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May 28 - BASEBALL HANDICAPPING 101 - Now that the baseball season has been going on for almost two months, let's discuss some baseball handicapping keys to help your bankroll. First and foremost, in order to have success betting baseball you must focus on trends. These trends include everything from winning/losing streaks, hot/cold pitchers, and hitting. However, these trends must be looked at deeper in order to find good betting opportunities. For example, Atlanta came into their game last night at Milwaukee winning 8 of their last 11 games. The Braves scored 53 runs in that 11 game stretch where all of those contests were played at home. Milwaukee came into last night's game losing 6 of their last 10 games. They gave up 5 runs or more in 6 of those 10 games also. Last night's game appeared like a perfect spot to bet the Braves as a slight favorite. They had their ace, Tim Hudson, getting the start. Meanwhile, Milwaukee had David Bush, who has been shaky all season, taking the mound for them. Bush had given up 4 runs or more in 6 out of his last 9 starts. Atlanta, despite many factors pointing toward them getting the win, ended up losing 3-2 to Milwaukee. The Brewers were able to get 2 runs off Hudson late in the game, then scored the game winner off of the Braves bullpen in the bottom of the 9th. What is the point to all of this? Don't blindly jump on streaks. Milwaukee, a very young squad, is a good home team, while a questionable road team. Atlanta has hit almost 40 points lower against righties on the road. In addition, they have been horrendous on the road, with a 6-17 record as a visitor this season. All of these factors completely negated the Braves hot streak and the Brewers slump. While Milwaukee would not have been a good play in that game, Atlanta was not a good selection either. Teams do not continue to win or lose, and they typically end their streaks/slumps upon returning home or going on the road. Bottomline, don't blindly bet streaks. Research them further to see if there is in fact a good opportunity.

May 6- NBA Playoffs-Now that the 2nd round has begun, let's take a look at what handicapping techniques have proven to be successful so far in the NBA playoffs. Home teams have been very successful in the opening few games of each series. New Orleans, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Detroit, Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando were a combined 11-3 against the spread in the first two games of the 1st round. All of those teams played their first round games at home. It should be noted though, that many of them failed to cover in later games in the series. The obvious thing to take from that stat is that the better teams are able to dominate their lesser quality visiting opponents. However, once these visitors become used to playing at the same arena, they are able to keep games much closer and in some cases pull out the win. Washington and Cleveland both won the last two games of their series on each other's court. Overall, be very wary of some of these teams coming into game 2 after losing against the spread in game 1. All of these teams are very good and have the ability to make adjustments. The key is to look for situations where one team has obvious advantages to the point where the visitor cannot adjust enough to cover the spread. A perfect example of this theory is last night's game 2 between San Antonio and New Orleans. New Orleans is a very tough draw for San Antonio, regardless of what adjustments they make. The Spurs have NO ONE who can defend David West, but I look for the emotional West to have problems on the road in games 3 and 4. The Hornets have the best player on the court in Chris Paul. They also play outstanding defense at home because of the energy that this team gets from their home fans. San Antonio adjusted somewhat, but it didn't matter as the above mentioned intangibles were too much for the Spurs. Accordinly, my top selection for last night easily cashed in for my clients. Look for more profitability from my NBA selections throughout the playoffs.

March 16 - As the NCAA tournament is only four days away, let's look at handicapping tournament games. I am going to look at conference tournaments first to help us in our handicapping. Underdogs have had tremendous success in conference tournament play. In fact, many underdogs have won outright. One reason for these underdog outright wins is that these games are being played on neutral courts. Home teams win about 70% of all games played. When teams are placed on a neutral court, anything can happen, which explains why underdogs have done so well. When oddsmakers made spreads for games on neutral courts, they give a team that the public obviously thinks is better about a 3-8 point advantage. However, not many favorites have won by more than ten points. Many of these conference games have been close, but before you go crazy on underdogs in NCAA tournament play, let's look at a few other factors. Many of these teams have already faced each other twice this season, therefore there are no surprises and the underdogs are not shaken by the much better favorite. Also, some of the favorites already have NCAA tournament spots secured and have not been getting up for games against lesser opponents. On Tuesday I will discuss further on how to successfully handicap the NCAA tournament games.

February 16 - Let's discuss college basketball handicapping fundamentals. Many times you see the average taking large favorites both at home and on the road. Large road favorites, especially teams favored by dougle digits, are usually poor selections. For example, lets look at Oklahoma State at Texas A&M. Oklahoma State won the game outright as a 13 point favorite on the road!!! However, if I was forced to make a selection on this game, I would have leaned toward A&M. The Aggies entered this contest winning their last five games straight up and against the spread, including a three point win at Oklahoma State a few weeks ago. In addition, Texas A&M has a huge home court advantage, winning each home game by an average of twenty points. Certainly, Texas A&M has the ability to win by 13 points or more, especially since the Cowboys had not won on the road yet this season. However, A&M came out flat in this game, and they were never able to rebound. They let Oklahoma State hang out. The Aggies did not get up for this game at all and it showed. Before selecting a large favorite, there must be many reasons supporting the selection. The most important thing when looking at a large favorite is motivation. Did the team giving points just come off of a tough, emotional win? Do they have their next game against their biggest rival or best team in the conference? If any of these answers are yes, then chances are the favorite will not be motivated to blowout a much weaker team. Motivation is the explanation for Texas A&M beating Texas at home by 17 points but losing to Oklahoma State by 3 points. Motivation and let down games are critical to selecting winners in college basketball.

February 3 - I am going to once again discuss NBA handicapping, as I continue my adventure to beat the books in pro basketball. First, it is essential to limit the number of games wagered on. Anytime I look at some of the so-called expert selections, the more games they select on a given night, the worse they do. The reason for this trend is that, like I said numerous times, bookmakers have the most accurate lines on NBA games, than other sport (college or pro). Look at any given night which features more than a handful of games. Very often you see most sides fall within five points or less of the number. Now totals are somewhat of a different story, but still very accurate. It is almost impossible to pick a bunch of random NBA games and win long term. Here are some of the things to look for that I have found successful. Look for recent trends that people may have not caught on to yet. For example, the Bulls have been without Ben Gordon and Luol Deng in four games recently. They proceeded to score 67, 77, 77, and 96 points. They were held to those low point totals by Phoenix, Minnesota (twice), and Charlotte, some of the worst defensive scoring teams in the league. All four games were easily under the total, and they were 1-3 against the spread, only beating Minnesota at home to cover. The books however did not adjust much at all, especially in totals. Another recent trend is the Trail Blazers slide the past few games, Seattle's three game win streak, and Utah's good performance of late. Now some of these trends I still wouldn't go with, but they are reasons not to pick the other team. A second way to beat the books, is to look for NBA games which feature totals which are closer to those two team's averages instead of what is accurate. A perfect example of that is today's game, Dallas at Detroit. According to each team's average points scored and given up, the final score today would have been about 97-93 for a total of 190 points. However, a closer look at each team showed that when they have played against good teams with decent defenses, the combined points scored have been much lower. Add to that fact that Dallas scored much less on the road and allowed less points, in addition to Detroit allowing less than 90 points per game at home. The books released a total of 186, only four points off what the average should be!!! Basically they only adjusted for the absences of Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse to injuries. These two examples are just a few of the ways to beat the books. However, you must find examples like these to be successful, as handicapping many games will not lead to success.

January 31st - This entry is going to discuss NBA wagering. I have really struggled lately in my NBA selections. So where have I gone wrong? First, I am going to start with some things I have noticed over the past few weeks. Last night, there were three good games: Dallas at Boston, San Antonio at Phoenix, and Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit. All three games played under the total, with the Dallas/Boston game being the only one which came close to going over. The other two games had totals of around 200. Almost all of these teams have very good defenses, except for Los Angeles. Even though Phoenix allows teams to score alot of points, they are in the top ten for defensive field goal percentage. Gauging motivation is crucial for NBA handicapping. In these big games, teams with good defenses ratchet down and play harder than in the average game. Therefore, the extra motivation explains why these games were well under the total. Also, NBA players are all professionals and, if they play hard, are basically all equal in talent. Now there are certain exceptions for select few players like Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, and Tim Duncan. Especially when you have teams with alot of good players, such as Detroit, Dallas, Boston, San Antonio, and Phoenix. Therefore, if you are going to select a team like Detroit to beat the Lakers by over 8 points, there better be some very good reasons. In these big games, if the spread is over 2-3 points, the underdog is worth taking a hard look at. The second subject I want to discuss is the number of selections one makes each night. The NBA season is very long, lasting from the end of October until June. Each team plays 82 games, in addition to the playoffs. Also, the lines for most NBA games are very sharp. Many people believe that the NBA is the hardest sport to handicap of all the major sports. I am VERY guilty of making too many selections so far this season, and it is something I must get better at. It is impossible to make selections on most of the games each night be successful. The lines are too sharp and alot of fluke things happen at the end of the game. A few weeks ago, I had the under selection on a Toronto game. It was going excellent until the fourth quarter. The two teams combined to score around 70 points in the fourth quarter, with Toronto scoring 40 points themselves!!! It was very upsetting. But that freak occurance proves one thing, you must always make selections that limit such things from happening. That means selecting games that have the following keys: both teams will be motivated, games which oddsmakers made exaggerated totals because of both teams known for high scoring, teams with injuries to key starters/reserves, noticing recent trends. Noticing trends will allow you to have success for a few games, but oddsmakers will be quick to adjust. Such as with the Spurs recent slide and Hornets streak. New Orleans failed to cover and San Antonio covered last night, after oddsmakers had adjusted for their recent streaks. You cannot be successful by picking random games and trying to handicap them. You must be creative in your approach. Not all favorites will cover and not all totals in the 200's will go over. I will learn from my recent slump and will improve as the season goes on.

January 29th - Last night it was once again proven how much successful basketball handicapping is tied to knowing who's going to be out because of injuries. The Clippers did not play Chris Kaman and Corey Maggette because of an injury and illness. As a result, they were dominated by a poor Bobcats team. After Charlotte had initally said Raymond Felton was not going to play, he ended up starting and playing the entire game. However, the Bobcats proved again just how weak their defense is. They allowed 100 points to the Clippers who were playing mostly with reserves. The Clippers were able to shoot 55% from the field. If they were able to make three pointers, they still may have even won the game outright. On a different note, something interesting happened last night and the day before. Oklahoma State barely lost to Oklahoma on the road despite being dominated in almost every phase of the game. Michigan was still able to cover against Michigan State despite being absolutely destroyed in all areas of the game. Oklahoma was favored by 8.5 points and Michigan State was favored by 16.5 points. Sometimes teams are able to cover in games where they are getting dominated. When selecting a team to cover a large spread, you must be very confident that a team will be so dominant that they can easily cover a large spread. The first thing to look for when deciding on a team favored by a significant margin is do they have the ability to blow out their opponent. The second thing to look at is have they actually blown out teams this year by a margin needed to cover. The third thing to look at is what will be both team's motivation going into the game. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have a huge rivalry with each other, so even though Oklahoma probably should have blown them out, OSU was extremely motivated to keep fighting the entire game.

January 28th - Yesterday our NBA selection was Houston -3 at home against Utah. We made this selection the night before the game. However, after the game had started, I realized that Houston's all-star center Yao Ming was not playing due to a respiratory infection. Even without Yao, Houston was able to keep the game close, but Utah pulled away in the 4th quarter. This game proved how much of an effect injuries can have on NBA games. You must have accurate injury information in order to be successful on NBA wagering. Handicapping the NBA is very difficult as it is. The Lakers are proof of how an injury to a key player can hurt. They haven't been the same team since Andrew Bynum went down with his injury. Kobe Bryant has once again become selfish, and he has hurt his team as a result. Charlotte is another example of this theory. Their offense is horrendous when Raymond Felton, their starting point guard, is out. They cannot score points and play a much slower tempo. Yesterday, Boston lost to Orlando as a result of Kevin Garnett not playing. They have also played poorly when Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo have been out. Probably the most valuable player to his team though is Steve Nash. The Suns have been HORRIBLE with him out of the lineup. Most recently was their blowout loss at Utah a few games ago. If Steve Nash is not playing, the Sun's opponent is a must play.

January 26th - Now that college basketball conference games are in full swing, a few things should be noted. Mediocre teams in the major conferences are not as dominant at home as in earlier in the season. This trend was evident today as Oklahoma, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Saint Louis, and UNLV all won as road underdogs. The bad thing for me is that I was I lost four games today because of this trend. However, many other medium home favorites were dominant, such as Mississippi State, Alabama, BYU, New Mexico State, and Iowa all dominated their opponents. Overall, if you are looking at taking a favorite of 4-9 points, you want to be very sure that your selection has the capability to blow their opponent out. Think about it, in order to get a comfortable cover of let's say over 6 points, you would need your selection to win by close to 20 points. Basically, if you aren't very sure your team will blow the other team out completely, then stay away from these selections. Some things to look for when identifying these situations would be a young team prone to alot of turnovers, motivational edge, strong defensive advantage, matchup problems, injuries, tempo/style of play, and obviously home court advantage. Mississippi State destroyed the 15th ranked Mississippi Rebels at home today, which was very confusing to some people. However, the Bulldogs have a tremendous size advantage on the inside and the nation's leading shot blocker. The Rebels starting big man was hurt and out for this game. The Rebels play a faster paced style of game, which can be disastrous on the road. The Bulldogs were motivated to blowout their in-state rival in front of their home crowd.

January 10th - College basketball teams are about halfway through the regular season now and beginning conference play. A number of teams have progressed/regressed since the start of the season. Noticing these changes is essential to being successful in college basketball. For example, New Mexico State lost their head coach, Reggie Theus, to the Sacramento Kings. As a result, they really struggled to start the season, adjusting to a new system. However, they have started to turn the corner, and they have been playing much better basketball. I feel they are still undervalued. Louisville and Wisconsin Milwaukee are also examples of teams who have begun to overcome previous personnel issues and are undervalued. Auburn does not have very much depth, and they will probably really struggle through the rest of the season. Louisville has turned a corner and have started to play up to their potential. This change is because of getting Juan Palacios and David Padgett back from injuries. NBA-Knowing which team is motivated for a given game is so crucial to successfully betting NBA games. A perfect example is tonight's Detroit at San Antonio game. Detroit was determined to overcome their two game losing streak and soundly defeated the Spurs. It is crucial to understand how much motivation a team has going to into a game, especially in a long regular season. Teams will have varying amounts of motivation throughout the season.

January 9th - Dayton is a very good team this year, especially at home in big games. Iowa is going to struggle on the road in the Big Ten this year while they implement new coach Franklickliter's system. Try to look for letdown games. Clemson was coming off an overtime loss to UNC, and ended up losing their next game at home against a young Charlotte squad. St. Joseph's should be a good road play this season. LSU is really going to struggle this season, as they have a very young team. Mississippi and Drake have proven so far that they are for real. Minnesota and Arizona State have been surprising this year, especially at home. NBA-Seattle really struggles to score on the road, routinely scoring under 90 points. New York has had some success at home, so be careful of going against them at Madison Square Garden. Portland and the LA Lakers continue on their streaks. The Lakers have been an offensive machine, and Portland is a great play at home, but not so much on the road. Brandon Roy is the key to their success. Miami has really struggled this season with all their injuries and an aging Shaq. I cannot see them being a good play for awhile.

January 8th - Southern Illinois is very tough at home. In fact, home court advantage is very significant in the Missouri Valley Conference. Brown is a very under-rated team. Florida will improve alot throughout the season, and they looked impressive with a big road win over Alabama. Marquette has struggled in their last two games, be cafeful of taking this team as a large favorite. NBA-Washington is an over-rated team, and Houston proved that they are under-rated and have been playing better without Tracy McGrady. Sacramento, Charlotte, Cleveland, and Utah are very dominant at home. Look for good plays to make with Charlotte at home, especially when they are an underdog.

January 7th - Wisconsin Milwaukee has developed into a complete team with the loss of some starters this season. They are focused and are playing very good basketball as a team. Colorado is still not a very good team with their blowout loss at home to Tulsa. NBA-Golden State plays very well at home, particularly in big games. When motivated, Phoenix can score alot and easily blow out teams.

January 6th - Clemson proved they are for real this season with their overtime loss at home to UNC. In fact, they were leading throughout the game, but the Tigers could finish the Tar Heels at the end. Clemson should finish the season near the top of the ACC. Illinois showed they are not as talented this season with a home loss to a scrappy Penn State team. Penn State may be a team to make some plays on this season, particularly as a home underdog or large road underdog to some of the better Big Ten teams. Xavier is the real deal this year. The loss of starting guard Levance Fields will hurt Pittsburgh, but they proved against Villanova that the injury will not stop them from playing tough. Villanova has not looked particuarly impressive so far this season though. West Virginia will improve throughout the season with new head coach Bob Huggins.

October 10th NFL Home Underdogs - After 5 weeks into the NFL season, I have noticed an interesting trend. Home underdogs so far this season are 16-9 against the spread. That is good enough for a 65% win percentage. However a closer look into these numbers reveal an even more interesting fact. New England and Dallas are the two best teams in their respective conferences so far this year. Together they are 4-1 against the spread as road favorites. Take those teams out and home underdogs are 15-5 against the spread. What's the reason for this? Well this year there is alot of mediocrity in the league. The balance of power between the best three teams, Indianapolis, New England, Dallas, and the rest of the league is substantial. So the home underdogs are basically the same quality as their opponents. Getting the extra boost from being at home gives them enough motivation to easily cover.

September 9th College Football - There are certain situations you should always be very cautious of when betting college football. First and foremost is avoid betting on away favorites, particularly heavily favored teams. This weekend's obvious example is Hawaii at Louisiana Tech. Hawaii was a 28 point favorite against a team most believed they would easily destroy, especially me. However I was wrong and learned a valuable lesson. Heavy road favorites usually have little motivation for playing against these lesser opponents. The West Virginia at Marshall game this weekend was an obvious example of this. West Virginia came out very flat against a home Marshall team who came out with something to prove, especially with their school being featured on ESPN2. Luckily for me though, West Virginia turned it on for a 4th quarter cover. What situations should you look for then? You want to look for home underdogs and home favorites playing in big games. Examples proving these theories are Tennessee at Cal last week, Va. Tech at LSU, and Boise St. at Washington this past week. Quality teams really get up in big games at home against good opponents. The spreads usually appear to be high at first, but that is so that the oddsmakers can balance the action. LSU -13 and Penn State -17 appeared to be very high spreads, however both home teams covered in their big games at home. So what situations should you look for this week then? These are not my picks yet, but Louisville at Kentucky and Tennessee at Florida jump out at me immediately. Especially Kentucky being a 6.5 point underdog at home against a Louisville team who gave up over 40 points to Middle Tennessee State at home!

September 6th Baseball Wagering - Betting on baseball can be very frustrating if you aren't looking at the right things. The biggest thing to focus on when betting baseball is recent trends. I cannot stress this enough. You will not make money at baseball unless trend analysis is your main focus. One of the most exaggerated factors is starting pitching. On average, starting pitchers are only a factor for 2/3 of the game. Bullpens play a huge role in the outcome of games. Recent performance of each team's bullpen and hitting are essential. Good hitting teams can get in slumps and bad hitting teams could be streaking. You must know what a team's trends have been. The same fundamentals that will make you a successful NFL and NCAA football handicapper will cost you dearly in baseball. With football you look for positions to go against last week's trend, but in baseball you want to be with trends. Look for undervalued teams who are on winning streaks, and look to play overs on matchups between quality starting pitchers who have been slumping over their last few games. Trend analysis is the best way to get the most value.

As always, think of sports handicapping as investing, not betting.