the biggest impact on the total runs scored.  Umpires can also have a big impact on pitchers performance and the total.  Certain umpires have a bigger strike zone than others, which lead to better performances by pitchers
SANITY CHECK – One final check is something that isn’t very technical, but I call it the common sense check.  It’s basically a question where I ask myself, does this play make sense?  Sometimes people can get so caught up in numbers and statistical analysis that they fail to take a common sense approach to handicapping.  This very general check always me to take a step back and just think about the outcome of the game without numbers and match-ups running through my head.
            The previously discussed factors are a bulk of the analysis behind my baseball selections.  I have fine-tuned my baseball handicapping over the last few years and have found that my analysis has produced increasingly consistent results.  Feel free to use the previously listed examples to aid in your handicapping skills, as we all ultimately have the same goal of beating the books.   

HANDICAPPING EARLY SEASON BASEBALL
Evan Altemus

            Handicapping early season baseball requires a slightly different approach from the rest of the season, as well as a unique approach from any other sport.  Baseball also has a vast amount of information available, much more than any of the other three major sports.  In fact, successful baseball wagering requires bettors to know pitching match-ups, streaks/trends, line-up changes, travel situations, etc.  Let’s look at some keys to focus on in the months of April and May.
YOUTHFUL EXUBERANCE– One of the best ways to find excellent value early in the season is to back rookie/young pitchers with quality stuff who are playing at their potential.  It took the betting market almost the entire 2007 season to catch up to the true value of San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum.  Cincinnati’s Edinson Volquez is an example of a young prospect that began pitching at his potential last year, but bettors and oddsmakers took over two months to fully notice his improved pitching.  Noticing these quality young starters early in the season will provide several profitable opportunities, as well as excellent value.  Basically don’t be afraid to back a select few young prospects who are pitching well in April.
VETERAN KNOWLEDGE – Veteran pitchers have a wealth of statistics to look at.  Most hitters have already seen these veterans, so savvy bettors will look at which line-ups or hitters have historically had success or struggled against them.  In addition, some veterans have always started out strong or slow in April and May.  Some of these experienced pitchers see their arms wear down as the season progresses, while it takes others a few months to get into a rhythm.  Knowing these experienced pitchers trends will allow smart bettors to get numerous betting opportunities in the first two months of the season.
HOT / COLD STARTS – Wouldn’t it have been nice to know Tampa Bay was going to win the AL East at the start of the season?  Almost every one of the Rays wins last season in April and May had payouts of -130 or better, including several better than even money.  Meanwhile, veteran teams like the New York Yankees have traditionally had slow starts, as their experienced players don’t have a sense of urgency in April and May.  These teams are also over-priced due to previous season’s successes.  Anaheim, St. Louis, and Philadelphia are three teams to look to fade early this season.  They all have either pitching or line-up problems, while also being overvalued because of strong play in previous seasons.  Meanwhile, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are two teams that come to mind which started off playing close to .500 baseball or better in previous seasons, before fading significantly as the season wore on.  Texas, Toronto, San Francisco, Florida, Oakland, Seattle and Kansas City will provide bettors some excellent value early in the season, with Texas being the biggest bet-on team over the first two months of the year.  The Rangers have a very potent line-up, and extensive work has been done on their young pitching staff in the off-season.  This team will challenge for a division title or the wildcard.
SPRING TRAINING – Players and teams have very different approaches to spring training, especially pitchers.  Some pitchers are working on some things, while others are trying to secure a spot in the rotation.  Therefore, spring training results should be used as just another piece of information to add to your decision making but not the sole factor in handicapping.  Spring training results are slightly more relevant than preseason football, but not much more. 
            Baseball has more statistics than any other sport, which can either be a huge advantage or significant detriment to bettors.  Savvy bettors will do the research and uncover edges all season, while uneducated bettors will just bet large favorites, while failing to make a profit or lose their bankroll.  Noticing these early season trends, match-up advantages, and value situations will lead to profitable April and May in baseball.

THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD TO THE FINAL FOUR
Evan Altemus

            After over four months of basketball, the Final Four is finally here.  Villanova, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Connecticut all experienced ups and downs throughout the season on their way to Detroit.  Let’s take a look at their past performances to see if there is anything that may help in handicapping these final games.
            North Carolina started the season as the #1 team in the country, but they didn’t have that top spot for many weeks in February and March.  However, the Tar Heels were arguably the best team in the country during that time span.  They only lost two games in February and March, with one coming in overtime at Maryland and the other one coming in the ACC tournament to Florida State.  North Carolina didn’t bring their best effort in that tournament loss.  Roy Williams wanted his team rested for the NCAA tournament, and they were without star guard Ty Lawson.  Meanwhile, I feel that there was some value on North Carolina heading into the tournament because the public was raving about how good the Big East was while overlooking the Tar Heels.  What is most notable about their season though is the fact that all four of their losses came down to the wire.  North Carolina was never significantly outplayed by their opponents, regardless of motivational or injury disadvantages.  Three of their four losses came down to the final shot and all four losses were by single digits.
            Villanova is probably the most surprising team left in the tournament.  They played well all season, but no one thought that they would make it this far.  The Wildcats only had one loss through November and December, but they did not play well in a neutral court loss to Texas.  They were also an unimpressive 4-3 in the month of January.  However, those losses did come against Marquette, Louisville, and Connecticut.  Villanova was able to finish the regular season on an 11-2 run, with their only defeats coming in letdown losses to Georgetown and at West Virginia.  One interesting, and lesser discussed, note about the Wildcats is the quality of opponents that they have defeated in the tournament.  They have very impressive wins over Pittsburgh, UCLA, and Duke.  In fact, they absolutely dominated the Bruins and Blue Devils in the 2nd halves of those games.  Their grinding win against the Panthers shows their toughness and resiliency.  Overall, Villanova had a very good team coming into this season, but they also turned things on at just the right time.
            Michigan State has played well all season, but they sprinkled enough losses throughout to keep from being considered for a #1 spot in the polls.  They were only significantly outplayed in three games all season.  The Spartans had very poor performances against Maryland, North Carolina, and at Purdue.  Interestingly enough the Spartans were blown out at Ford Field by the Tar Heels in a featured non-conference game earlier this season.  Meanwhile, their losses against Maryland, Northwestern, and Penn State were simply because of a lack of effort.  They have played well both at home and on the road.  Their 10-1 straight up record on the road this season is tied for the best in college basketball.  Another interesting note about Michigan State is that they had to deal with injury problems all season.  Overall, the Spartans are a tough and very deep team.  They have about eight to nine players that see extended minutes during the game.  Their downfall though is their occasional lack of scoring.  One of the biggest factors though is head coach Tom Izzo.  He always puts his teams in position to succeed in the tournament, and he is very tough to beat with extended time to prepare.
            The final team left to review is the Connecticut Huskies.  They have been at, or near, the top of the polls all season.  This team combines size, athleticism, and toughness.  What is impressive about this team is that they only had one real letdown game all year.  That loss came at the start of conference play to Georgetown.  They could never figure out Pittsburgh, losing twice to the Panthers, both at home and on the road.  The Huskies also overcame an injury to star guard Jerome Dyson back in early February.  His injury was thought to be a season killer to the title hopes of UConn, but they have been able to play well in his absence.  Connecticut’s strengths are obviously their size and athleticism.  They also have a dominant inside presence with Hasheem Thabeet.  However, their weakness is a lack of depth.  Only six guys get the bulk of the playing time, so tired legs are always a concern for coach Jim Calhoun.  The Huskies also have a big advantage with Calhoun.  He is a proven winner in the biggest games, as his teams have an excellent Final Four record.
            Overall, the Final Four will feature two excellent match-ups of teams which have overcome ups and downs this season.  They all have strengths and weaknesses though, so it will be interesting to see which teams step up and get to the championship game.

CONTRARIAN VIEW ON THE NCAA TOURNAMENT 1ST ROUND
Evan Altemus

            I’m a big believer in looking at the past in order to predict the future, so I decided to take a look at last year’s 1st round games.  One surprising trend was that favorites went 21-10 against the spread and #1 and #2 seeds were 5-3 against the spread as well.  One game had a spread with a pick ‘em spread, which is why there are only 31 games being looked at here.  My theory is that the betting public lines up on underdogs during the 1st round of the NCAA tournament.  Oddsmakers know this and release lines that present excellent value with favorites.  Let’s take a closer look at this idea to see if it was an anomaly last year or something worth looking at in this year’s tournament.
            First and foremost, the topic which generates the most interest during March Madness is which team is going to be this year’s George Mason or Davidson.  In addition, the average person is trying to figure out which underdogs will pull off the upset this year in the 1st round.  So much talk is about these potential “Cinderella” teams, that most of the seeds around the #3-#7 range are ignored.
            The betting public is also fixated on these Cinderella teams as well.  The average bettor focuses on which 1st round underdogs to take, instead of looking for value with under-rated favorites.  The oddsmakers know this as well, which is why they don’t give most of the favorites enough points in the 1st round.  Last season teams like Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Butler, Marquette, Michigan State, Xavier, Pittsburgh, and Louisville were put on supposed upset alert, as they all faced teams which the supposed experts on television and betting public thought were capable of pulling the upset.  However, the previous list of favorites all got dominating wins over their opponents, and most of their wins from a point spread perspective were never in doubt. 
            Let’s also take a look at last year’s 1st round games involving the following seeds where the public is fixated on picking upsets:  3rd seed vs. 14th seed, 4th vs. 13th, 5th vs. 12th, 6th vs. 11th and 7th vs. 10th.  Let’s remove the St. Mary’s vs. Miami game from our discussion, as that game had a pick ’em point spread.  That leaves 19 match-up to take a look at.  The favorites in those games went an astonishing 14-5 against the spread!  Siena, Kansas State, Villanova, San Diego, and Western Kentucky were the only teams to cover against the spread, and they all won outright.  Essentially, these games involving teams on supposed upset alert had favorites go 74%.  The few underdogs which did cover won outright.  However, I don’t consider Kansas State or Western Kentucky true bracket buster underdog winners, as they were very evenly matched talent wise with their opponents.  In fact, the argument could be made that they shouldn’t have been underdogs.  Kansas State had Michael Beasley and Bill Walker, while Western Kentucky had Courtney Lee. 
            Bottom line, from a betting perspective, try to look at undervalued favorites in the 1st round, as the betting public will be lining up on the underdogs.  This time of the year is one of the rare occasions where the value is on the favorite, as the public will be looking for upset shockers.  Oddsmakers know this and have adjusted the lines accordingly.  Picking and betting on favorites is not as exciting but making money is.  Although, I’d rather be boring, pick the favorites, and have a profitable 1st round.

LESSONS TO TAKE AWAY FROM THURSDAY’S CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS

Evan Altemus

            Thursday was the first day for conference tournament action from the biggest conferences in the NCAA.  There were some interesting results from those games, but they were not as surprising as you might think.  Let’s take a look at how we can use these outcomes to help predict what will happen in the NCAA tournament, when it matters the most.
            First and foremost, several bubble teams struggled over the last few days, as there are reasons why they were on the edge of making the tournament in the first place.  Teams like Providence, Arizona, UNLV, Kansas State, and Notre Dame all lost or did not play particularly well in the last two days.  These bubble teams have been inconsistent all season, yet the betting public feels that they will automatically cover a spread just because it’s a “must win” game of the.  They had several games though down the stretch that they desperately needed and sometimes weren’t able to get, which is why they are now in this position.  These teams haven’t shown the ability to develop as the season has progressed, which is why they now have to scramble to get into the tournament.
However, teams like Michigan, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and Baylor all had very impressive blowout wins or wins against top caliber competition in their opening round conference tournament games.  All of those teams, except Baylor, have improved as the season has gone on and/or lost several close games that could have gone either way.  They have developed throughout the season and are better than the oddsmakers and betting public are giving them credit for.  One interesting note about Baylor is that they are a team loaded with seniors which under performed all season.  They have the talent and experience capable of a run and finally played up to their ability with wins over Nebraska and Kansas in the Big 12 tournament.  Watch out for supposed lesser teams with a great deal of experience over the next three days.
One last trend to take away from the last two days of conference tournament action is the parity in almost every game.  Supposed Final Four locks like Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and Oklahoma were all challenged or beat by under-rated conference competition.  The main point to take away is to look for under-rated quality underdogs in the tournament, especially if these teams have improved significantly over the second half of the season.  These teams will come in confident because of their recent play.  They will also be facing opponents which are over-confident and over-rated.  These dogs not only have an outstanding chance of covering, but winning outright as well.  Teams that come to mind are West Virginia, Villanova, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Syracuse, VCU, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Auburn.  Now of course this is assuming that these teams make the tournament.  These teams might seem like obvious choices based on their recent performances, but if they are that obvious then why didn’t you take them over the last few days?  The betting public will continue to ignore these improving teams capable of pulling off several wins as underdogs in the NCAA tournament.
There is a tremendous amount of parity in college basketball this season.  The best way to be successful in the NCAA tournament is to look for undervalued underdogs which have consistently improved throughout the season.  Look for the rest of March Madness to be loaded with upsets and top teams losing earlier and more often than expected.

HOW TO CONSISTENTLY BEAT POINT SPREADS
Evan Altemus

            First and foremost, oddsmakers lines are very accurate, so bettors start out at a disadvantage right from the start because of the juice.  So how is it possible to make consistent profits from wagering on sports?  Let’s take a look at some of the ways to consistently beat point spreads.
            For the sake of argument, this article will discuss point spread handicapping and not totals.  I tend to focus more on point spreads anyway, so this article will provide better information if it is more specific.  So let’s throw everything aside and answer the ultimate question.  How do we make consistent long term profits betting on point spreads?  One of the biggest questions people ask is how many games are too many to bet on in a given weekend, week, month, etc?  In my opinion, there is no correct answer to this question.  It all depends on your approach and system.  Your system may force you to bet several games in a given day, or you may only make a handful of wagers each week.  There is no right or wrong answer.  Now obviously if you bet every point spread on a given day with no plan, then that would be too many selections.  But what are some of the things a professional handicapper looks for when analyzing a card?
            I’m going to focus this article now on just football and basketball, as they have the most similarities in regard to analyzing point spreads.  One of the first things I do is to scan a card looking for teams coming off of big, emotional wins.  Then I make the determination of the quality of that given team.  The lower the quality of a team, the more likely they are to have a major letdown in their next game, especially if they have to play their next game on the road.  This kind of situation will produce one of the most profitable long term point spreads results in my opinion.  One of the better examples of this theory is the February 13th game between Villanova and West Virginia.  They are higher quality than I usually look for, but it illustrates my point, while using common teams that people know and understand better.  Villanova was coming off of a big home win and point spread cover against Marquette, while West Virginia was coming off of a home loss to Pittsburgh.  Consequently, the Mountaineers were only a small home favorite against the Wildcats.  However, that game featured a perfect storm of situations.  West Virginia was motivated to rebound from their loss, while Villanova came in over confident because of their big win.  In addition, there was tremendous value on the Mountaineers because they were being discounted in the betting market, while the Wildcats were given too much credit and overvalued.  As a result, West Virginia was only a small favorite, giving bettors excellent point spread value.  They proceeded to get a wire to wire blowout win, with a point spread that was never in doubt.  Let’s look at another way to have long term point spread betting success.
            The second key is to look for games that match one team with a strength that is the other team’s weakness, especially if the team with the strength is an underdog.  A very strong recent example of this theory is the March 5th game between California and Arizona.  The Wildcats are horrible at defending the three point line, one of the worst of all of the major conference teams.  They were facing California, the best three point shooting team in all of college basketball, making them at 44.5%.  The Wildcats also had to deal with a banged up Jordan Hill.  Meanwhile, California was getting five points and was coming off of a loss.  Consequently, the Golden Bears made sixteen three pointers, shooting 53.3% from the three point line.  They were able to get a six point road win and cover the spread as a five point underdog.
            The previous theory illustrates another point as well.  Bettors spread themselves out too much instead of focusing on certain conferences or teams.  Only following certain conferences or teams allows bettors to get an in-depth knowledge, which is critical to long-term handicapping success.  Oddsmakers have the disadvantage in college basketball and football of having to put a line out on every game that gets a point spread.  They can’t take a day off or pass on a given team.  Therefore, they do put out bad lines occasionally in college basketball and football just because of the sheer number of games that require lines.  Focusing on certain teams or conferences will allow a bettor to get more of an in-depth knowledge of teams and being better at finding discrepancies in lines.  Let’s take a look at one more trend that professional handicappers use for long-term betting success.
            This idea is most prevalent in the NBA in my opinion.  The theory is to find short-term trends that the oddsmakers and betting public haven’t caught up to.  One of the ways to determine when the value has gone away is when the media starts covering it.  This season teams like New Jersey, L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Charlotte, Minnesota, and Utah have all had small point spread streaks, win or lose, this season that bettors could have taken advantage of.  These streaks could last anywhere from two weeks to half a season.  It took oddsmakers about three months to adjust to Oklahoma City’s point spread success for example.  It takes oddsmakers and the betting public awhile to adjust to these trends because of the amount and frequency of NBA games.  An on-going trend right now is Charlotte’s recent hot streak.  I was able to win one of my strongest NBA selections this season on Charlotte as a small home favorite against Atlanta because the marketplace did not fully adjusted to the Bobcats dramatically improved play, as well as a good home court advantage.  In my opinion, the NBA can be beat by just finding these point spread streaks and figuring out which teams will be playing with the most motivation on a given night.
            The previously discussed theories are just a sample of how to have long-term point spread betting success.  It is important to have a strategy when handicapping games, as the sportsbooks start out with an advantage because of the juice charged to payouts.  Using a plan and proven theories will enable the average bettor to have consistent long-term betting success.

HOW TO BEAT THE SHARPEST OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL LINES
Evan Altemus

            If you haven’t noticed yet, college basketball lines have become very sharp, as oddsmakers have almost a full season of statistics and information to use.  This past Saturday there were 50 games that ended within 6 points or less of the given spread on the side.  That means these 50 games had point spread outcomes that were decided by just 2 possessions!  However, Saturday January 24th had just 38 games that had point spread outcomes decided by 6 points or less.  In fact, a closer look at that day shows that the variation or “mistakes” in lines were far greater than this past Saturday, February 28th.  From now until the end of March Madness, college basketball games are going to have sides that are very sharp.  However, there are a few ways to beat the lines for the rest of the regular season and conference tournament play.  Let’s take a deeper look at how to do it.
            First, in order to figure out the future, we must take a look at the past.  Let’s look at some of the easier point spread covers from this past weekend and see if a trend develops.  For the sake of argument, I’ll stick with the major conference games from this past Saturday.  In the Big 12, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State had relatively comfortable covers, as the point spreads weren’t really in doubt for most of the game.  In the Big East, St. John’s had one of the easiest covers of any major conference team this weekend, with a 21 point win at DePaul.  Indiana and Purdue had double digit point spread covers in the Big 10.  Alabama, Auburn, and Vanderbilt all had very easy point spread covers in the SEC.  The Pac 10’s only team with a comfortable cover was Stanford.  In total, there were 9 teams with strong point spread wins this past Saturday.
            Seven of the nine above listed teams were small favorites or underdogs.  Only Texas A&M and Purdue were large favorites to have comfortable point spread covers.  Purdue pulled away from Ohio State in the 2nd half, and the Buckeyes never responded with any type of rally.  Texas A&M has a strong home court advantage, and they overwhelmed Iowa State, a team that has given up on the season, in the 2nd half with a huge surge.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, and Stanford were all at home and needing a win.  They were also small favorites and facing teams of relatively similar talent level.  Essentially the difference in the game was the home court edge and added motivation.  However, Indiana, Alabama, and Auburn all had easy point spread covers as underdogs.  Indiana has continued to fight throughout the season, and Penn State didn’t bring anywhere near the intensity needed to beat the Hoosiers by double digits.  In fact, the Nittany Lions haven’t beaten any kind of quality competition by 14 points or more this season.  Mississippi had several players banged up or sick, and Alabama wanted desperately to end their SEC road losing streak.  As a result, the Tide got a blowout road win.  Meanwhile, Auburn had a tremendous shooting game against Mississippi State, as well as a more balanced attack, which led to the blowout road win.  St. John’s was also able to get a blowout win at DePaul, mainly because the Blue Demons have completely given up on the season.
            After looking at the above results, there are three key points to take away.  First, take a very close look at games with a small point spread to see if one team has some kind of decisive advantage, be it home court, motivation, or just a better overall team.  These games usually have a team which can be blown out if they don’t show up or if they face an opponent with a strong motivational advantage.  The key in these games is knowing which team will show up with more intensity.  Second, look to fade average teams which are large favorites, as long as their opponents have not completely given up on the season.  Third, fade teams that have thrown the towel in on their season.  DePaul is the perfect example of a team to fade because of a complete lack of motivation.
            Overall, knowing which team will play with more motivation is absolutely essential to conference tournament handicapping.  Teams on the bubble are going to be facing conference leaders in the next two weeks.  However, these bubble teams will desperately need a marquee win in order to make it to the field of 64.  They will also be large underdogs against teams that have their tournament bid locked up and are looking ahead to the NCAA tournament.
            The oddsmaker’s lines are going to be extremely sharp for the rest of the season.  However, there are some profitable situations to take advantage of.  Using some of the previously discussed concepts are the some of the ways to find the most value for the remainder of the college basketball season.

MARCH MADNESS BRACKET BUSTERS
Evan Altemus

            Every season so-called college basketball experts make their predictions of which lesser known teams will shock the public and make a deep tournament run.  However, there are some key components that these teams must have.  Let’s take a look at which smaller schools have the potential to wreck tournament brackets. 
            First and foremost, Cinderella teams must have excellent guard play, specifically at the point.  They also need to have a go to guy in the last few minutes that can make clutch shots.  Last season, Stephon Curry was Davidson’s clutch shooter, which allowed the Wildcats to make it to the Elite 8.  Western Kentucky also made a run to the Sweet 16 because of star guard Courtney Lee.  They only beat Drake and San Diego in the first two rounds though, but they did get a point spread cover in their tournament loss to UCLA.  However, balanced scoring between the backcourt and frontcourt can make up for the lack of one single dominating player.  George Mason exhibited that a few seasons ago on their way to the Final Four.  Second, these potential bracket busters must have won, or have been very close to winning, games against high quality competition.  These games show a team’s toughness, which is crucial when trying to beat a bigger name school.  Once again, both Davidson and Western Kentucky had some good performances against upper tier opponents in the regular season last year.  Lastly, smaller schools that make deep tournament runs almost always dominated their conference competition during the regular season.  George Mason, Davidson, and Western Kentucky all cruised through conference play on their way to the tournament.  However, the most important factor in an underdog team making a run is experience.  A starting line-up with all juniors and seniors will stick together in tough situations, especially late in the game when facing a team with better talent.  These experienced players have been through a great deal of adversity together for several years, which allows them to take down their inexperienced favored opponents.  So which teams have potential to make a surprising run this year?

SIENA – This team has the best chance to be this season’s George Mason or Davidson.  All of their starters have experience from last year’s tournament team, which upset Vanderbilt.  They have point spread covers at Pittsburgh, Kansas, and St. Joseph’s as well.  The Saints have also destroyed opponents in their conference, with a 15-1 straight up record.  This team will not be fazed by bigger name schools, as they have played several games against tough opponents over the last two seasons.

CREIGHTON – The Bluejays are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 12-2 straight up in their last 14 games, including a blowout win over George Mason just a few days ago.  Creighton is also 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games.  They have a great deal of experience with four returning starters from a season ago, and they have an outstanding go to scorer with in Booker Woodfox.  This team will be very dangerous if they make it to the tournament.

BUTLER – This team has played tough against the best competition on their schedule.  They have wins over Davidson, UAB, Xavier, Cleveland State, Northwestern, and Drake.  The Bulldogs also have a very close loss at Ohio State, but they covered the spread as a 7 point underdog.  This team has a very balanced offensive attack, but their strength is defense.  Butler is ranked 6th nationally with defensive field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot only 37.8% from the field.  However, the Bulldogs weakness is their inexperience.  However, a strong defense and solid coaching may be enough to overcome that flaw.

THE REAL MARCH MADNESS BUBBLE TEAMS
Evan Altemus

            With the year round college basketball analysis on television, the speculation about which teams are on the bubble starts even before conference play kicks off.  Numerous experts have lists of teams which need to finish strong in order to get into the big dance.  Let’s take a look at the real bubble teams.
            The following teams will arguably be battling for about 15 at-large spots after the strongest teams are selected and automatic bids are given out.  Dayton, Rhode Island, Temple, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Providence, Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, UAB, Tulsa, Houston, Illinois State, Utah, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, Arizona, USC, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Auburn, and St. Mary’s.  About half of these teams will make it into the tournament. 
We can eliminate Rhode Island, Temple, Illinois State, Tulsa, and Houston from this list.  Those teams don’t have strong non-conference wins, and they haven’t been dominant against conference opponents.  St. Mary’s will get to beat up on weaker conference opponents, so their final record will be good enough to get in without winning the WCC title.  Arizona, USC, UNLV, Dayton and Texas all have wins against strong competition and will finish the season with enough victories to get them in.  Essentially teams from the ACC, Big East, Big 12, and SEC will take up the final 10-12 spots.  With that being said, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Providence, Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, South Carolina Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Auburn will be the last teams vying for at-large bids.  However, teams like N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Auburn, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, and Providence will need very strong finishes to get an invitation.  Boston College, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee are in position to get the remaining at-large bids and are the true bubble teams.  These teams have wins against the best teams in their conference and/or a good strength of schedule ranking. 
Smaller conferences like the Missouri Valley, Conference USA, Colonial Athletic Association, and Mountain West will get less at-large bids than in the past few years.  The BCS conferences have too much parody, and as a result they will get more of the last tournament spots.  In addition, the mid-major conferences don’t have as many strong teams as in previous seasons.  Look for Boston College, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee to get the final tournament spots.

LESSER DISCUSSED TRENDS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Evan Altemus

            The college basketball season is just a few weeks away from conference tournament play.  The oddsmakers are setting stronger lines and making fewer mistakes.  However, there are still going to be excellent opportunities for the rest of the season.  Let’s take a look at some recent trends in college basketball.
Marquette – Friday night’s loss to South Florida revealed that the Golden Eagles are slightly overvalued.  They are also coming up on a brutal stretch of games.  Marquette closes the season at Georgetown, home to UCONN, at Louisville, at Pittsburgh, and at home to Syracuse.  They will be lucky to go 2-3 against those teams.
Washington/California/Arizona State – These three schools are the best teams that no one is talking about.  Washington is one of the best rebounding teams in the country.  California has a potent offense and is ranked #1 nationally in three point percentage, hitting almost 45% of their three’s.  Arizona State plays stifling defense and has one of the best players in the country in James Harden.  These three teams will make some noise in March and will present excellent point spread value.
Villanova – This team never gets mentioned in the upper tier of the Big East Conference, but they should be.  The Wildcats beat Pittsburgh at home, lost a close game at UCONN, played Marquette tough on the road, and won at Providence.  They return almost several players from last year’s tournament team, including Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham.  This team will be dangerous in March.
Northeastern/George Mason/VCU – These teams are the best teams in the Colonial Athletic Association, but it’s too bad that only one of them will probably make the tournament.  Whichever team in the big dance has to face one of these three teams will be on upset alert.  They are loaded with athleticism and good guard play, a lethal combination come tournament time.
Southeastern Conference – This conference will arguably have no one left in the NCAA tournament after the Sweet 16 and maybe even a round before that.  LSU has completely handled by Xavier at home, Tennessee lost to both Memphis and Gonzaga on their home floor, and Kentucky got easily handled by Miami at home.  These teams lack consistency and guard play which will be their downfall in a few weeks.

HOW TO BET THE SUPER BOWL NOW
Evan Altemus

            The Super Bowl is the most wagered on sporting event in the country by a landslide.  Sportsbooks not only offer selections on the side and total, but also on a wide variety of player, team, and event props.  There are a number of ways to approach wagering in this game than just on one side and/or one total.  With the side and total already being released, as well as some prop bets, it is critical to know how to start attacking these selections.
            The first thing I noticed was that the spread was released at Pittsburgh -7, right around where I thought it would be.  The sharp bettors hammered it down to -6.5 right away.  However, the line was then bet back up but appears to be holding constant at 6.5.  Essentially the sharp bettors were hammering Pittsburgh at -6.5 and Arizona at +7.  This happened because these people know that 7 points is such a critical line in football.  They put themselves in a positive expectation situation, holding tickets that could potentially give themselves a profit without creating much risk.  Almost all of the bettors who did this make a considerable income from just gambling and now how the lines will move to take advantage of such situations.  So how can you take advantage of this theory?
            The line seems to have begun settling at -6.5, but there are several books still offering -7.  The best thing to do is to take Arizona with as little juice as possible, meaning try to find the Cardinals at +7 -105 or better.  Then find Pittsburgh -6.5 with as little as juice as possible.  Another option would be to take Pittsburgh at -6.5 then buy a half point and get Arizona at +7.5.  You will have extra juice with the Cardinals, but if the Steelers win by a touchdown, then you will have a very nice pay day.  Overall, the line will probably jump between 6.5 and 7 for the next two weeks.  If you like Arizona then grab them whenever they are at +7 with as little juice as possible.  The juice probably won’t go much lower than +7 -105.  The same holds true for Pittsburgh.  If the Steelers are your choice then take them at -6.5 -105 when it becomes available.
            Another wager to take now is Arizona on the moneyline if that option is appealing.  Most bettors pound the underdog on the moneyline in the Super Bowl, much less than the favorite.  Right now, Arizona is available at around +235, while Pittsburgh is -275.  The Cardinals price will fall a considerable amount by game time, just like the New York Giants moneyline price did last season.  Arizona may fall down to just a +205-+210 underdog by next Sunday.
            Proposition wagers are also extremely popular to sharp and square bettors alike.  Try to make bets on props as soon as they get released, as sharp bettors will hammer the better ones until game time, thus reducing the payout.  Stay away from wagers like which side the coin toss will come out on, as these selections offer negative expectation situations with juice of -115 on each side.  Try to determine how the game will develop and progress, then make proposition wagers accordingly.  With the amount of these selections offered by sportsbooks, they release some very weak lines on certain props.  Savvy bettors will take advantage of these mistakes and hammer them accordingly.
            These are just a few of the ways to have a profitable Super Bowl betting experience.  Try to be creative and smart, while staying away from negative expectation situations.  Shop around and find the best lines available depending on which side/total is most appealing.

NFL PLAYOFF BAD BEATS
Evan Altemus

            The hardest part of sports wagering is dealing with losses, especially when they are right side losers.  That was the case on Saturday with my NFL card, as I ended the day with a 1-2 outcome, despite having the right plays on both games.  Let’s take a look at how my Saturday NFL selections turned out.
            My first selection of the day was the Tennessee Titans at -3.  My basic thinking was that Baltimore looked much better than they really are the previous week against an over-rated Miami Dolphin team.  In addition, Tennessee had played excellent in situations where the public doubted them, and they got their two best defensive players back from injury.  I also thought that the Ravens would come in over confident because of their blowout win the previous week.  My selection seemed to be on its way for a win, as the Titans struck first with a relatively easy touchdown drive.  They were moving the ball down the field, while Baltimore struggled offensively.  However, the Ravens were able to take advantage of a blown coverage and tied the game with a 48 yard touchdown pass in the 1st quarter.  Tennessee continued to have success moving the ball, but they proceeded to turn the ball over three times, including twice deep in Baltimore territory.  They had a 180 total yard advantage, and Kerry Collins threw for 280 yards.  Even with their mistakes, the Titans probably would have won the game if Chris Johnson played in the 2nd half.  Needless to say, the outcome was very frustrating, as my selection was a right side loser.
            Saturday’s second game featured an interesting match-up between Arizona and Carolina.  Almost every professional handicapper selected the Panthers, but I felt that the Cardinals were the right side.  Too much was being made of Arizona’s poor road performances this season, as they were blown out because of a complete lack of motivation, not because of a lack of skill set or capability.  In addition, they had already shown the ability to play with Carolina on the road.  However, I also thought that the game would feature back and forth scoring, with each team matching the other touchdown for touchdown.  As a result, my Saturday card included Arizona +10 and OVER 48.5 points.  Both selections seemed on their way to being easy winners, but Jake Delhomme could not stop turning the ball over in Arizona territory.  The Cardinals, having a double digit lead in the 4th quarter, just wanted to run the ball and use clock.  Consequently, Arizona ended up winning the game 33-13 for 46 combined points.  The outcome was disappointing considering that I just needed 15 points in the 2nd half for my total selection to win. 
            One of the biggest keys to long term sports wagering success is to not chase bad beat losses like the two listed above.  These kinds of devastating outcomes can be hard to deal with, but they are just a part of the process.  In the end, wrong side winners and right side losers balance each other out anyway.  In fact, I would much rather have several more right side losers than wrong side winners, as it means that my process is correct, which will lead to consistent profits long-term. 

NFL PLAYOFFS – HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
Evan Altemus (Speculating Sports)

            The so-called experts on television proclaimed several times that this NFL season is one of the wackiest ever.  They were amazed after each week of the regular season as favorites routinely lost outright.  In addition, they were shocked with the turnarounds that Baltimore, Miami, and Atlanta had.  They also showed amazement with the drop-offs of Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Green Bay.  However, one thing that is never spoken is the great deal of parody in the NFL and that any team can win on any given week.  Let’s take a deeper look at this concept.
            The sports media had several darlings this season.  Dallas, New York Jets and Giants, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, Arizona, and Tampa Bay were all beat down after a week of being praised by the major networks.  In fact, almost all of those losses were out at home when they were favored by a decent margin.  There are two important things to be taken from this trend.  First, the teams listed above all experienced at least one week where everyone was telling them how good they were.  Meanwhile, their opponents had to listen to comments and questions about how good the other team was.  Consequently, the underdog came out fired up with a chip on their shoulder and got a dominating outright win.  The second point to take away is that odds makers inflate the lines in these games.  These teams are bigger favorites than they should be, especially if they weren’t coming off of big wins.  We saw this trend once again last week in the 1st round of the NFL playoffs.
            Atlanta was a favorite of the media, as they finished the season well, including a road win over Minnesota.  They also had a chance to get a 1st round bye, but Carolina kicked a last second field goal to beat New Orleans and win the NFC South.  Meanwhile, Arizona had a disastrous end to the season.  They lost four out of their last six games, including blowout losses to Philadelphia, Minnesota, and New England.  As a result, Atlanta ended up as the favorite, despite being the road team.  If these two teams would have played earlier in the season, Arizona would have been at least a three point favorite at home.  The Cardinals used the lack of attention and underdog role to get a big home win over their more publicized opponent.  Once again, the media was almost baffled as to how Arizona could beat an Atlanta team that looked so good to end the season.
            This weekend features four excellent playoff match-ups, as well as some teams that have been getting a great deal of praise this week.  Baltimore and Philadelphia had good wins last week and got the most attention from the highlight shows.  However, Miami had a great deal of success moving the ball on them in the 2nd half but couldn’t capitalize.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia used an interception return for a touchdown, as well as a long touchdown pass to get the bulk of their points.  Basically, both the Eagles and Ravens had weaknesses despite their wins last weekend.
            As the NFL playoffs progress, always consider which team is getting too much praise from the media, as these teams are usually overvalued and don’t bring the same intensity as their underdog opponents.

NBC’s Sunday Night Game of the Week:  Broncos at Chargers

Evan Altemus

The NFL game that I want to watch the most this week is the AFC West championship game between Denver and San Diego.  Ed Hochuli may once again be able to show his face in the city of San Diego if the Chargers pull out the win.  He made the worst mistake of all officials this season back in the earlier match-up between these two teams which cost San Diego the game.  I have heard several different opinions on this game, as oddsmakers put out an interesting line of San Diego -9.  Before the line came out, I was thinking Chargers all the way.  However, the line of 9 made that play come to a screeching halt.  Now that Sunday is only two days away, let's look at this game a little further.
Back in the week two match-up, Denver jumped out to a 21-3 lead in the 2nd quarter and seemed on their way to a blowout.  The Chargers closed the deficit to 2 touchdowns by halftime, but it still looked like a win was unlikely as their defense was playing horribly.  However, San Diego absolutely dominated the 2nd half, scoring 21 unanswered points, and there could have been more.  Denver only mustered one 2nd half score, but it was on the drive of the infamous Hochuli botched call.  Something to take away from the 2nd half was that the Broncos could only get 1 touchdown when the Chargers defense was playing horribly and in their first game without Shawne Merriman.  There is a reason why this spread is so high.  San Diego plays well at home in big games, despite having only a 4-3 record at their stadium.  They have ALL of the momentum heading into this game after reeling off three straight wins, while Denver has lost three out of their last five games, including a devastating loss last week at home.  Several of the Bronco players have to be thinking things would be different if only they could have finished last week's 4th quarter drive to end the game.  San Diego's defense really hasn't played much better since firing Ted Cottrell, just look at the numbers.  However, I feel that the Chargers defense will play very motivated and energized because of the situation, making them play much better than they are.  I compare this situation to a golf tournament where a player has a big lead in the final holes only to stumble and bogey the last hole, forcing a playoff.  The player who rallied to get into the playoff ALWAYS beats the guy who stumbled down the stretch.  This line is high but if I was forced to make a play then it would be on San Diego or taken down to -3 in a 6 point teaser.  The teaser is probably the best option.

WHICH NFL COACHES SHOULD BE FIRED OR RETAINED

Evan Altemus

The first few weeks of the NFL season saw three head coaches get the ax.  San Francisco fired Mike Nolan, St. Louis fired Scott Linehan, and Oakland had the firing with the most publicity, as Lane Kiffin got canned.  Surprisingly, no other head coaches got fired in the latter parts of this season, but that trend is going to change after this Sunday.  Let's review who should and shouldn't get the ax at the end of this season.

Romeo Crennel (Cleveland) - His team has under achieved this season, but they did have to play a much tougher schedule from a year ago.  However, there are several players who have publicly said that the Browns have quit at various points this season.  There is no team unity and it appears that Crennel has lost control of the players.  Now there are confirmed reports that Brady Quinn was punched in the face in a dispute with Shaun Smith.  Crennel will probably get fired within a week after the season ends.

Rod Marinelli (Detroit) - This one is obvious, but Marinelli is a class act, especially with the way he handled a reporter's attack on his family following the loss to the Saints.
Wade Phillips (Dallas) - Phillips team has vastly underperformed this season.  He is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, but he isn't the type of leader or motivator that a team like the Cowboys needs.  Look for a change if they don't make it to the post season and win at least two games in the playoffs.

Herm Edwards (Kansas City) - Edwards has done a very good job with an extremely young team.  Don't much was expected of the Chiefs entering this season, but they have been competitive in almost every game recently.  Kansas City has several devastating losses this season, following some late game collapses.  However, his team has fought hard in every game and appears to now have a good young quarterback.  Edwards should definitely be retained by whoever the new general manager is.

Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati) - The Bengals have dealt with several injuries this season, most notably to starting quarterback Carson Palmer.  However, Cincinnati has been very competitive in almost every game this season, and they have played the best teams very tough, evident by their 4-0 against the spread record against the NFC East.  Lewis has also done a good job in controlling Chad Johnson.  Marvin Lewis should not be fired, giving the circumstances his team has had to deal with.

Andy Reid (Philadelphia) - The Eagles are so close to being a Super Bowl team.  They would take a huge step backwards if they decide to get rid of Reid and starting quarterback Donovan McNabb.  Philadelphia only needs to add a power running back and a big play wide receiver.  With those additions, they would arguably be the best team in the league, given how strong the defense is.  However, Eagles management might give in to the ridiculous sports talk radio and media comments that Reid should be fired.  If Philadelphia wants to have a winning season next year, then they should bring him back.

Here are a few more coaches who should retain their jobs at the end of the season, despite media scrutiny:  Mike McCarthy, Jack Del Rio, Dick Jauron, Brad Childress, and Mike Shanahan.  Norv Turner's future may be determined by what San Diego does on Sunday and in the playoffs.

DECEMBER 21ST FREE NFL 2 TEAM 6 POINT TEASER

Evan Altemus (Speculating Sports)

Six point two team teasers in the NFL have been excellent plays over the last few years.  The reason is that pro football lines are so accurate; therefore the bettor has a tremendous advantage getting to alter the line six to seven points in either direction.   Las Vegas NFL lines makers are the sharpest of any sport.  Consequently they are the highest paid, and there is tremendous pressure on them by clients to put out accurate spreads that balance the action.  With all of that being said, here is a FREE two team six point teaser for this weekend in the NFL. 

SELECTIONS:  HOUSTON TEXANS -1 AND NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -1.5
Profile:  Houston is available at -7 almost everywhere so tease them down to -1.  The Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.  Matt Schaub has played two excellent games since returning from injury, and the combination of Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson are one of most explosive running back/wide receiver duos in the league.  Houston’s defense though has been the key to their turnaround.  The Texans young pass rushers are finally getting pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run.  Oakland is a complete mess, and even one of their assistant coaches have already bailed to join Lane Kiffin in Tennessee.  Oakland’s defense wasn’t able to slow down New England last week, so they won’t have much success stopping Houston either. 
            New England has a great situational advantage over Arizona this weekend.  The Cardinals are beginning to rest their players for the playoffs.  At least five starters aren’t even making the trip to the Northeast.  In addition, as many as six other starters might not even play.  This game is a must win for the Patriots in order to stay in the playoff race.  Arizona has been awful in road games to the eastern part of the U.S., and that trend will continue in this game.  The sportsbooks are very afraid of a teaser in this game, which is why they are beginning to move the line from -7.5 to -9.  Whenever books move the line off of 7.5 immediately to 9, it means that they are taking heavy teaser action from sharp bettors. 

DECEMBER’S NBA NEWS AND NOTES
Evan Altemus

            Staying current on the latest news and streaks is crucial to handicapping success in the NBA.  Pro basketball is arguably the hardest professional sport to handicap, but there are certain situations that can lead to consistent profit.  Let’s take a look at some of the latest information from the “Association”.
Cleveland – This team is absolutely the real deal and a serious threat for an NBA title.  They are the second best team in the league behind Boston.  Cleveland has a very efficient offense and ball movement.  In fact, they are the best passing team in the NBA.  Their defense is also stifling.  Look to back the Cavaliers at home as a small favorite against the better teams in the league.  However, they will be overvalued for the rest of the season on the road against weaker competition. 
Milwaukee – The Bucks continue to be a point spread monster, right behind Cleveland.  They are able to keep games close against better competition in losing efforts, as well as blowing out weaker opponents at home as a small favorite.  This team will continue to improve throughout the season behind coach Scott Skiles, as he improves the Bucks defensive performance through the next few months.
Philadelphia – Elton Brand will be out a month with a shoulder injury.  As a result, the 76ers are going to have more favorable lines, as the public perceives Brand’s injury as a big loss.  However, they played much better last season without him in the line-up, as they were able to play a faster paced style of basketball.  I look for them to start streaking and as a result being an excellent point spread team over the next month.
Detroit – The Pistons got the worst half of the deal in their trade for Allen Iverson.  The Pistons performance has really fallen off since Iverson was added to the line-up.  Oddsmakers will continue to price Detroit much higher than they should be, as it will take some time for people to view them as a lesser team.  Look to fade the Pistons in almost every match-up against the better teams in the league.
Orlando – This team is one of the better units in the league and third overall in the Eastern Conference.  Boston and Cleveland have gotten all of the publicity, but the Magic have already defeated Utah, Portland, and Dallas on the road, as well as beating San Antonio at home.  No one has noticed that they have started out 20-6 straight up, and as a result they are undervalued against the better teams in the league.
Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers have been one of the worst point spread teams over the last few weeks.  They are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games, despite winning 7 of their last 10 games outright.  Because of Los Angeles’ playoff run and hot start this season, bookmakers were forced to inflate their lines.  However, the Lakers defense has really fallen off lately, allowing much lesser teams to keep games close.  Look for fade them on the road against the very best teams in the league.
Los Angeles Clippers – This team started off the season horribly, as they dealt with injury and a completely new line-up.  They have quietly won 5 out of their last 7 games both straight up and against the spread.  Baron Davis is one of the best point guards in the league, and the Clippers have excellent overall athleticism.  This team is going to be a great point spread team over the next month.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL SEASON QUICK HITTERS
Evan Altemus

            Now that the bowl match-ups have been released, speculation has already started about which teams are poised for big wins while others may be destined for blowouts.  It is absolutely essential to know the situations that every bowl team is in before handicapping these games further.  Predicting college bowl games is less about the x’s and o’s of the match-ups and more about the mind-set and other intangibles.  Let’s take a look at which teams to back or go against.

Fresno State – This team had BCS bowl aspirations at the start of the season, but they finished the season with a disappointing 7-5 record.  The Bulldogs are now left to play in the New Mexico Bowl, a far cry from where this program expected to be at this point.

Boise State – The Broncos were hoping for an at-large BCS berth with their undefeated record.  However, Utah, playing in a better overall non-BCS conference, took the at-large bid away from Boise State.  Now the Broncos are left to play in the Poinsettia Bowl against one of the best non-BCS conference teams in the country in TCU.  If Boise State doesn’t bring maximum effort, then TCU will demolish them.

Miami – This very young team has to travel the across the country and play Cal in what is basically a home game for the Golden Bears.  The Emerald Bowl is being played in San Francisco’s AT&T Park, just down the road from Berkley.  Miami also finished the season with two losses to fall down in the ACC standings.

N.C. State/Rutgers – It is a big disappointment to see these two teams facing each other.  Both groups are the playing their best football of the season and would have been excellent selections against other teams.  However, this game will be a match-up of two very improved offenses.

Missouri – The Tigers have lost all three big primetime games that they have been in this season.  They had national title hopes entering the year but are now left to the Alamo Bowl against Northwestern.  Missouri will have a hard time getting motivated for this match-up, especially after a blowout loss to Oklahoma to end the regular season.

Nevada – This team has improved throughout the season.  Three of their losses were to Missouri, Texas Tech, and Boise State, so they are much better than their record indicates.  They also get to play a bowl game just up the road from their campus in Boise.

LSU – There was talk of the Tigers being national title contenders entering this year.  They started out playing well, until they faced better competition.  They lacked a quality quarterback, and their offense couldn’t get going.  In addition, they suffered a horrible loss to Arkansas to close out the season.

Alabama – They were just a few plays away from the playing in the national title game, but the Crimson Tide couldn’t make the plays necessary to beat Florida.  Alabama still gets to play in a BCS Bowl, but it is a far cry from the match-up against Oklahoma that they were hoping for.  Now they have to face a tricky Utah team that will be very hungry.

Ball State – The Cardinals were talking about bowl possibilities and the potential for getting snubbed from a bigger bowl before the MAC Championship.  As a result, they weren’t focused against Buffalo and got hammered.  Now they are put in the GMAC Bowl against a Tulsa team with one of the best offenses in the country.  It may be hard for Ball State to get up for this game after not being able to finish undefeated.

Ohio State – This team wants badly to prove that they are able to play with other elite teams in the country.  They have been embarrassed by USC, LSU, and Florida over the last few seasons on a national stage.  The Buckeyes have another chance to prove how good they are, but this time they get to face a team that they match-up more favorably against.  Ohio State will come to play, but will they have the offense needed to keep it close or pull out the win?

NBA EARLY SEASON HANDICAPPING
Evan Altemus

            The NBA is arguably the hardest league to handicap successfully out of all of the professional leagues.  It is not uncommon to see games where a favorite is covering by a wide margin after three quarters, only to give it all back in the fourth quarter and barely win.  There are a handful of these games each week where a bettor makes the correct call to pick the favorite but loses their bet anyway.  Conversely, there are a few games each week where the underdog is the correct choice, yet they don’t maintain focus in the 4th quarter.  As a result, the favorite is able to significantly outscore them because they gave up.  So given all of these tough beats, how is it possible to beat the NBA on a consistent basis?
            One of the first things to do when approaching a daily NBA card is to eliminate most of the games with double digit spreads.  For example, Oklahoma City is going to be a double digit underdog on the road against better competition until they improve.  If teams like Boston, Detroit, Utah, Houston, and the Los Angeles Lakers show up against the Thunder, then they would easily cover the large point spreads.  However, it is impossible to predict how hard they will play against Oklahoma City, or how many minutes the starters will get in the 2nd half.  The only time a double digit underdog is worth looking at is if that team has showed sustained progress which has gone unnoticed by the betting public.  This concept is an example of the second thing to look for in an NBA card.
            One of the most successful NBA handicapping strategies is to find teams which are riding point spread winning or losing streaks.  These are a number of reasons for a change in these team’s performances.  They could include injuries, line-up changes, trades, development of young players, scheduling, etc.  One of the most recent examples of this concept is the San Antonio Spurs.  Everyone assumed that they would collapse with both Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker out due to injury.  Oddsmakers significantly reduced the price of the Spurs as a result.  Coach Greg Popovich had his team play a slow down half-court offense and very tough defense, which has resulted in his team vastly outperforming expectations.  San Antonio has gone 6-2 against the spread since Parker’s injury, and they still have point spread value until oddsmakers fully adjust.  Noticing small winning/losing point spread streaks is essential to successful NBA handicapping.
            Another thing to look for when approaching a daily NBA card is the games featuring point spreads of 4 points or less, particularly if they feature two of the better teams in the league.  Looking at games with small point spreads mean that all that is needed to win a wager is selecting the winning team.  Occasionally these games do come down to the wire, but they also are easier to handicap because one side is much more obvious than games with larger point spreads.  Games with two good teams are excellent to handicap because both teams will bring maximum effort.  A quality team with a strong home court advantage is going to want to blowout their opponent much more than the worst teams in the league.  Utah was an excellent example of this concept last season, as they hammered several top teams by margin at home.  Focusing on games with small spreads, specifically when they feature two good opponents is a great long term NBA handicapping strategy.
            Using these three handicapping theories when analyzing a daily NBA card will lead to long-term success.  The NBA is the hardest professional sport to handicap, so it is essential to use solid fundamentals and strategies.

WEEK 14 COLLEGE FOOTBALL QUICK HITTERS
Speculating Sports - Evan Altemus

            As we approach the last two weeks of college football before bowl games begin, it is critical to know the situation and mind set of each team.  The first step of handicapping each game this week must start with figuring out what the remaining games mean to each team.  Some schools have already secured a bowl spot and can’t improve their conference, while other teams are still fighting for a bowl bid.  Let’s take a look at which teams have the most on the line this week.

Oregon State – A win against Oregon in their annual in-state rivalry would mean a Rose Bowl appearance against Penn State.  The Beavers showed resiliency in their come back win against Arizona, so they will arguably play a good game against the Ducks.
Texas/Oklahoma – The team finishing the season with the highest BCS standing will play Missouri in the Big 12 championship game.  Oklahoma was able to vault Texas in both the USA Today and AP Top 25 polls because of a blowout win over Texas Tech.  Look for both teams to run up the scores on their opponents this week if given the opportunity, as they desperately need style points before next week’s BCS poll is released.
Clemson – Interim coach Dabo Sweeney has turned things around since replacing Tommy Bowden.  The Tigers have won three out of their last four ACC games, and they need a win against in-state rival South Carolina to secure a bowl.  Clemson will play like a desperate team this week.  Sweeney is still auditioning for a head coaching position, so he will have his team ready against the Gamecocks.
Washington State – The Cougars have been the worst team in college football by far this season, but Washington gave them the game in the Apple Cup last week.  The Cougars are likely to be very over-confident this week in their road game at Hawaii.  Look for a very poor effort against a Warriors team that needs a win to secure a bowl spot.
Tennessee – This team finally showed a focused effort in a game this season, as they soundly defeated Vanderbilt last week.  Their game this week against Kentucky will be the last for head coach Phillip Fulmer.  The Volunteer players have a great deal of respect for Fulmer, so I expect them to give an all out effort against a team that they can push around.  Tennessee still has the athletes capable of beating mediocre SEC competition and now they have the confidence after last week.
Virginia Tech/ Virginia – These two teams play each other this weekend, and they both have a great deal to play for.  Virginia Tech will win the Coastal Division of the ACC if they defeat Virginia.  However, Virginia needs a win to finish 6-6 and be eligible for a bowl game.  The Hokies are large favorites, but they might not have the offense capable of winning this game by a spread of more than a touchdown.
N.C. State – After going through a great deal of adversity this season, the Wolfpack will qualify for a bowl game with a win against Miami.  They have to overcome the emotions of a big win last week against North Carolina, but N.C. State does have a great deal to play for this week.  Oddsmakers may have priced that into this game though, as they are only a one point underdog. 
           
Knowing what each team has to play for is essential to handicapping this week’s college football games.  The teams listed above are just a small sample of schools that still have a great deal on the line this week.  However, this article should give bettors an idea of what to look for this week.

BEST AND WORST OF THE NFL

Speculating Sports - Evan Altemus

            I typically don’t think power rankings are a very useful handicapping tool, as almost every team is vulnerable in certain situations.  However, I think that the average bettor should be aware of which teams are the best and worst in the league.  The best teams are capable of beating any team in the league, especially as an underdog.  New York is coming off of two straight outright underdog wins, Pittsburgh has won several games this season as an underdog, and Tennessee is still undefeated.  The worst teams in the NFL can be split up into two categories:  point spread monsters and point spread disasters.  Some of the worst teams should be avoided, as they have the capability to get blown out in any game.

1.  New York Giants – This spot was very close between the Giants and Titans.  However, New York has the edge in experience as well as having played a tougher schedule.  They know what it takes to win tough games, evident once again by their recent road win at Philadelphia.  They have the best running game in the NFL, a confident quarterback, and an excellent defense.  The Giants have proven they are worth of this ranking with their recent wins over the Eagles and Steelers.

2.  Tennessee – The Titans are still undefeated, but the true test of this team will be how they handle their first loss of the season.  It is doubtful that they will finish the regular season 16-0, so how will this team respond when faced with adversity?  They have everything it takes to make a Super Bowl run though.  Kerry Collins has proven that he is capable of putting the team on his back as well.

3.  Pittsburgh – This team has everything it takes to make a Super Bowl run, but they just have to put it all together and stay healthy.  The Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league, both against the run and the pass.  Ben Roethlisberger must eliminate his mistakes in order for Pittsburgh to make a run.  However, Willie Parker will be back this week, and his return should help Big Ben.  Pittsburgh has a dominant defense and an excellent home field advantage, which will make them tough to beat in the playoffs. 

4.  Philadelphia/Indianapolis/Carolina – I am combining these teams under one list because I feel that they are all dark horse Super Bowl contenders that not many people are talking about.  Indianapolis is getting healthy, and Peyton Manning has beaten the best defenses in the league this season.  He single handedly led his team to wins over Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore.  The defense also has Bob Sanders back from injury.  Philadelphia combines a physical defense with a high scoring offense.  Donovan McNabb is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and Desean Jackson gives the Eagles a deep threat capability.  Carolina has one of the best defenses in the league, as well as a power running attack.  Steve Smith is capable of taking any pass the distance.  They will be a dangerous playoff team for any opponent in the NFC.

24.  Cleveland – This team’s talent level is much higher than their record and performance so far this season.  They showed their potential in their Monday Night Football win over the Giants, giving New York their only loss of the season.  However, they have blown two straight 4th quarter leads because of a lack of focus.  This team lacks focus and toughness, making them a risky wager as a favorite.

25.  Houston – This team is more than capable of beating any team in the league.  However, they find several different ways to lose games.  The Texans have also had to deal with a hurricane this season.  Houston should be an excellent point spread team for the rest of the season, especially as a large underdog.

26.  Seattle – They haven’t been able to travel east and win on the road, even with Matt Hasselbeck.  The Seahawks are in a transition period between coaches.  This season is the last for Mike Holmgren, while Jim Mora waits to take over while on the staff.  Seattle has also been plagued with injuries.  Look for them to have some point spread value in the 2nd half of the season.

27.  San Francisco – The 49ers are still a work in progress under coach Mike Singletary.  They don’t have the personnel to successfully run Mike Martz’s pass happy offense.  Their defense has given up 24 points or more to almost every team they have faced.  In addition, mistakes still plague this team, evident by their late 4th quarter drive that stalled out against Arizona on Monday night.

28.  Kansas City – The Chiefs are showing improvement, but they still aren’t capable of consistently winning games.  Kansas City will be an excellent point spread team if Tyler Thigpen continues his good play.  Larry Johnson’s return should help this week.  The defense is still a mess though and the Achilles heel of the team.  Quarterbacks have been able to have field days on the horrendous secondary.  Even Jeff Garcia threw for over 300 yards against the Chiefs.

29.  Cincinnati – The running game is one of the worst in the league, putting the offense squarely on the shoulders of inexperienced quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The defense has been spotty as well this season.  Marvin Lewis will more than likely be out of a job after this season unless something dramatically turns around.  Carson Palmer returning from his elbow injury is this team’s only hope.

30.  Oakland – Al Davis has taken the offensive play calling duties away from coordinator Greg Knapp.  Enough said.  Davis has completely ruined this team, as he has consistently destroyed any progress this team has made over the years.  The offense lacks playmakers and a quality quarterback.  The defense has played well in spots this season, but they can’t overcome a horrible offense.

31.  St. Louis – Anytime you are down 40-0 at halftime to an average opponent, you deserve to be listed this low.  Quarterback Marc Bulger has played awful lately, especially without Stephen Jackson in the line-up.  The Rams offensive line has been a huge problem as well.  Their defense has also played very poorly, giving up 23 points or more in 6 out of 9 games this season.

32.  Detroit – The Lions are absolutely horrible.  When their opponents show up even semi-motivated it usually leads to a blowout.  Jacksonville absolutely owned them last week, and some Jaguars players were supposedly joking around about how bad this team is.  Their running game is non-existent, and their defense is even worse.  This team has a serious chance of ending the season winless.  Their remaining schedule has all quality teams.  Their opponents for the rest of the season include Carolina, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Green Bay.  Can you say 0-16?

WEEK 12 BCS CHAMPIONSHIP SCENARIOS - Evan Altemus

            Several strange scenarios still exist in the BCS because of the amount of teams still in contention.  Penn State’s loss limits some of the possible scenarios, but there are still several situations that could leave teams complaining.  Let’s examine the remaining scenarios in the BCS.
            One of the lesser covered potential situations is in the Big 12 South.  Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech are all in that division.  The winner of the South gets the invite to the Big 12 Championship game in December.  However, there is a possible scenario that could have a dramatic effect on which teams play in the BCS title game.  Texas Tech leads the division, but Texas and Oklahoma only have one loss.  The Red Raiders have a bye this week, with their toughest game of the season in two weeks, a road contest at Oklahoma.  Texas Tech was able to jump out to an early lead over Texas, as well as having several bounces go their way.  However, they may not be so lucky against Oklahoma.  If they lose that game, then the Big 12 may have to use the 5th tiebreaker to decide who wins the South.  If Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech all end the season with one loss, then more than likely the division winner will be determined by which team has the best BCS ranking after the regular season.  In the latest BCS rankings, Texas Tech is 2nd, Texas is 3rd, and Oklahoma is 5th.  If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, then Texas will probably jump them.  However, would Oklahoma’s win over Tech give them enough strength of schedule points to jump Texas in the computers?  The answer could be yes, as the Sooners still have to face Oklahoma State.  Wins over those two teams will dramatically improve their computer rankings, and if the victories are convincing, then pollsters might put them ahead of both Texas and Florida.  Overall, Texas Tech must win out to play in the National Championship game, as they won’t have a high enough computer ranking with a loss to Oklahoma.  The Sooners still have time to make up ground on Texas, but the Longhorns have the best chance at winning the Big 12 South if Texas Tech loses.  The winner of the Big 12 South will have to face Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game.  The Tigers would have a chance to win that game, but they have yet to step up against an upper tier opponent.  Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State have all beaten Missouri in the past two seasons, but they would still have a shot at the win.  Let’s look at another BCS situation. 
            Alabama escaped LSU with a narrow win and their #1 ranking in tact.  They have been less than dominant this season but have managed to stay undefeated.  The Tide must still get past their in-state rival Auburn at the end of the season, but they are basically guaranteed to meet Florida in the SEC Championship game.  The winner of that game is more than likely going to receive a spot in the BCS Championship game, provided both teams take care of business between now and then.  Florida faces tricky games to finish out the season though.  This week the Gators have to face South Carolina, as well as a road game at Florida State to finish out the season.  There is a strong chance that either Alabama or Florida will face a Big 12 South opponent in the BCS Championship game.
            USC continues to be the odd team out in the chase for a spot in the title game.  They still sit at 6th in the BCS rankings and will probably not move up dramatically unless several teams above them lose.  The Trojans won’t be able to gain ground because of their weak remaining strength of schedule.  Their remaining opponents include UCLA, Notre Dame, and Stanford, hardly top 15 opponents.  Their only hope is that Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, as well as either Florida or Alabama losing in the regular season, then that team beating the other in the SEC Championship game. 
          Overall the BCS Championship picture is starting to look more certain.  Regardless of the outcome, several teams will arguably complain about being left out.  Look for either Alabama or Florida to face Texas, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma in the title game.

HOW TO ATTACK A COLLEGE FOOTBALL CARD

Evan Altemus (Speculating Sports)

        
            Each Saturday there are over 40 college football games available to wager on.  With side, total, and money line selections, there are over 120 wagers offered by sportsbooks.  Many people get overwhelmed and just pick games that are most talked about by the television networks.  Some other popular methods include betting on the local team or picking the winner in the primetime game on television.  However, these methods do not typically lead to long term betting success, and they limit potential opportunities.  I am going to discuss some of the ways that I like to dissect the weekend college football card.
            First, my favorite method is to look at the top 25 rankings and make a list of every possible team that could get upset.  The AP and Coaches Top 25 rankings are far from the best 25 teams in the country.  These polls are a joke, which is why ranked teams are routinely upset.  Reporters know little to nothing about football, and some coaches have their graduate assistants fill out the rankings.  Other coaches have hidden agendas when filling out their rankings, or they don’t care and spend less than 5 minutes on the poll.  Another reason why this method is profitable is because many of these teams are average or over inflated.  They might have gone through an easy stretch of games, played a cluster of weak opponents, etc.  Now these ranked teams have become the hunted, facing teams hungry to upset the more publicized team. Last weekend, there were several ranked teams that lost outright.  Fresno State, Connecticut, Auburn, Wisconsin, and Oregon all lost outright.  In addition, Alabama and Kansas failed to cover against unranked opponents, but they were able to narrowly avoid the upset.
            Another way to approach a card is to make a list of every home underdog and decide which teams are most capable of winning outright.  Home teams in college football have a tremendous advantage, especially if they don’t even have to win the game outright to cash your card.  There are a number of things that a team must have in order for a team to win on the road and cover the spread as a favorite.  Strong quarterback play, a disciplined team, good coaching, and a solid defense are the things that a road favorite must have if they have a chance to cover.  Most teams in college football don’t have all of those pieces.  Boston College, Kansas, Maryland, and Auburn all failed to cover on the road as favorites.  They all lack several of the key pieces to cover on the road as a favorite.  Two out of the four teams even lost outright.  Meanwhile, Texas, Penn State, and Oklahoma were all able to cover as road favorites because they are much stronger overall teams. 
            These examples are just two of the ways to approach a Saturday college football card, but these two methods will lead to profitable opportunities each week and all season long.  The bottom line is don’t become overwhelmed with the number of games being offered.  Use these two simple ways to break down the card and find excellent opportunities.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL EARLY SEASON HANDICAPPING KEYS
Evan Altemus (Speculating Sports)
            There are many things to take notice from the first night in college football yesterday.  I can confidently say that handicapping early season college football is much different from the end of the season.  In order to be successful at picking winning selections, you must be aware of what things to look for.  I will discuss the process that use to handicap these early season games.
            The first thing that I look for is continuity, by that I mean what coaches, players, and systems are returning.  Teams that have coaching changes never do that well at the start of season, and sometimes it takes a full season or two for progress to be made, depending on how bad of a state the program was in. 
The next thing I look at is what players do teams have returning.  However, it’s not enough to say that one team will be better than another just because they have more starters coming back.  The key positions to look at are the quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, shut down cornerbacks, and any star playmakers.  Running backs, wide receivers, and safeties don’t matter as much.  Returning playmakers such as Percy Harvin for Florida and Jeremy Maclin for Missouri make such a big difference, as opposing team’s defenses have to game plan just for those individual players instead of the whole offense. 
Offensive and defensive lines don’t get many headlines, but they are the back bone of a football team.  West Virginia’s beat down of Oklahoma last year was mainly because of their offensive line, opening huge holes.  Any running back can look good behind a quality O-line.  Meanwhile, LSU was able to dominate Ohio State in the National Championship because of a dominating defensive line.  If the D-line is constantly getting pressure, then the quarterback is much more likely to fumble or throw interceptions.  If the running game can’t get going, then a defense can keep more guys back in the secondary as well.  West Virginia, Ohio State, Alabama, Tennessee, and Oklahoma look to have the best offensive lines in the country.  Meanwhile, the best defensive lines belong to Oklahoma, Penn State, LSU, and Georgia. 
Coaches that come in with vastly different systems than their predecessor also have some growing pains.  Obvious teams that come to mind are Rich Rodriguez of Michigan, Paul Johnson of Georgia Tech, and Bo Pelini of Nebraska.
            Many of these early season games feature non-conference match-ups.  Let’s look at this weekend’s game between Florida Atlantic and Texas, with Texas being a 24 point favorite.  This game is a match-up between teams from the Big 12 Conference and the Sun Belt Conference.  There is a HUGE disparity between the overall quality of recruits these two teams get.  Florida Atlantic however is expected by many to be an up-and-coming team, crushing Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl last year as well as returning 17 starters.  However, the Owls might be an up and coming mid-major team but that doesn’t mean they have the athletes capable of hanging with Texas; because look at how they performed against BCS schools last season.  They lost 42-6 at Oklahoma State, lost 45-17 to Kentucky, lost 35-23 to South Florida, lost 59-20 to Florida.  They failed to cover in every game except South Florida.  However, before you jump on the Texas bandwagon, look at how they performed against lesser opponents last season.  They had very close games to Arkansas State and at UCF.  So this game will come down to if Texas shows up or not, which is impossible to confidently decide which team will cover the spread.
            One final thing I look at with these opponents is the past history that each conference has against other non-conference foes.  For example, the Big 10 Conference has had a lot of problems against other BCS conferences, especially the SEC.  Meanwhile, the SEC has played very well against BCS conferences.  Overall this season the SEC and Big 12 Conference looks to be by far the best conferences.  The Big East might be the third best conference this season with South Florida, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and West Virginia all looking to have strong seasons.  Meanwhile, the Big 10 Conference and the ACC are the worst BCS conferences coming into this season. 
            These are some of the things I look for when handicapping early season college football games.  Handicapping these games requires a slightly different approach, as there is no preseason which makes things more of a guessing game.  You should have success handicapping the early season games though using some of these approaches and ideas.

NFL SEASON TEAM WIN TOTALS

Evan Altemus (Speculating Sports)

            This article is going to discuss the best NFL season team win total wagers available.  For the reader’s reference, I am using the win totals posted at Oddsmaker.com.  The first thing I looked at was last season’s record and then compared the strength of schedule to this year’s strength of schedule.  Look at their schedule of last season.  They feasted on Kansas City, Detroit, Oakland, St. Louis, and teams with down years such as Philadelphia and Carolina.  Overall the NFC East and AFC South are the best in football with huge advantages over their opponents out of conference this season.  The second piece of information I looked at was off season acquisitions and free agent losses/retirements.  Continuity is one of the last things examined, but it is the most important for two reasons.  Was the group of players coming back this season productive or the reason for a poor season?  Also, is there expected improvement or decline of those players/coaches coming back? 

GREEN BAY PACKERS (UNDER 8.5) – Green Bay played one of the easiest schedules last year, parlaying it into a 13-3 record and a playoff berth.  However, the loss of Brett Favre really isn’t a big deal, as the Packers run a West Coast offense with short yardage passes.  Aaron Rogers is a capable quarterback in the system, but he does not have the arm strength to stretch the field.  He has also played very well in the preseason, so this selection has very little to do with the loss of Brett Favre.  This selection has EVERYTHING to do with their strength of schedule this season.  They have one of the toughest schedules in the league this season.  They have to face Dallas, at Tampa Bay, at Seattle, Indianapolis, at Tennessee, at New Orleans, Houston, at Jacksonville, as well as their divisional opponents.  They have a real capability of going 6-10, 7-9, or 8-8.  Another problem is that this team is young, and if the season starts going poorly, then they lack the veteran presence to keep the team from tanking.  Their road schedule is very brutal, as well as their non-conference schedule.  Look for this team to struggle throughout the season.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (OVER 8.5) – Donovan McNabb returns this season, another season removed from the reconstructive knee surgery of 2006.  That surgery takes over a year to fully return from, which makes sense why McNabb had a rough first half of the 2007 season.  However, he began to look very good at the end of last season, and he looked outstanding in the preseason, torching every 1st team defense he faced.  Brian Westbrook also comes back healthy and ready to go.  Westbrook and McNabb are the cornerstones of the Eagles offense, including a strong offensive line.  Philadelphia looks to be very strong on defense, especially with acquisition of Assante Samuel from New England.  Samuel and Lito Shepard are going to be the shut down corners that Jim Johnson’s blitz happy defense desperately need.  Look for the Eagles to be a some what of a surprise team, as they will get easy non-conference wins against the AFC North and some weaker NFC divisional opponents.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (OVER 10.5) – San Diego is my selection as winner of the AFC this season.  They have strengths and experience at almost every position.  Philip Rivers has another year of experience, as well as returning all of the talent around him.  Chris Chambers was an excellent addition to the receiving group last season, and Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles are playmakers on offense.  They have a very easy road schedule this season consisting of Denver, Oakland, Miami, Buffalo, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay.  I expect them to end with a 5-3 record on the road, with losses possibly coming to Pittsburgh, Denver, and Kansas City in December.  The Chargers have been dominant at home over the past few seasons both outright and against the spread.  Look for them to finish the season with 12 wins. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS (UNDER 8) – Cleveland’s success last season was mainly because of a very easy schedule.  Their schedule is brutal this season, as they have to face the AFC South and the NFC East.  They simply don’t have the physical presence to the offensive or defensive lines to play with these teams.  Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Dallas, and New York are all much more physical than the Browns.  I look for them to be 1-6 against those teams and finish with a .500 record against divisional opponents.  Cleveland will be one of the bottom tier teams in the AFC by the end of the season, and I expect Derek Anderson to struggle behind a horrible offensive line.

TENNESSEE TITANS (UNDER 8) – Vince Young has looked awful in the preseason, as the Titans continue to try and make him into a traditional quarterback.  The Titans return one of the better defenses in the league, but their offense is so bad that it won’t matter.  They are in the first or second toughest division in football.  The AFC South is stacked with Houston, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis.  They simply don’t have the offensive talent to keep up with those teams.  Minnesota, Green Bay, and Detroit on the road will all pose problems for the Titans.  Look for Tennessee to finish 6-10.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (UNDER 7.5) – Washington looks to have a long season.  They are implementing a new offense with a new offensive coordinator, as well as a new defensive coordinator.  This season will also be Jim Zorn’s first as a head coach.  First year coaches never have much success, and his season will be no different.  The Redskins have a lot of problems on their defensive line and line backing group.  The strength of this team is the secondary, but they are not even in the top three of the NFL.  Washington’s offensive line is another year older and wasn’t particularly dominating last year.  Jason Campbell is going to struggle, especially in the first half of the season, learning a new West Coast offense.  I expect the Redskins to really struggle this season and finish with a 6-10 record.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (UNDER 6.5) – St. Louis is going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL once again this year.  The offensive and defensive lines are awful and the worst in the league.  I don’t expect St. Louis to stop anyone on defense this year.  The Rams head coach Scott Linehan replaced all of his assistants coming into this year, as he will be the next person to go if they struggle again.  Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are capable of having good seasons, but they don’t have any kind of offensive line to help them out.  Look for this to be a very long season for the Rams and for Scott Linehan to be fired at the end of the year.

DETROIT LIONS (OVER 6.5) – Detroit is a under the radar team coming into this season.  Everyone forgets that they had an outstanding start for the first half of last season before tanking at the end.  They have a very good quarterback in Jon Kitna, as well as the first or second best wide receiving group in the NFL with Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson.  This team finished 7-9 last season, and I expect another 7-9 or 8-8 finish.  They get home games with Green Bay, Chicago, Washington, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota and New Orleans.  I expect them to come have a 5-3 home record, which means they only need two road wins to reach 7 wins.  They have winnable road games at Chicago, Carolina, San Francisco, and Atlanta.  The Lions have added Rudi Johnson to complement their draft pick of Kevin Smith in the backfield.  However, the Lions have ditched Mike Martz and his pass happy offense.  As long as the Lions don’t try to run too much, they should put up very good offensive numbers with the passing game.  The defense will be a weak point still but slightly better than last year.  Overall I look for this team to have a decent season.

HOUSTON TEXANS (OVER 7.5) – Houston is a very under-rated team heading into this year.  They return starting quarterback Matt Schaub, as well as all the other pieces of an offensive unit that was very productive last year.  The offensive line has been a weak point of recent years, but they have shown improvement in the past three seasons.  They have playmakers on offense with Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, and Owen Daniels.  They have an improving defensive line as well, anchored by Mario Williams.  Houston finished with an 8-8 record last year, and they are going to be much better this season!  Look for them to make the playoffs and be a surprise team.

DALLAS COWBOYS (OVER 10.5) – This selection is obvious.  Dallas returns all of the pieces of last season where they had a 13-3 record.  The Cowboys also added playmakers Felix Jones and Adam “Pac Man” Jones, as well as kept the same offensive and defensive system.  They play an easier schedule this season however, facing off against the awful AFC North and NFC West.  They get non-conference games Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, Arizona, St. Louis, and San Francisco.  Look for them to have either 12 or 13 wins this season.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (UNDER 7) – Cincinnati still comes into this season with a lot of questions on defense.  In previous seasons their offense was able to pick the slack of the defense, but this season that won’t be the case.  They still don’t have a running game, especially with a below average offensive line.  This team also has to face the AFC South and the NFC East, the two best divisions in football by far.  Don’t be surprised if Carson Palmer doesn’t make it through the season due to injury.  I don’t look for Cincinnati to win hardly any of their road games.  They have to face the New York Giants, Dallas, New York Jets, Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland on the road.  The only road game they possibly have the chance to win is at Baltimore in the first game of the year.  Almost every team is more physical on the offensive and defensive lines.  Look for the Bengals to be one of the worst teams in the AFC.

CHICAGO BEARS (UNDER 7.5) – Chicago will no longer be able to rely on their defense to create scoring opportunities and keep them in games.  The defense is another year older and has lost more and more players to free agency through the years.  This group looked absolutely horrible in the preseason, especially on the first team.  Kyle Orton is not a playmaking quarterback by any means, in fact this season the Bears would be better playing Rex Grossman, as he can be either very good or very bad.  However, Chicago needs some scoring this year to have a successful season.  They simply cannot rely on Orton managing the game while their defense and special teams sets them up for scoring chances.  Chicago finished 7-9 last season, but they are going to be much worse this year.  They have a brutal seven game stretch to finish the season, playing three road games in a row at Green Bay, St. Louis, and Minnesota.  Their last five games are against all playoff contenders, Minnesota, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Houston.  Look for the Bears to be out of the playoff hunt 2/3 of the way through the season and be crushed at the end of the year.

I haven’t found any wagers available on future NFL playoff wagers, but these are the teams that I think will make the playoffs this year.

NFC – Dallas, Minnesota, Seattle, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and New York Giants

AFC – New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Houston, and Jacksonville

COLLEGE FOOTBALL EARLY SEASON HANDICAPPING KEYS
Evan Altemus (Speculating Sports)
            There are many things to take notice from the first night in college football yesterday.  I can confidently say that handicapping early season college football is much different from the end of the season.  In order to be successful at picking winning selections, you must be aware of what things to look for.  I will discuss the process that use to handicap these early season games.
            The first thing that I look for is continuity, by that I mean what coaches, players, and systems are returning.  Teams that have coaching changes never do that well at the start of season, and sometimes it takes a full season or two for progress to be made, depending on how bad of a state the program was in. 
The next thing I look at is what players do teams have returning.  However, it’s not enough to say that one team will be better than another just because they have more starters coming back.  The key positions to look at are the quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, shut down cornerbacks, and any star playmakers.  Running backs, wide receivers, and safeties don’t matter as much.  Returning playmakers such as Percy Harvin for Florida and Jeremy Maclin for Missouri make such a big difference, as opposing team’s defenses have to game plan just for those individual players instead of the whole offense. 
Offensive and defensive lines don’t get many headlines, but they are the back bone of a football team.  West Virginia’s beat down of Oklahoma last year was mainly because of their offensive line, opening huge holes.  Any running back can look good behind a quality O-line.  Meanwhile, LSU was able to dominate Ohio State in the National Championship because of a dominating defensive line.  If the D-line is constantly getting pressure, then the quarterback is much more likely to fumble or throw interceptions.  If the running game can’t get going, then a defense can keep more guys back in the secondary as well.  West Virginia, Ohio State, Alabama, Tennessee, and Oklahoma look to have the best offensive lines in the country.  Meanwhile, the best defensive lines belong to Oklahoma, Penn State, LSU, and Georgia. 
Coaches that come in with vastly different systems than their predecessor also have some growing pains.  Obvious teams that come to mind are Rich Rodriguez of Michigan, Paul Johnson of Georgia Tech, and Bo Pelini of Nebraska.
            Many of these early season games feature non-conference match-ups.  Let’s look at this weekend’s game between Florida Atlantic and Texas, with Texas being a 24 point favorite.  This game is a match-up between teams from the Big 12 Conference and the Sun Belt Conference.  There is a HUGE disparity between the overall quality of recruits these two teams get.  Florida Atlantic however is expected by many to be an up-and-coming team, crushing Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl last year as well as returning 17 starters.  However, the Owls might be an up and coming mid-major team but that doesn’t mean they have the athletes capable of hanging with Texas; because look at how they performed against BCS schools last season.  They lost 42-6 at Oklahoma State, lost 45-17 to Kentucky, lost 35-23 to South Florida, lost 59-20 to Florida.  They failed to cover in every game except South Florida.  However, before you jump on the Texas bandwagon, look at how they performed against lesser opponents last season.  They had very close games to Arkansas State and at UCF.  So this game will come down to if Texas shows up or not, which is impossible to confidently decide which team will cover the spread.
            One final thing I look at with these opponents is the past history that each conference has against other non-conference foes.  For example, the Big 10 Conference has had a lot of problems against other BCS conferences, especially the SEC.  Meanwhile, the SEC has played very well against BCS conferences.  Overall this season the SEC and Big 12 Conference looks to be by far the best conferences.  The Big East might be the third best conference this season with South Florida, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and West Virginia all looking to have strong seasons.  Meanwhile, the Big 10 Conference and the ACC are the worst BCS conferences coming into this season. 
            These are some of the things I look for when handicapping early season college football games.  Handicapping these games requires a slightly different approach, as there is no preseason which makes things more of a guessing game.  You should have success handicapping the early season games though using some of these approaches and ideas.

NFL PRESEASON KEYS – Evan Altemus (Speculating Sports)

            The betting public will tell you to stay away from betting preseason NFL, but they are mistaken as usual.  Preseason games are like handicapping any other sport.  Once you figure out what it takes to consistently pick winners, just keep following your model.  The reason why people are mostly unsuccessful picking winners before the NFL regular season is that they try to apply principles that work for Weeks 1-16.  However handicapping NFL games in the month of August is an entirely different animal.  Here are some keys that will help you be successful handicapping preseason games.
            First, it is essential to know a coach’s mindset going into the game.  Unlike the regular season, coaches will give loads of information about what they are going to focus on going into these meaningless games.  They may be focused on running the ball, resting their starters, opening up the offense, etc.  Also, you can gain a feel for how serious these coaches will take the games during their press conferences.  Certain coaches have a trend of performing much better or worse in the preseason.  Tony Dungy and Andy Reid are NOTORIOUS for not caring at all about these games.  However be careful, as oddsmakers may adjust for them, as is the case with Indianapolis opening up as a 6 point dog to Washington.
            A second key to these games is having a feel for trends.  Week 1 of the preseason has had a tendency for games to fall under the total.  Meanwhile, weeks 2 and 3 tend to go over the total.  Week 4 has a tendency to go under the total because of lack of effort and totals being set higher than the previous 3 weeks.
            Another aspect to look at when handicapping these games is personnel.  Most of the outcomes of these games are decided in the second half, therefore 3rd and 4th stringers play a HUGE role.  Therefore you must take a hard look at the overall group of quarterbacks a team has.  A team like the Chicago Bears doesn’t have a decent 1st string quarterback, but they have 3 average QB’s that can really dominate 3rd string defenses.
            The final factor to look at is the experience of the head coaches and teams.  A younger team with less veterans is much more likely to take these preseason games more serious.  Veterans don’t want to risk getting hurt and won’t play anywhere near as hard as younger players looking to make a name for themselves.  The same thing can be said for head coaches.  A perfect example of this was the week 1 preseason game last year between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.  The game was Mike Tomlin’s first as head coach, meanwhile Andy Reid could care less about the outcome of the game.  Accordingly, Pittsburgh really dominated Philadelphia 20-7, easily covering as a 3 point underdog. 
            Trends and stats like the four mentioned above are essential to look at when handicapping the NFL preseason.  DO NOT ANALYZE THESE GAMES LIKE THE REGULAR SEASON!!!!

May 28 - BASEBALL HANDICAPPING 101 - Now that the baseball season has been going on for almost two months, let's discuss some baseball handicapping keys to help your bankroll. First and foremost, in order to have success betting baseball you must focus on trends. These trends include everything from winning/losing streaks, hot/cold pitchers, and hitting. However, these trends must be looked at deeper in order to find good betting opportunities. For example, Atlanta came into their game last night at Milwaukee winning 8 of their last 11 games. The Braves scored 53 runs in that 11 game stretch where all of those contests were played at home. Milwaukee came into last night's game losing 6 of their last 10 games. They gave up 5 runs or more in 6 of those 10 games also. Last night's game appeared like a perfect spot to bet the Braves as a slight favorite. They had their ace, Tim Hudson, getting the start. Meanwhile, Milwaukee had David Bush, who has been shaky all season, taking the mound for them. Bush had given up 4 runs or more in 6 out of his last 9 starts. Atlanta, despite many factors pointing toward them getting the win, ended up losing 3-2 to Milwaukee. The Brewers were able to get 2 runs off Hudson late in the game, then scored the game winner off of the Braves bullpen in the bottom of the 9th. What is the point to all of this? Don't blindly jump on streaks. Milwaukee, a very young squad, is a good home team, while a questionable road team. Atlanta has hit almost 40 points lower against righties on the road. In addition, they have been horrendous on the road, with a 6-17 record as a visitor this season. All of these factors completely negated the Braves hot streak and the Brewers slump. While Milwaukee would not have been a good play in that game, Atlanta was not a good selection either. Teams do not continue to win or lose, and they typically end their streaks/slumps upon returning home or going on the road. Bottomline, don't blindly bet streaks. Research them further to see if there is in fact a good opportunity.

May 6- NBA Playoffs-Now that the 2nd round has begun, let's take a look at what handicapping techniques have proven to be successful so far in the NBA playoffs. Home teams have been very successful in the opening few games of each series. New Orleans, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Detroit, Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando were a combined 11-3 against the spread in the first two games of the 1st round. All of those teams played their first round games at home. It should be noted though, that many of them failed to cover in later games in the series. The obvious thing to take from that stat is that the better teams are able to dominate their lesser quality visiting opponents. However, once these visitors become used to playing at the same arena, they are able to keep games much closer and in some cases pull out the win. Washington and Cleveland both won the last two games of their series on each other's court. Overall, be very wary of some of these teams coming into game 2 after losing against the spread in game 1. All of these teams are very good and have the ability to make adjustments. The key is to look for situations where one team has obvious advantages to the point where the visitor cannot adjust enough to cover the spread. A perfect example of this theory is last night's game 2 between San Antonio and New Orleans. New Orleans is a very tough draw for San Antonio, regardless of what adjustments they make. The Spurs have NO ONE who can defend David West, but I look for the emotional West to have problems on the road in games 3 and 4. The Hornets have the best player on the court in Chris Paul. They also play outstanding defense at home because of the energy that this team gets from their home fans. San Antonio adjusted somewhat, but it didn't matter as the above mentioned intangibles were too much for the Spurs. Accordinly, my top selection for last night easily cashed in for my clients. Look for more profitability from my NBA selections throughout the playoffs.

March 16 - As the NCAA tournament is only four days away, let's look at handicapping tournament games. I am going to look at conference tournaments first to help us in our handicapping. Underdogs have had tremendous success in conference tournament play. In fact, many underdogs have won outright. One reason for these underdog outright wins is that these games are being played on neutral courts. Home teams win about 70% of all games played. When teams are placed on a neutral court, anything can happen, which explains why underdogs have done so well. When oddsmakers made spreads for games on neutral courts, they give a team that the public obviously thinks is better about a 3-8 point advantage. However, not many favorites have won by more than ten points. Many of these conference games have been close, but before you go crazy on underdogs in NCAA tournament play, let's look at a few other factors. Many of these teams have already faced each other twice this season, therefore there are no surprises and the underdogs are not shaken by the much better favorite. Also, some of the favorites already have NCAA tournament spots secured and have not been getting up for games against lesser opponents. On Tuesday I will discuss further on how to successfully handicap the NCAA tournament games.

February 16 - Let's discuss college basketball handicapping fundamentals. Many times you see the average taking large favorites both at home and on the road. Large road favorites, especially teams favored by dougle digits, are usually poor selections. For example, lets look at Oklahoma State at Texas A&M. Oklahoma State won the game outright as a 13 point favorite on the road!!! However, if I was forced to make a selection on this game, I would have leaned toward A&M. The Aggies entered this contest winning their last five games straight up and against the spread, including a three point win at Oklahoma State a few weeks ago. In addition, Texas A&M has a huge home court advantage, winning each home game by an average of twenty points. Certainly, Texas A&M has the ability to win by 13 points or more, especially since the Cowboys had not won on the road yet this season. However, A&M came out flat in this game, and they were never able to rebound. They let Oklahoma State hang out. The Aggies did not get up for this game at all and it showed. Before selecting a large favorite, there must be many reasons supporting the selection. The most important thing when looking at a large favorite is motivation. Did the team giving points just come off of a tough, emotional win? Do they have their next game against their biggest rival or best team in the conference? If any of these answers are yes, then chances are the favorite will not be motivated to blowout a much weaker team. Motivation is the explanation for Texas A&M beating Texas at home by 17 points but losing to Oklahoma State by 3 points. Motivation and let down games are critical to selecting winners in college basketball.

February 3 - I am going to once again discuss NBA handicapping, as I continue my adventure to beat the books in pro basketball. First, it is essential to limit the number of games wagered on. Anytime I look at some of the so-called expert selections, the more games they select on a given night, the worse they do. The reason for this trend is that, like I said numerous times, bookmakers have the most accurate lines on NBA games, than other sport (college or pro). Look at any given night which features more than a handful of games. Very often you see most sides fall within five points or less of the number. Now totals are somewhat of a different story, but still very accurate. It is almost impossible to pick a bunch of random NBA games and win long term. Here are some of the things to look for that I have found successful. Look for recent trends that people may have not caught on to yet. For example, the Bulls have been without Ben Gordon and Luol Deng in four games recently. They proceeded to score 67, 77, 77, and 96 points. They were held to those low point totals by Phoenix, Minnesota (twice), and Charlotte, some of the worst defensive scoring teams in the league. All four games were easily under the total, and they were 1-3 against the spread, only beating Minnesota at home to cover. The books however did not adjust much at all, especially in totals. Another recent trend is the Trail Blazers slide the past few games, Seattle's three game win streak, and Utah's good performance of late. Now some of these trends I still wouldn't go with, but they are reasons not to pick the other team. A second way to beat the books, is to look for NBA games which feature totals which are closer to those two team's averages instead of what is accurate. A perfect example of that is today's game, Dallas at Detroit. According to each team's average points scored and given up, the final score today would have been about 97-93 for a total of 190 points. However, a closer look at each team showed that when they have played against good teams with decent defenses, the combined points scored have been much lower. Add to that fact that Dallas scored much less on the road and allowed less points, in addition to Detroit allowing less than 90 points per game at home. The books released a total of 186, only four points off what the average should be!!! Basically they only adjusted for the absences of Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse to injuries. These two examples are just a few of the ways to beat the books. However, you must find examples like these to be successful, as handicapping many games will not lead to success.

January 31st - This entry is going to discuss NBA wagering. I have really struggled lately in my NBA selections. So where have I gone wrong? First, I am going to start with some things I have noticed over the past few weeks. Last night, there were three good games: Dallas at Boston, San Antonio at Phoenix, and Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit. All three games played under the total, with the Dallas/Boston game being the only one which came close to going over. The other two games had totals of around 200. Almost all of these teams have very good defenses, except for Los Angeles. Even though Phoenix allows teams to score alot of points, they are in the top ten for defensive field goal percentage. Gauging motivation is crucial for NBA handicapping. In these big games, teams with good defenses ratchet down and play harder than in the average game. Therefore, the extra motivation explains why these games were well under the total. Also, NBA players are all professionals and, if they play hard, are basically all equal in talent. Now there are certain exceptions for select few players like Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, and Tim Duncan. Especially when you have teams with alot of good players, such as Detroit, Dallas, Boston, San Antonio, and Phoenix. Therefore, if you are going to select a team like Detroit to beat the Lakers by over 8 points, there better be some very good reasons. In these big games, if the spread is over 2-3 points, the underdog is worth taking a hard look at. The second subject I want to discuss is the number of selections one makes each night. The NBA season is very long, lasting from the end of October until June. Each team plays 82 games, in addition to the playoffs. Also, the lines for most NBA games are very sharp. Many people believe that the NBA is the hardest sport to handicap of all the major sports. I am VERY guilty of making too many selections so far this season, and it is something I must get better at. It is impossible to make selections on most of the games each night be successful. The lines are too sharp and alot of fluke things happen at the end of the game. A few weeks ago, I had the under selection on a Toronto game. It was going excellent until the fourth quarter. The two teams combined to score around 70 points in the fourth quarter, with Toronto scoring 40 points themselves!!! It was very upsetting. But that freak occurance proves one thing, you must always make selections that limit such things from happening. That means selecting games that have the following keys: both teams will be motivated, games which oddsmakers made exaggerated totals because of both teams known for high scoring, teams with injuries to key starters/reserves, noticing recent trends. Noticing trends will allow you to have success for a few games, but oddsmakers will be quick to adjust. Such as with the Spurs recent slide and Hornets streak. New Orleans failed to cover and San Antonio covered last night, after oddsmakers had adjusted for their recent streaks. You cannot be successful by picking random games and trying to handicap them. You must be creative in your approach. Not all favorites will cover and not all totals in the 200's will go over. I will learn from my recent slump and will improve as the season goes on.

January 29th - Last night it was once again proven how much successful basketball handicapping is tied to knowing who's going to be out because of injuries. The Clippers did not play Chris Kaman and Corey Maggette because of an injury and illness. As a result, they were dominated by a poor Bobcats team. After Charlotte had initally said Raymond Felton was not going to play, he ended up starting and playing the entire game. However, the Bobcats proved again just how weak their defense is. They allowed 100 points to the Clippers who were playing mostly with reserves. The Clippers were able to shoot 55% from the field. If they were able to make three pointers, they still may have even won the game outright. On a different note, something interesting happened last night and the day before. Oklahoma State barely lost to Oklahoma on the road despite being dominated in almost every phase of the game. Michigan was still able to cover against Michigan State despite being absolutely destroyed in all areas of the game. Oklahoma was favored by 8.5 points and Michigan State was favored by 16.5 points. Sometimes teams are able to cover in games where they are getting dominated. When selecting a team to cover a large spread, you must be very confident that a team will be so dominant that they can easily cover a large spread. The first thing to look for when deciding on a team favored by a significant margin is do they have the ability to blow out their opponent. The second thing to look at is have they actually blown out teams this year by a margin needed to cover. The third thing to look at is what will be both team's motivation going into the game. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have a huge rivalry with each other, so even though Oklahoma probably should have blown them out, OSU was extremely motivated to keep fighting the entire game.

January 28th - Yesterday our NBA selection was Houston -3 at home against Utah. We made this selection the night before the game. However, after the game had started, I realized that Houston's all-star center Yao Ming was not playing due to a respiratory infection. Even without Yao, Houston was able to keep the game close, but Utah pulled away in the 4th quarter. This game proved how much of an effect injuries can have on NBA games. You must have accurate injury information in order to be successful on NBA wagering. Handicapping the NBA is very difficult as it is. The Lakers are proof of how an injury to a key player can hurt. They haven't been the same team since Andrew Bynum went down with his injury. Kobe Bryant has once again become selfish, and he has hurt his team as a result. Charlotte is another example of this theory. Their offense is horrendous when Raymond Felton, their starting point guard, is out. They cannot score points and play a much slower tempo. Yesterday, Boston lost to Orlando as a result of Kevin Garnett not playing. They have also played poorly when Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo have been out. Probably the most valuable player to his team though is Steve Nash. The Suns have been HORRIBLE with him out of the lineup. Most recently was their blowout loss at Utah a few games ago. If Steve Nash is not playing, the Sun's opponent is a must play.

January 26th - Now that college basketball conference games are in full swing, a few things should be noted. Mediocre teams in the major conferences are not as dominant at home as in earlier in the season. This trend was evident today as Oklahoma, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Saint Louis, and UNLV all won as road underdogs. The bad thing for me is that I was I lost four games today because of this trend. However, many other medium home favorites were dominant, such as Mississippi State, Alabama, BYU, New Mexico State, and Iowa all dominated their opponents. Overall, if you are looking at taking a favorite of 4-9 points, you want to be very sure that your selection has the capability to blow their opponent out. Think about it, in order to get a comfortable cover of let's say over 6 points, you would need your selection to win by close to 20 points. Basically, if you aren't very sure your team will blow the other team out completely, then stay away from these selections. Some things to look for when identifying these situations would be a young team prone to alot of turnovers, motivational edge, strong defensive advantage, matchup problems, injuries, tempo/style of play, and obviously home court advantage. Mississippi State destroyed the 15th ranked Mississippi Rebels at home today, which was very confusing to some people. However, the Bulldogs have a tremendous size advantage on the inside and the nation's leading shot blocker. The Rebels starting big man was hurt and out for this game. The Rebels play a faster paced style of game, which can be disastrous on the road. The Bulldogs were motivated to blowout their in-state rival in front of their home crowd.

January 10th - College basketball teams are about halfway through the regular season now and beginning conference play. A number of teams have progressed/regressed since the start of the season. Noticing these changes is essential to being successful in college basketball. For example, New Mexico State lost their head coach, Reggie Theus, to the Sacramento Kings. As a result, they really struggled to start the season, adjusting to a new system. However, they have started to turn the corner, and they have been playing much better basketball. I feel they are still undervalued. Louisville and Wisconsin Milwaukee are also examples of teams who have begun to overcome previous personnel issues and are undervalued. Auburn does not have very much depth, and they will probably really struggle through the rest of the season. Louisville has turned a corner and have started to play up to their potential. This change is because of getting Juan Palacios and David Padgett back from injuries. NBA-Knowing which team is motivated for a given game is so crucial to successfully betting NBA games. A perfect example is tonight's Detroit at San Antonio game. Detroit was determined to overcome their two game losing streak and soundly defeated the Spurs. It is crucial to understand how much motivation a team has going to into a game, especially in a long regular season. Teams will have varying amounts of motivation throughout the season.

January 9th - Dayton is a very good team this year, especially at home in big games. Iowa is going to struggle on the road in the Big Ten this year while they implement new coach Franklickliter's system. Try to look for letdown games. Clemson was coming off an overtime loss to UNC, and ended up losing their next game at home against a young Charlotte squad. St. Joseph's should be a good road play this season. LSU is really going to struggle this season, as they have a very young team. Mississippi and Drake have proven so far that they are for real. Minnesota and Arizona State have been surprising this year, especially at home. NBA-Seattle really struggles to score on the road, routinely scoring under 90 points. New York has had some success at home, so be careful of going against them at Madison Square Garden. Portland and the LA Lakers continue on their streaks. The Lakers have been an offensive machine, and Portland is a great play at home, but not so much on the road. Brandon Roy is the key to their success. Miami has really struggled this season with all their injuries and an aging Shaq. I cannot see them being a good play for awhile.

January 8th - Southern Illinois is very tough at home. In fact, home court advantage is very significant in the Missouri Valley Conference. Brown is a very under-rated team. Florida will improve alot throughout the season, and they looked impressive with a big road win over Alabama. Marquette has struggled in their last two games, be cafeful of taking this team as a large favorite. NBA-Washington is an over-rated team, and Houston proved that they are under-rated and have been playing better without Tracy McGrady. Sacramento, Charlotte, Cleveland, and Utah are very dominant at home. Look for good plays to make with Charlotte at home, especially when they are an underdog.

January 7th - Wisconsin Milwaukee has developed into a complete team with the loss of some starters this season. They are focused and are playing very good basketball as a team. Colorado is still not a very good team with their blowout loss at home to Tulsa. NBA-Golden State plays very well at home, particularly in big games. When motivated, Phoenix can score alot and easily blow out teams.

January 6th - Clemson proved they are for real this season with their overtime loss at home to UNC. In fact, they were leading throughout the game, but the Tigers could finish the Tar Heels at the end. Clemson should finish the season near the top of the ACC. Illinois showed they are not as talented this season with a home loss to a scrappy Penn State team. Penn State may be a team to make some plays on this season, particularly as a home underdog or large road underdog to some of the better Big Ten teams. Xavier is the real deal this year. The loss of starting guard Levance Fields will hurt Pittsburgh, but they proved against Villanova that the injury will not stop them from playing tough. Villanova has not looked particuarly impressive so far this season though. West Virginia will improve throughout the season with new head coach Bob Huggins.

October 10th NFL Home Underdogs - After 5 weeks into the NFL season, I have noticed an interesting trend. Home underdogs so far this season are 16-9 against the spread. That is good enough for a 65% win percentage. However a closer look into these numbers reveal an even more interesting fact. New England and Dallas are the two best teams in their respective conferences so far this year. Together they are 4-1 against the spread as road favorites. Take those teams out and home underdogs are 15-5 against the spread. What's the reason for this? Well this year there is alot of mediocrity in the league. The balance of power between the best three teams, Indianapolis, New England, Dallas, and the rest of the league is substantial. So the home underdogs are basically the same quality as their opponents. Getting the extra boost from being at home gives them enough motivation to easily cover.

September 9th College Football - There are certain situations you should always be very cautious of when betting college football. First and foremost is avoid betting on away favorites, particularly heavily favored teams. This weekend's obvious example is Hawaii at Louisiana Tech. Hawaii was a 28 point favorite against a team most believed they would easily destroy, especially me. However I was wrong and learned a valuable lesson. Heavy road favorites usually have little motivation for playing against these lesser opponents. The West Virginia at Marshall game this weekend was an obvious example of this. West Virginia came out very flat against a home Marshall team who came out with something to prove, especially with their school being featured on ESPN2. Luckily for me though, West Virginia turned it on for a 4th quarter cover. What situations should you look for then? You want to look for home underdogs and home favorites playing in big games. Examples proving these theories are Tennessee at Cal last week, Va. Tech at LSU, and Boise St. at Washington this past week. Quality teams really get up in big games at home against good opponents. The spreads usually appear to be high at first, but that is so that the oddsmakers can balance the action. LSU -13 and Penn State -17 appeared to be very high spreads, however both home teams covered in their big games at home. So what situations should you look for this week then? These are not my picks yet, but Louisville at Kentucky and Tennessee at Florida jump out at me immediately. Especially Kentucky being a 6.5 point underdog at home against a Louisville team who gave up over 40 points to Middle Tennessee State at home!

September 6th Baseball Wagering - Betting on baseball can be very frustrating if you aren't looking at the right things. The biggest thing to focus on when betting baseball is recent trends. I cannot stress this enough. You will not make money at baseball unless trend analysis is your main focus. One of the most exaggerated factors is starting pitching. On average, starting pitchers are only a factor for 2/3 of the game. Bullpens play a huge role in the outcome of games. Recent performance of each team's bullpen and hitting are essential. Good hitting teams can get in slumps and bad hitting teams could be streaking. You must know what a team's trends have been. The same fundamentals that will make you a successful NFL and NCAA football handicapper will cost you dearly in baseball. With football you look for positions to go against last week's trend, but in baseball you want to be with trends. Look for undervalued teams who are on winning streaks, and look to play overs on matchups between quality starting pitchers who have been slumping over their last few games. Trend analysis is the best way to get the most value.

As always, think of sports handicapping as investing, not betting.