This game features some conflicting angles and theories that make it hard to release a premium selection. Central Florida comes into this game at 3-2 but has played a fairly challenging schedule, with two close losses to N.C. State and Kansas State. The Knights were trailing at home to N.C. State by a much wider margin before coming back late. They were also dominating Kansas State before letting them come back and get a close home win. One note though is that the Knights have played well on the road so far, winning at Buffalo and covering the point spread at Kansas State. Marshall has played a challenging schedule with games against Ohio State, West Virginia, and Southern Mississippi. They should have defeated West Virginia but were severely outplayed by Ohio State and Southern Mississippi.

Central Florida has a very tough defense, and I don’t expect Marshall to have much offensive success against them. The Knights have great team speed and size, especially in their front seven. Marshall is also only averaging 300 yards per game and will struggle against a BCS conference caliber defense. Defense always travels, so the Knights will slow down the Thundering Herd. However, Central Florida must be able to run the ball successfully to score points because of poor quarterback play. Their quarterbacks played better last week with Jeff Godfrey getting a majority of the snaps. However, he is inexperienced and mainly just a running quarterback. However, if Central Florida can run the ball well, then they will win and cover this game.

The biggest key to this game will be motivation. If Marshall has a great game plan and forces turnovers, then they can stay in this game. Rarely do the Thundering Herd get a featured weekday primetime game on television, and the last time that happened was earlier this season when they almost won outright against West Virginia. It remains to be seen how much motivation Central Florida will have. They have to fly from Orlando, FL to the country of West Virginia, so the motivation may be lacking, especially coming off of a big blowout home TV win. It’s a big concern because Marshall could bring a very focused effort on defense and keep a semi-weak offense like Central Florida in check, especially since they are one dimensional.

It’s always dangerous to back a significant road favorite, especially after they are coming off of a home primetime TV win. The spot screams Marshall here, but Central Florida’s defense is just too good to fade them. The Thundering Herd will bring everything they have tonight, but it remains to be seen if it will be enough to even challenge for the win.

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